2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:12 pm

A new year is with us so let's see how the models do.The GFS paralell will be upgraded this year and the new NCEP version will be up in 2019.
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Re: 2018 Tropics Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2 Postby Alyono » Fri Jan 05, 2018 6:09 pm

EC actually shows a brief spin up next week in the east Gulf next week. Forms near the Yucatan and then moves to the NE. Most intense between the panels provided on Tropical Tidbits

Think it went to Canadian school
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Re: 2018 Tropics Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#3 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jan 05, 2018 6:32 pm

Wow hard to believe it shows development there in January.
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Re: 2018 Tropics Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#4 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jan 05, 2018 6:46 pm

Surprise,surprise.

Image

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Re: 2018 Tropics Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#5 Postby NotSparta » Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:52 pm

Alyono wrote:EC actually shows a brief spin up next week in the east Gulf next week. Forms near the Yucatan and then moves to the NE. Most intense between the panels provided on Tropical Tidbits

Think it went to Canadian school


Probably a ghost, hard to believe something could form there in January
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Re: 2018 Tropics Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#6 Postby AJC3 » Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:34 am

No surprise at all, really. I'm guessing it's pretty likely that a surface low will form somewhere in the central or eastern GOMEX, since it's completely baroclinc, generated by a 500MB cutoff that drops south anomalously far south. If we're talking about the weak/transient spinup that forms to the SE of the main GOMEX (deep layer) low, that's simply lowering of pressures through the strong jet forced ascent that the upper level reflection of the cutoff low is producing in that area. Anything in that area would be REALLY short lived. LOL
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Re: 2018 Tropics Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#7 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Jan 06, 2018 1:32 pm

Interesting. Reminds me of a system from February 2012 which got a mention on the TWO but never developed.
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Re: 2018 Tropics Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 06, 2018 1:37 pm

According to the 12z Euro run the weak low begins in the Western Caribbean and from there goes fast north but AJC3 (Tony) explained it well.

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Re: 2018 Tropics Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#9 Postby AJC3 » Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:42 pm

12Z guidance pretty much unanimous in running a very weak baroclinic surface low northward along or offshore the Florida east coast Wednesday night-Thursday.
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Re: 2018 Tropics Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#10 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:30 am

The 00z Euro looks to be the most intense run yet with the low pressure off the Florida east coast on Thursday.

Image

Image

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#11 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:45 am

TheStormExpert wrote:The 00z Euro looks to be the most intense run yet with the low pressure off the Florida east coast on Thursday.

http://i66.tinypic.com/ae5i4k.jpg

http://i64.tinypic.com/286y980.jpg

http://i66.tinypic.com/i6fb01.jpg

Saw this earlier, it looks very interesting. Tight closed low with what appears to be a shallow warm core. Highly doubt it will become anything tropical, but after Alex and Arlene, who knows? :lol:
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Re: 2018 Tropics Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#12 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:39 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:The 00z Euro looks to be the most intense run yet with the low pressure off the Florida east coast on Thursday.

http://i66.tinypic.com/ae5i4k.jpg

http://i64.tinypic.com/286y980.jpg

http://i66.tinypic.com/i6fb01.jpg

Saw this earlier, it looks very interesting. Tight closed low with what appears to be a shallow warm core. Highly doubt it will become anything tropical, but after Alex and Arlene, who knows? :lol:

Of course the 12z run goes the other way with no development.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#13 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:26 pm

NOAA kicks 2018 with Massive Supercomputer upgrade

As part of this,GFS will have a big upgrade in 2019.

Excerpt:

January 9, 2018 NOAA’s combined weather and climate supercomputing system will be among the 30 fastest in the world, with the ability to process 8 quadrillion calculations per second, when two Dell systems are added to the IBMs and Crays at data centers in Reston, Virginia, and Orlando, Florida, later this month.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
With this upgrade, U.S. weather supercomputing paves the way for NOAA’s National Weather Service to implement the next generation Global Forecast System, known as the “American Model,” next year. Already one of the leading global weather prediction models, the GFS delivers hourly forecasts every six hours. The new GFS will have significant upgrades in 2019, including increased resolution to allow NOAA to run the model at 9 kilometers and 128 levels out to 16 days, compared to the current run of 13 kilometers and 64 levels out to 10 days. The revamped GFS will run in research mode on the new supercomputers during this year’s hurricane season.

http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa- ... er-upgrade
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#14 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:26 am

ECMWF and CMC both have a disturbance or even a weak TC in the deep tropical EPAC. GFS has a disturbance. It has been there on and off for multiple runs. Seriously, it’s January...

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Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#15 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:58 pm

Looks like tropical tidbits added ICON. Does anybody know what ICON is? Looks like it is a German model. I have heard of it in some of the NHC tropical discussions.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=244
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#16 Postby NotSparta » Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:18 pm

Euro showing TD in EPAC :lol:

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#17 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:56 pm

gatorcane wrote:Looks like tropical tidbits added ICON. Does anybody know what ICON is? Looks like it is a German model. I have heard of it in some of the NHC tropical discussions.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=244


The NHC was probably referring to the Intensity CONsensus model, not the German model. The ICON tropical model is a combination of the LGEM, interpolated GFDL, interpolated HWRF, and DSHIPS models.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#18 Postby BYG Jacob » Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:36 pm

wxman57 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Looks like tropical tidbits added ICON. Does anybody know what ICON is? Looks like it is a German model. I have heard of it in some of the NHC tropical discussions.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=244


The NHC was probably referring to the Intensity CONsensus model, not the German model. The ICON tropical model is a combination of the LGEM, interpolated GFDL, interpolated HWRF, and DSHIPS models.

How accurate is it?
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#19 Postby aperson » Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:12 am

gfs has been badly wanting to make this happen. Must be a testament to how ridiculous the NAO h5 gradient is setting up to be.

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#20 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:48 am

12z GFS develops a subtropical-like low over the central Atlantic next week.
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