2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Ntxw]

Basically is. Some were hoping the upgrades and new experimental model would work things about and be better than past, but doesn't seem like some of the issues have been all that well fixed. Haven't seen the Euro cranking out hurricanes as the frames near as the American Global has.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z FV3 develops a very tiny 996 mb TS 75 miles offshore in the Apalachee Bay 5/21. That looks like still another phantom. The SSTs up there are not even warm enough for tropical development! I have a feeling this is going to be a looooong season of phantoms. :(

Isn't this basically the norm for May and June though?

I agree with you and Ntxw about June to some extent and even more for October on the GFS, but May? I don't ever recall supposed phantoms dominating May like this before.

[CyclonicFury]

There seems to be a consensus among nearly all of the global models that a Central American Gyre is likely to form. Most models develop a broad low in the NW Caribbean as a result in about 8-9 days.

[Kingarabian]

1004mb low on the 00z Euro @ 240 hours. I wonder if it's a possible phantom on the Euro as well since it keeps pushing development back.

[AJC3]

00Z ECM is a little stronger at H240 with its depiction of the NW Caribbean low. It now has it down to about 1004MB, a little SE of Cozumel and moving slowly NNW to N.

[NDG]

This is nothing new when we could be dealing with monsoonal development right after the MJO passes through our part of the world, development usually happens later than sooner, the Euro agrees with the GFS, and it has also been extending the timeline.

[ronjon]

Starting to build global model support for a western caribbean system east of the Yuc or near the NE tip of the Yuc in 9-10 days moving north into the GOM. We have the new GFS, GFS, ECM, and now GEM on board with various degrees of low pressure development.

[gatorcane]

Starting to build global model support for a western caribbean system east of the Yuc or near the NE tip of the Yuc in 9-10 days moving north into the GOM. We have the new GFS, GFS, ECM, and now GEM on board with various degrees of low pressure development.

Yep overnight models coming in more bullish with some good consensus. Latest GFS much more bullish, similar to the 00Z ECMWF but much stronger. It does indeed look like development chances are increasing. Yes the GFS spun up unrealistic CAT 2/3 phantom storms but may just have got the general idea of development correct after all.

[Ivanhater]

Euro certainly looks like something forming in the NW Caribbean

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/mi ... 0000z.html

[wxman57]

There's enough of a model consensus now for development in the western Caribbean Sea around next Friday that we need to keep an eye on that region next week. Let's see if convection begins to increase across the area over the next 3-5 days.

[TheStormExpert]

Just for laughs.

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/996738207831207939

[cycloneye]

Note= We will stick posting model runs in this thread and not make a new thread for area that they say will have a chance to develop until one of the following two things happen.
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1-There has to be an incipient area of disturbed weather.
2-A STWO has to be issued.
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Thank you for your cooperation on this.

[cycloneye]

Good discussion here about GFS phantoms.

@splillo
After a run or two had backed off the full-blown Gulf hurricane, the GFS refuses to give up. Latest 6z produces a sub-960mb TC at 312hrs.

We're going into day TEN of runs with long-range TCs; a fixture of the model at long lead times.

This is a problem.

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/996769620987129859






@mattlanza
Replying to @splillo
Unusable.Almost in totality. Ensemble mean & spread, particularly from ECMWF has been of some operational value I think. I have issues with GEFS guidance too though.

 https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/996770179945254914





‏

@TropicalTidbits
Well having the MJO in phase 1 during May throws gasoline on the problem, guaranteed.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/996772914354688002

[cycloneye]

After discussion above,Levi Cowan tweets this.

@TropicalTidbits
Despite GFS bias, anomalous convection is likely in the W. Carib. as upper-level forcing perturbs the region for next 6 days. More than one model shows a vorticity anomaly creeping northward near CA in 6-9 days, which is not a crazy solution. That's the extent of what we can say.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/996775367921885184

[SFLcane]

As wxman57 stated previously with some consensus now its time to start monitoring the western carib.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS coming in with a 1005MB low only 5 days away now. The vorticity appears to be on the northeastern edge of the overall monsoon gyre:

[cycloneye]

at 12z GFS run,things begin to evolve by next Monday.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS has a slightly stronger trough in the EGOM and a slightly more amplified short-wave over SE Canada (to weaken the Bermuda High a bit more) so we'll see if the result is this system ends up a bit more east in the NW Caribbean rather than more west over the Yucatan / Southern GOM.

Nice anticyclone sitting right over the low on the Honduras/Nicaragua coast at 180 hours:

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS looks to move it straight into Honduras near the Honduras/Nicaragua border.

Edit: 12z looks to be much weaker than 06z.

[gatorcane]

Heading N in the NW Caribbean with increasing vorticity at 228 hours: