2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[wxman57]

Development chances appear quite slim. Maybe some rain for Florida.

[CyclonicFury]

Still too soon to really tell what will happen. Still talking about something 8-10 days out. However, there is a signal in the models for a weak area of vorticity in the NE GOM in about 8-10 days. Weak development possible, but too soon to really tell.

[Alyono]

12Z Canadian develops it, but keeps it east of Florida, shoving it into Georgia

GFS tried to develop it, but the system remains just north of the Gulf

[Steve]

Canadian has a situation where a low pressure area exits off the mid-Atlantic coast, moves s, sw, w but inland across South Georgia and the rest of the Gulf South. It’s sort of the Ivan Part 2 track, but farther south to start and farther north when it cuts across. With a trough across the Eastern US, I guess it’s plausible that in a week or so that moves out and is replaced by high pressure toward the end of next week (a piece of energy tails off from departing low pressure). Whether it happens or not is anyone’s guess.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 62312&fh=6

The EC yesterday showed an area moving in toward FL from the SE/ESE around the same time frame. So source regions are different.

FWIW, GFS has a little hint of something moving west across the north gulf.

[Alyono]

EC has it in the GUlf at day 10. Borderline TD

[wxman57]

Take a look at the 500mb heights/vorticity and compare GFS & Euro. Both drive a mid-level low westward into North Carolina around the 30th/1st. Both have a 500mb trof extending SSW into the NE Gulf with a much weaker low there. With increased thunderstorm activity likely given this potential pattern, there would be a non-zero chance of tropical development. I'd say 10% on the high end.

[Alyono]

EC ensembles have a 38% chance of development with a 10-30% chance of a TS

[Steve]

Looks like the European has a deeper trough in the west with another center of high pressure building across Kansas and Missouri. I think you maybe have a pattern situation where you have to look South or southeast of the high ahead of that in the pattern which would be Bahamas/FL/Eastern Gulf. Also, based on the European’s 500mb pattern, a building high over the plains, there is a strong chance of anything that might be there crossing the north or central Gulf westward. CMC has it overland, but the idea is there. I don’t think you could even rule out Texas if anything is there. 10 Days out is July 3, but if the ecmwf is clued in, it will be interesting to watch and see how the pieces come jnto place.

?

Edit to say I just watched Saturday Summary on Weatherbell. Joe said he’s looking at the area off to the SE of FL to migrate up that way in several days. Not a surprise that he’s going with the Euro’s idea though he shows the GFS maps and what they are doing with the heights.

[chaser1]

Looks like the European has a deeper trough in the west with another center of high pressure building across Kansas and Missouri. I think you maybe have a pattern situation where you have to look South or southeast of the high ahead of that in the pattern which would be Bahamas/FL/Eastern Gulf. Also, based on the European’s 500mb pattern, a building high over the plains, there is a strong chance of anything that might be there crossing the north or central Gulf westward. CMC has it overland, but the idea is there. I don’t think you could even rule out Texas if anything is there. 10 Days out is July 3, but if the ecmwf is clued in, it will be interesting to watch and see how the pieces come jnto place.

I could see such an evolution take place. Perhaps something developing as its beginning to move onshore Central East Coast Florida. One of those systems that actually deepens while crossing the peninsula perhaps? Then potentially in the Gulf, an potential outcome similar to a "poor-man's" Elena. Possibly first threatening the N. Fla. Gulf Coast, but then being shoved west and a potential threat to the entire N. Gulf Coast clear to Texas maybe.

[Alyono]

holy INSANITY from the Euro

Has a HURRICANE plowing into North Carolina

[Kingarabian]

holy INSANITY from the Euro

Has a HURRICANE plowing into North Carolina

What a whopper. Not too much EPS support, but the S/SE USA coast needs to be monitored late next week.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS not showing the system at 144 hours.

If this is not a phantom from the Euro, expect 5-6 runs before the GFS shows anything.

[Siker]

There’s a mess of energy that will linger around the Southeast for days once that trough lifts out in two days. Euro has mostly been showing a later Gulf development like the 06z GFS seems to be. Earlier development off the Southeast coast would make that development less likely.

Maue’s EPS probs rocketed to 60% for a depression off the Carolinas in 4 days but only 10% for a tropical storm beyond that.

[TheStormExpert]

I’m not buying into the Euro just yet. Remember the TS it had randomly developed off the East-Central FL Coast about a week or so ago?

[stormlover2013]

I don’t buy into any till about 4 days out

[NDG]

I’m not buying into the Euro just yet. Remember the TS it had randomly developed off the East-Central FL Coast about a week or so ago?

I agree, the Euro loves forecasting phantom storms to develop off troughs in this area, wait and see at the moment.

[cycloneye]

@BigJoeBastardi
http://Weatherbell.com stated idea this year, IN CLOSE developments, not total number or ace. Could get demonstration of later this week or next off SE coast or ne Gulf ( IOW in close) SST there above normal, MJO, and overall pattern give credence . ECMWF starting to see

[Hypercane_Kyle]

holy INSANITY from the Euro

Has a HURRICANE plowing into North Carolina

Timing and location is similar to Hurricane Arthur in 2014.

[drezee]

I’m not buying into the Euro just yet. Remember the TS it had randomly developed off the East-Central FL Coast about a week or so ago?

Like any model, run to run consistency is key. The euro also plowed a hurricane into Texas for one run in this last mess of a tropical wave...made me lose a bet to wxman57. Yes, what is you favorite type of coke, wxman57?

[LarryWx]

holy INSANITY from the Euro

Has a HURRICANE plowing into North Carolina

What a whopper. Not too much EPS support, but the S/SE USA coast needs to be monitored late next week.

The 0Z Euro’s mid 990s mb TC 200 miles SE of the NC OB at hour 156 is almost definitely fake news. This reminds me of that fake cyclone the Euro had earlier this month forming a mere 25 miles offshore the E coast of FL moving south, which I also called fake and was. This one isn't as obvious a fake admittedly, but I still highly doubt this one is real. For one thing, the prior Euro run had nothing of the sort. Also, neither the 0z/6Z GFS nor the 0Z CMC has anything like that. Furthermore, only 2 other members of the 50 member 0Z EPS and no members of the last few GEFS had anything of similar strength. The 0Z ICON had something similar at hour 126 but the 6Z at hour 120 dropped it. Also, the CMC at 12Z yesterday had something further south but the 0Z dropped that. Future runs of those models may show it again. So, don't be surprised. If this were August or Sept, I might give it a little more credibility. But this is late June, a very quiet time of year there. Climo is always in the back of my mind when analyzing possibilities:

June 21-30 TC tracks since 1851: only one in the last 167 years on record to have formed within 200 miles of where the 0Z Euro has it forming:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/jun_21_30.png

I’d be highly surprised if the 12Z Euro has anything like this but we’ll see. Even if it does, I seriously doubt I'd buy into it. This feeling is despite the well above normal SSTs in that area.