2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[NDG]

I'm hoping it happens to some extent. I think Texas needs some rain just not prolonged and I need a nice weekend. Sick of rain every weekend. Want to hit the pool or the bike. Hoping for some subsidence down here.

Regardless of development, there does seem that some much needed moisture is heading towards to at least SE TX next weekend.
As you can see below, the Euro is the one that pushes the system & moisture further west.

[Alyono]

12Z GFS makes no sense

Not going to have that well-defined of a center relocate This is a feedback issue. CMC more physically sound

[NDG]

12Z GFS makes no sense

Not going to have that well-defined of a center relocate This is a feedback issue. CMC more physically sound

It happened with Alberto.

[wxman22]

The GFS looks monsoonal fwiw.

[LarryWx]

Today, 6/10, in the NW (not SW) Caribbean had originally been the day the GFS/GEFS had been harping on for an actual TC to form (on runs as recently as a week or so ago) for several days of runs in a row followed by N movement into the EGOM threatening FL 6/11-13.

[fox13weather]

Based on trends for the past week. The GFS will have a tropical system in the western Gulf till October.

[Aric Dunn]

Today, 6/10, in the NW (not SW) Caribbean had originally been the day the GFS/GEFS had been harping on for an actual TC to form (on runs as recently as a week or so ago) for several days of runs in a row followed by N movement into the EGOM threatening FL 6/11-13.

it has always started with the vorticity and circulation in the SW carrib from the 9th to the 11th for the past 2 weeks. GFS has done very well with this.. vorticity and rotation are beginning to take shape in the SW carrib. This has probably been one the best and most consistent the GFS has been. barely ever wavering. Huge win for GFS especially if something does develop.

[Haris]

Today, 6/10, in the NW (not SW) Caribbean had originally been the day the GFS/GEFS had been harping on for an actual TC to form (on runs as recently as a week or so ago) for several days of runs in a row followed by N movement into the EGOM threatening FL 6/11-13.

it has always started with the vorticity and circulation in the SW carrib from the 9th to the 11th for the past 2 weeks. GFS has done very well with this.. vorticity and rotation are beginning to take shape in the SW carrib. This has probably been one the best and most consistent the GFS has been. barely ever wavering. Huge win for GFS especially if something does develop.

Still looks like TX is the most popular solution today. Scanning the models... I'm not too fond of a storm. Maybe a weak one. GFS just seems weird to me. Euro too weak. I dont know but not much progress since we last talked IMHO.

[Steve]

Most of the better MJO forecasts show it getting into Phase 2 in several days. Though they get there different ways, it could correlate with Gulf activity. I wouldn’t go so far as to bet even money on development yet, but things are lining up for potential.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[stormreader]

Based on trends for the past week. The GFS will have a tropical system in the western Gulf till October.

I'm not sure if that is really fair. If something comes from this system, then I wouldn't poo-poo what the GFS forecasts. It correctly forecast Alberto....timing was something of an issue, but for these types of systems, forming from the general ill-defined monsoonal flow, (and with Alberto we're talking about a May tropical storm) I think its more important that the GFS gets the call right about storm genesis. And it did with Alberto. Let's see if it gets the basic call right. Timing less important.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro looks like a rinse and repeat (i.e. no development).

[Aric Dunn]

Euro still just vorticity heading to South texas.

[gatorcane]

Some yellow paint day 5 in the BoC. Euro says “next!”

[stormlover2013]

until euro jumps on board I won’t jump on board

[Haris]

Euro remains consistent. I dont buy GFS at all

[stormlover2013]

Well gfs has been consistent also we are about to see which model sucks for this so called wave

[Aric Dunn]

Well gfs has been consistent also we are about to see which model sucks for this so called wave

Remember it is the GFS, CMC, Navgem, and ICON VS. UKMETand EURO...

[Haris]

Well gfs has been consistent also we are about to see which model sucks for this so called wave

ONE model is gonna BUST MISERABLY LOL

[Ntxw]

Based on trends for the past week. The GFS will have a tropical system in the western Gulf till October.

I'm not sure if that is really fair. If something comes from this system, then I wouldn't poo-poo what the GFS forecasts. It correctly forecast Alberto....timing was something of an issue, but for these types of systems, forming from the general ill-defined monsoonal flow, (and with Alberto we're talking about a May tropical storm) I think its more important that the GFS gets the call right about storm genesis. And it did with Alberto. Let's see if it gets the basic call right. Timing less important.

GFS can sniff out general activity in the longer range. While we paint this as a model war, Alberto is not a great example. Eventually the Euro did latch on to "Alberto" once it was within range, as well as the UKmet being onboard. After that it was track/intensity. The difference here is one model(s) heavily weighted often, just not developing within close range.