2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[SoupBone]

So on this 00Z run, it has a system forming right off the tip of the Yucatan, and has it head north toward the Eastern GoM, toward the Florida Panhandle. No Texas system this time.

EDIT: Actually, looking at it in motion, I think that's 92L that then regenerates.

[Cpv17]

So on this 00Z run, it has a system forming right off the tip of the Yucatan, and has it head north toward the Eastern GoM, toward the Florida Panhandle. No Texas system this time.

EDIT: Actually, looking at it in motion, I think that's 92L that then regenerates.

Yeah that’s 92L. 0z GFS has the system around hour 204-240, but doesn’t do anything with it.

[NDG]

"The GFS and some ensemble members from the European model suggest that tropical cyclone development is possible over the western Gulf of Mexico during Week-2, which has been indicated in our forecast."

So they're basing is strictly from model runs?

That should not be a surprise to you, forecasters do that all the time based off models.

It's not. Maybe I should rephrase the question. Are there other factors besides the GFS and a few ensembles used to add this as a moderate threat on the chart?

I am sure they are also considering climatology, the BOC is usually a hot spot this time of the year.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1037650180756008960

[JPmia]

I know none of the models have indicated such a concern yet, but should we be concerned about the Upper Low in the Bahamas?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=nwatl&product=ir

[NDG]

I know none of the models have indicated such a concern yet, but should we be concerned about the Upper Low in the Bahamas?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=nwatl&product=ir

The only model support with development is the Canadian, so chances are very small. IMO.

[northjaxpro]

I will point out that there is definitely an increase in convection over the Bahamas today compared to yesterday. We are in the peak of the season right now, and this area being close to the the Southeast Atlantic coast warrants monitoring.

[JPmia]

:uarrow: I will point out that there is definitely an increase in convection over the Bahamas today compared to yesterday. We are in the peak of the season right now, and this area being close to the the Southeast Atlantic coast warrants monitoring.

It definitely looks suspicious.
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

[MetroMike]

:uarrow: I will point out that there is definitely an increase in convection over the Bahamas today compared to yesterday. We are in the peak of the season right now, and this area being close to the the Southeast Atlantic coast warrants monitoring.

It definitely looks suspicious.
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

The link is just the homepage. Anything more specific?

[wxman22]

Even though models have backed off on development of the wave that gets into the western Gulf late next week,it still should be watched imo as an increasing number of the Euro ensembles are developing a system out of it.

[CrazyC83]

The African wave train looks to be not done yet either - the system behind Helene really needs to be watched too. Could a system actually develop before leaving Africa?

[TheStormExpert]

The African wave train looks to be not done yet either - the system behind Helene really needs to be watched too. Could a system actually develop before leaving Africa?

Models though aren’t enthusiastic with anything behind Florence, Helene, and potential Isaac.

[HurricaneEric]

CMC (yes, I know) seems to think something else will be coming off Africa in hours 210-216. GFS and Euro have showed zilch after the Florence/Helene/Isaac triad.




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[cycloneye]

1pm EDT Monday: Due to abnormal traffic, some model products are populating slowly right now. I'm working on the issue.

[HurricaneEric]

Is this an upper level low off the US east coast at hr 168 of the 12z Euro?





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[sphelps8681]

GFS is showing at hour 384 a low near the yucatan. 999 entering the GOM. I know it is so fantasy at this point but maybe something to watch.

[HurricaneEric]

To add to that, this was hour 240 on the 12z Euro... looks like a wave makes the splash down off the African coast at a pretty low latitude. If anything, the models are starting to hint that the activity may still continue to the end of September.




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[CyclonicFury]

To add to that, this was hour 240 on the 12z Euro... looks like a wave makes the splash down off the African coast at a pretty low latitude. If anything, the models are starting to hint that the activity may still continue to the end of September.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180912/83dd473c7e056bde09a7f1c5baf91421.png


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I wouldn't be surprised if we squeezed out one more storm from the MDR before the end of September, which would probably be the last of the year.

[Kazmit]

To add to that, this was hour 240 on the 12z Euro... looks like a wave makes the splash down off the African coast at a pretty low latitude. If anything, the models are starting to hint that the activity may still continue to the end of September.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180912/83dd473c7e056bde09a7f1c5baf91421.png


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I wouldn't be surprised if we squeezed out one more storm from the MDR before the end of September, which would probably be the last of the year.

Why would it be the last of the year? There are still two more months of hurricane season after that.

[CyclonicFury]

To add to that, this was hour 240 on the 12z Euro... looks like a wave makes the splash down off the African coast at a pretty low latitude. If anything, the models are starting to hint that the activity may still continue to the end of September.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180912/83dd473c7e056bde09a7f1c5baf91421.png


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I wouldn't be surprised if we squeezed out one more storm from the MDR before the end of September, which would probably be the last of the year.

Why would it be the last of the year? There are still two more months of hurricane season after that.

I'm not talking about the last storm of the Atlantic, I expect several more. I am talking about the MDR specifically which rarely has activity after the end of September.