2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Weather150]

00z Euro was out of the blue. I want to see consistency.

[LarryWx]

00z Euro was out of the blue. I want to see consistency.

Especially when the June 21-30 TC tracks since 1851 show only one in the last 167 years on record to have formed within 200 miles of where the 0Z Euro has it forming:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/jun_21_30.png

[Siker]

12z ICON develops it like the 00z, after the 06z dropped it.

[Weather150]

12z ICON.

[Siker]

Termination of the 12z ICON after looping around:

[Weather150]

12z GFS not showing much other than a very weak low pressure that comes off the coast.

[Weather150]

12z CMC has development at 90 hrs.

[Siker]

12z GFS not showing much other than a very weak low pressure that comes off the coast.

Energy gets stretched out and scooped up by a trough on the GFS. On the ICON and Euro, this trough causes a loop but not a full recurve of the storm that they form.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GEFS has zero members out of 21 with an under 1004 mb low off the US E coast through hour 192. No support there and I’m still calling it fake as of now with long term climo always in the back of my mind giving me high confidence.

[Weather150]

12z UKMET doesn't show any development.

[gatorcane]

All of the activity is on the EPAC side for the foreseeable future. But once the EPAC slows it should be the Atlantic’s turn. Might have to wait until August but something off the SE US coast spinning up from a front between now and then like the Euro has been hinting not out of the question. Those African waves look rather robust this year again by the way. They are just developing on the EPAC side for now.

[LarryWx]

As noted above, the CMC and ICON are (not surprisingly) back with something at 12Z with a closed surface low forming near the upper SC coast at hour 72. However, it forming right near the coast looks suspicious and the ICON has yet to impress me in the tropics. Also, the CMC isn’t the best model. Even the 12Z CMC ensembles have zero of 21 members with a low having lower than 1004 mb strength off the SE coast through hour 192+. Let’s see if the 12Z Euro holds onto it. Even if it does, I won’t be buying it yet, if ever.

[drezee]

My initial thoughts would say the best shot would be near FL, if any. Climo says wait til August for anything to be concerning...

[CyclonicFury]

12z Euro appears to have a TS off NC on Wednesday. Hard to discount the possibility of development when the Euro has shown it for consecutive runs.

[Weather150]

12z Euro.

[Siker]

This could well be a scenario like we saw last week with the Euro’s “tropical storm” over West Texas, where the Euro is much too strong given land interaction. But we need only look back 4 years to find Hurricane Arthur, which was an organized non-tropical System that moved offshore of Georgia in the first week of July and quickly became tropical.

[Alyono]

EC tripling down now on development

[Alyono]

looks to head out to sea quickly on this run

[jconsor]

If you look carefully, the development on the ECMWF is linked to a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) currently over Missouri that moves east and ends up off the NC coast. The ECMWF and mesoscale models such as the NAM have trended much stronger on this MCV in the short-term.



As others have noted, Arthur in 2014 also formed from a MCV that moved off the GA coast and took on tropical characteristics.

[Siker]

If you look carefully, the development on the ECMWF is linked to a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) currently over Missouri that moves east and ends up off the NC coast. The ECMWF and mesoscale models such as the NAM have trended much stronger on this MCV in the short-term.




As others have noted, Arthur in 2014 also formed from a MCV that moved off the GA coast and took on tropical characteristics.

Thanks for that, was having trouble pinning down the root disturbance.