2018 EPAC Season

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cycloneye
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#301 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:25 pm

Ntxw wrote:
cycloneye wrote:I am saying it now.Future Bud will be the first major cane of season and not Aletta and it could come closer to Mexican coast and Cabo San Lucas.


Aletta is making a run for it. Might be Cat 3 or more by morning.


Yes,it has been a surprise. If so,then Bud will be the second major.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#302 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:00 pm

Made a brief mention of actual SST temps in the Aletta thread but would be more appropriate here.

Current SSTs in the EPAC

Image

One year ago (June)

Image

July of last year

Image


...there's no official poll for the EPAC season but I'm guessing quite a few majors this season for the basin.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#303 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:33 pm

Thankfully,the waters near Cabo San Lucas / Baja California Sur (BCS) are not so warm because it would be a strong hurricane making landfall there but instead is a strong Tropical Storm Bud.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#304 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:58 pm

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/d ... Timeseries

SST's 3rd highest on record in May and 2nd in April. Behind 2016 (in May) and 2015 (in both months) only.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#305 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 08, 2018 12:37 am

70%-90%

An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave located
a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become more
organized since yesterday with a better defined surface circulation.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become conducive for development
by Saturday, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected
to form over the weekend while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#306 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:54 am

Aletta did it to major and pushing for Cat 4. 1/1/1 for season and Bud to follow.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#307 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 08, 2018 5:21 am

Some hints on the 00z Euro for a 3rd system following future Bud.

Incoming strong CCKW:
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1005020290928271360




Bud could become an early season monster since the CCKW will be over it as it develops.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#308 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 08, 2018 5:32 am

No invest yet with a 70% in 2 days?
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#309 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:19 am

80%-90%

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec has increased during the past several hours, but remains
disorganized. Upper-level winds are forecast to become conducive
for development later today, and a tropical depression or tropical
storm is expected to form over the weekend while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season: INVEST 92E is up

#310 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:09 am

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2018 ACE: NATL - 2.4 - EPAC - 5.1 - WPAC - 13.0 - NIO - 11.5 - SHEM - 187.2

#311 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 08, 2018 12:46 pm

Even if it was a major cane,Aletta is not going to get a lot of ACE units after it weakens to lift EPAC stats as it was not a longtracker so it all depends on Bud to get a few more units as it also wont be a longtracker.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#312 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:38 pm

Both systems seems like your usual early season major hurricanes here. SSTs aren't warm enough northwest yet and shear a bit to high for long tracking. These are your usual eastern 10-15 ACE storms IMO. It will probably be a few more weeks to possibly a month before true long-trackers of the EPAC+CPAC
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#313 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:39 pm

Possibly another area of interest as the Euro for the past 2 runs shows it spinning up into a weak TD. Had it in previous runs as well.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#314 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:39 pm

Ntxw wrote:Both systems seems like your usual early season major hurricanes here. SSTs aren't warm enough northwest yet and shear a bit to high for long tracking. These are your usual eastern 10-15 ACE storms IMO. It will probably be a few more weeks to possibly a month before true long-trackers of the EPAC+CPAC


Wait til July for EPAC majors that make it to 130-145W. In the meantime, enjoy WNW to NW major hurricanes near Soccoro Island.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#315 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:43 pm

Last few EPS runs have hinted at another system forming June 22ish.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#316 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:56 pm

Here is 997mb Carlotta on the 12Z Euro:

Image

Peaks at 994mb on the next frame.

PC: Ryan Maue - http://www.weathermodels.com
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#317 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:07 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Here is 997mb Carlotta on the 12Z Euro:

Image

Peaks at 994mb on the next frame.

PC: Ryan Maue - http://www.weathermodels.com

The "Carlotta" on the Euro appears to be convective feedback. No other models develop it and the genesis seems suspect.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#318 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:11 pm

:uarrow:

The vort is there on the 12z GFS. Just weaker:

Image
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#319 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:11 am

Bud becomes second major. Season now at 2/2/2
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#320 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 12, 2018 5:04 am

Very impressive start to the season with two Category 4's in June and that has ramped up the ACE to 18.1 as of 0300z which is well above average. The normal reading for this date is 4.4 ACE units.
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