2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Kazmit]

I wouldn't be surprised if we squeezed out one more storm from the MDR before the end of September, which would probably be the last of the year.

Why would it be the last of the year? There are still two more months of hurricane season after that.

I'm not talking about the last storm of the Atlantic, I expect several more. I am talking about the MDR specifically which rarely has activity after the end of September.

True, that makes a lot more sense.

[HurricaneEric]

Not sure what to make of this, but from hours 120-240 there seems to be growing chances of cyclone genesis in the SW Caribbean:





Also, the 00z Euro last night has a 1005mb (weak TS?) low at a low latitude in the MDR.





Would seem to come around the end of September which Ben Noll has been talking about in terms of an uptick in activity across the basin.



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[TheStormExpert]

Yeah the recent GFS runs has been hinting at extreme long-range development in the SW Caribbean in the final days of September. Not surprised considering that after a week or two of quiet conditions after the currently four active tropical cyclones leave the picture things should pick-up again.

[CourierPR]

Yeah the recent GFS runs has been hinting at extreme long-range development in the SW Caribbean in the final days of September. Not surprised considering that after a week or two of quiet conditions after the currently four active tropical cyclones leave the picture things should pick-up again.

Met. Joe Bastardi tweeted about this this morning. In fact, he alluded to it days ago.

[Hurricaneman]

Also look for another subtropical development near where Joyce formed according to the models

[abajan]

...
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180914/27cab31b33c0225760b9a83258a91ba7.png

Would seem to come around the end of September which Ben Noll has been talking about in terms of an uptick in activity across the basin.

12z Euro isn't showing that system in the mid Atlantic.

[MetroMike]

Yeah the recent GFS runs has been hinting at extreme long-range development in the SW Caribbean in the final days of September. Not surprised considering that after a week or two of quiet conditions after the currently four active tropical cyclones leave the picture things should pick-up again.

Met. Joe Bastardi tweeted about this this morning. In fact, he alluded to it days ago.

Yes the 18Z GFS has it coming north over Cuba on the 30th at runs end. GFS has not shown many phantom storms lately so bears watching.

[Hammy]

Yeah the recent GFS runs has been hinting at extreme long-range development in the SW Caribbean in the final days of September. Not surprised considering that after a week or two of quiet conditions after the currently four active tropical cyclones leave the picture things should pick-up again.

Met. Joe Bastardi tweeted about this this morning. In fact, he alluded to it days ago.

Yes the 18Z GFS has it coming north over Cuba on the 30th at runs end. GFS has not shown many phantom storms lately so bears watching.

Interesting thing I observed earlier with the GFS, at least in the deep tropics, while it misses storms it's read the pattern with developing systems pretty far out, but a bit ahead of time. It actually showed two systems at once near the end of the run in the last week of August, and of course this came true a few weeks later, so entirely plausible it's right here as well but it occurs in the second week of October.

[gatorcane]

How the 18Z GFS ends with an intensifying storm heading north. The FV3 GFS has a system in the Caribbean albeit weaker and a bit more east. I agree the Western Caribbean bears watching toward end of month:

[Hurricaneman]

How the 18Z GFS ends with an intensifying storm heading north. The FV3 GFS has a system in the Caribbean albeit weaker and a bit more east. I agree the Western Caribbean bears watching toward end of month:

https://s8.postimg.cc/aw90zdfp1/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_52.png

I’m wondering if this is also the wave the Euro develops but the GFS is in the western Caribbean while the Euro is at 40w or is that a different feature

[Emmett_Brown]

The only action the models are showing in the medium range (as in up to 240 hours out) is the reincarnation of Florence a good distance off the east coast as her low level center loops back into the area.

[WeatherEmperor]

Very long range on the 12z Euro



Navgem has it too in a slightly different position



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[LarryWx]

The last several GEFS are hinting at activity in the W Caribbean near the end of the month into very early Oct. 'Tis the season.

[bob rulz]

One of these days the Caribbean is going to live up to its potential again. Aside from Matthew, the last time I feel that the Caribbean had real "classic" storms was with Dean and Felix in 2007. Only other major Caribbean storms I can think of in the last decade were Otto and Gustav. I suppose Maria counts, but I'm thinking more of the home-grown Caribbean hurricanes, or the ones that rapidly intensify as they get into the Caribbean.

[TheStormExpert]

One of these days the Caribbean is going to live up to its potential again. Aside from Matthew, the last time I feel that the Caribbean had real "classic" storms was with Dean and Felix in 2007. Only other major Caribbean storms I can think of in the last decade were Otto and Gustav. I suppose Maria counts, but I'm thinking more of the home-grown Caribbean hurricanes, or the ones that rapidly intensify as they get into the Caribbean.

I can think of a few more. Omar, and Paloma in 2008, Paula, and Tomas in 2010, and Rina in 2011.

But you’re right, it’s been awhile since we’ve seen that classic October Western Caribbean monster system, got to date back to October 2005 with Wilma.

[gatorcane]

The last several GEFS are hinting at activity in the W Caribbean near the end of the month into very early Oct. 'Tis the season.

[TheStormExpert]

EPS Ensembles favor East Pacific activity into early October FWIW.

[LarryWx]

:uarrow: EPS Ensembles favor East Pacific activity into early October FWIW.

Indeed, they do and perhaps that’s where any significant activity will be concentrated. But consider the possibility of a left bias playing a part in the EPS’ EPAC positioning. Then again, consider the possibility of a right bias in the GEFS causing it to concentrate on the W Caribbean. We’ll know the answer in a couple of weeks!

[CyclonicFury]

The GFS does seem to have a bias with gyre genesis in the Western Caribbean. It developed Alberto way too early as well as that hurricane in June which never verified. Until the operational Euro and/or UKMET come on board, it's going to be hard for me to take genesis in that region seriously.

[toad strangler]

:uarrow: EPS Ensembles favor East Pacific activity into early October FWIW.

Indeed, they do and perhaps that’s where any significant activity will be concentrated. But consider the possibility of a left bias playing a part in the EPS’ EPAC positioning. Then again, consider the possibility of a right bias in the GEFS causing it to concentrate on the W Caribbean. We’ll know the answer in a couple of weeks!

Pretty soon this is a climo area.