2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1021 Postby Siker » Sat Jun 16, 2018 11:27 am

Haha, the UKMET text TC tracker claims a TD develops at 138 hours at 25.1N, 103.3W. That's practically in the center of Mexico.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1022 Postby SoupBone » Sat Jun 16, 2018 12:44 pm

So what models are showing what on the tail end of this system going into late next week? Can we get some cliffs?
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1023 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Jun 17, 2018 2:08 pm

12z ECMWF shows a 1000mb low developing over west-central Texas.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1024 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Jun 18, 2018 11:50 pm

00z GFS develops a tropical/subtropical storm from a decaying front in the middle of next week. 12z Euro also showed a potential setup for some development.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1025 Postby GCANE » Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:03 am

I know its early yet, but that's a pretty decent wave that just came off Africa.
Held up nicely hitting the water.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1026 Postby GCANE » Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:08 am

Keeping an eye on the wave at 10N 55W.
Nice 850mb vort with good UL conditions.
Convection firing up.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1027 Postby GCANE » Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:15 am

Anticyclone developing tomorrow in the lower Carib.
Will expand out to the west Carib over the following couple days.
This will coincide with the wave firing off now at 55W and moving into the lower Carib.
Watching the model runs to see if they latch onto this.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1028 Postby Nimbus » Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:27 am

GCANE wrote:Keeping an eye on the wave at 10N 55W.
Nice 850mb vort with good UL conditions.
Convection firing up.


The convection is getting sheared NE exposing the sharp wave.
Does appear to be some storm relative circulation and no doubt there is low pressure at the surface.
Climo usually predicts a lot of shear off SA in the Caribbean so the models may hold off for a couple days.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1029 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:00 am

This wave at 55W would be timing it right once it gets to the western Carib. Sea for possible MJO enhancement and the ECM ENS 500mb Anom with a ridge over eastern NA for possible development IMO.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1030 Postby GCANE » Wed Jun 20, 2018 12:28 pm

Looks like the wave is trying to climb a little bit.
May clear the SA Coast.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1031 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:56 pm

Will need to watch for potential subtropical/tropical development off the east coast. Appears unlikely at this time but models often struggle to identify systems like this. Operational 18z GFS appears to develop a system on a decaying front and transitions it into a tropical/subtropical storm near New England. 12z EPS was at about a 15% chance of genesis.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1032 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:17 pm

00Z GFS appears to develop a weak tropical cyclone off the coast of North Carolina next week.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1033 Postby GCANE » Thu Jun 21, 2018 1:45 pm

A low-level vort may come off Africa Tuesday.
So far, GFS is showing as a cold core.

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1034 Postby Steve » Thu Jun 21, 2018 11:59 pm

No storm model support but all major MJO forecasts are in Phase 2 in the next 3-7 or 8 days. Maybe some energy from a boundary intersecting with a wave to come? Idk. But Phase 2 this time of year can be indicative of appropriate conditions or something like a tropical surge coming up. Who knows? Going for it is progged high pressure in NE Canada. Arguing against is a cold trough in the central US. If by Monday there is anything suspicious around on satellite, it would have to be watched.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1035 Postby GCANE » Fri Jun 22, 2018 4:50 am

Very strong MCS fired off in southern Mali and moved thru Guinea.
Could be a harbinger of something especially once the dust settles.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1036 Postby NDG » Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:29 am

Tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean may have to be watched early next week for possible development if the GFS is correct of its energy tracking towards the Bahamas/SE US where it may find better upper level conditions.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1037 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:36 am

NDG wrote:Tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean may have to be watched early next week for possible development if the GFS is correct of its energy tracking towards the Bahamas/SE US where it may find better upper level conditions.

The 00z ECMWF also showed an area of vorticity developing near Florida at the end of the run. Many GEFS and EPS members are showing weak lows as well. Still long range so we will have to see if the timeframe moves up and models come more on board.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1038 Postby NDG » Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:54 am

CyclonicFury wrote:
NDG wrote:Tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean may have to be watched early next week for possible development if the GFS is correct of its energy tracking towards the Bahamas/SE US where it may find better upper level conditions.

The 00z ECMWF also showed an area of vorticity developing near Florida at the end of the run. Many GEFS and EPS members are showing weak lows as well. Still long range so we will have to see if the timeframe moves up and models come more on board.


I was going to say that if the Euro is showing that solution in its 7-10 day range that it would probably be from another TW but looking at the GFS closely it also shows this piece of energy to hand around the Bahamas through the end of next week.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1039 Postby Siker » Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:19 pm

12z EPS for that disturbance in 7-10 days:

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1040 Postby Alyono » Sat Jun 23, 2018 2:24 am

EC tries to develop something in the northern GUlf at day 9-10. Comes from the general area of troughiness in the region
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