2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[CyclonicFury]

12Z EC is much weaker with the northern Gulf disturbance next week. Just a bit of rain. No TS development. Closer to what the GFS is predicting. Rainy 4th of July for SE TX, perhaps. Here's a side-by-side comparison:

http://wxman57.com/images/EC.JPG

Will depend largely on where it goes. In the more likely scenario, the system will remain inland, have no chance of development and will only be a rainmaker. There is also an unlikely but not impossible scenario where the disturbance is over water and develops slightly. Some of the 12z EPS ensembles have some weak development over the NW GOM FWIW.

[NDG]

It will be hard for anything to get much organized early next week with the forecasted stacked heat ridge from the mid levels to the upper levels across the eastern US that would mean strong upper level winds over the northern GOM.
IMO.

[Weather150]

12Z EC is much weaker with the northern Gulf disturbance next week. Just a bit of rain. No TS development. Closer to what the GFS is predicting. Rainy 4th of July for SE TX, perhaps. Here's a side-by-side comparison:

http://wxman57.com/images/EC.JPG

Will depend largely on where it goes. In the more likely scenario, the system will remain inland, have no chance of development and will only be a rainmaker. There is also an unlikely but not impossible scenario where the disturbance is over water and develops slightly. Some of the 12z EPS ensembles have some weak development over the NW GOM FWIW.

I doubt any sort of development. No serious type of development until August.

[Steve]

It will be hard for anything to get much organized early next week with the forecasted stacked heat ridge from the mid levels to the upper levels across the eastern US that would mean strong upper level winds over the northern GOM.
IMO.

I’d look to the central gulf or Florida below 27N or the Bahamas for any spin. Anything that eddied would probably just migrate west. But I think you always look under those ridges. On the other hand, even though we are pulsing through Phase 2 of the MJO, it’s late June and there really isn’t much amplification. Look for maybe a couple of areas of juicy convection around the Western basin the next week or so. But other than that, I’d be a little surprised if anything organized formed.

[NDG]

It will be hard for anything to get much organized early next week with the forecasted stacked heat ridge from the mid levels to the upper levels across the eastern US that would mean strong upper level winds over the northern GOM.
IMO.

I’d look to the central gulf or Florida below 27N or the Bahamas for any spin. Anything that eddied would probably just migrate west. But I think you always look under those ridges. On the other hand, even though we are pulsing through Phase 2 of the MJO, it’s late June and there really isn’t much amplification. Look for maybe a couple of areas of juicy convection around the Western basin the next week or so. But other than that, I’d be a little surprised if anything organized formed.

After this weekend the UL conditions become very hostile across the GOM and NW Atlantic next week due to the stacked heat ridge over the US.

[Steve]

It's late June. Conditions aren't going to be great in the Gulf most of the time. So I agree. And probably nothing organized gets going. But I wouldn't rule it out completely. You posted the GFS, and here's the European which does show instability in the NC Gulf and certainly a closed low at or near the surface before that (850mb run).

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2800&fh=24

[Steve]

12Z NAM builds low pressure in South Georgia maybe a combination of sources from on and offshore and moves it west across the Deep South. This is in the 3.5 day timeframe. 12Z ICON is similar.

[Stormcenter]

Graphics please.....thanks.

12Z NAM builds low pressure in South Georgia maybe a combination of sources from on and offshore and moves it west across the Deep South. This is in the 3.5 day timeframe. 12Z ICON is similar.

[ronjon]

12z GFS and mesoscale models NAM 3K and RGEM hinting at low pressure development in the NE GOM this weekend retrograding along the northern gulf cost toward TX by July 4th.

[SSL]

12z GFS and mesoscale models NAM 3K and RGEM hinting at low pressure development in the NE GOM this weekend retrograding along the northern gulf cost toward TX by July 4th.

12z Euro shows it forming as well during the 2nd of July and moves it west... Also has a large, I would assume non-tropical low moving towards the Georgia coastline from the east as well which I find interesting...

[gatorcane]

Euro showing something along Northern Gulf coast. Saved animation from 72 to 168 hours:

[Steve]

Graphics please.....thanks.

12Z NAM builds low pressure in South Georgia maybe a combination of sources from on and offshore and moves it west across the Deep South. This is in the 3.5 day timeframe. 12Z ICON is similar.

Sorry. I didn't sere your response until now. It was just the model runs. I was on my phone, so I could have only put in the links. But here they are. NAM is probably close to 18z now if it's not already out (if so, I'll post that link if it continues showing this possible evolution).

NAM 18Z 12km is only out to 60 hours. It's more defined and closer or possibly in the Gulf rather than over South Georgia on this run.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 62818&fh=0

ICON 12Z https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2812&fh=66

[Siker]

For comparison, here is Simulated Satellite from the 18z GFS for 00z tonight:



Here is the 12z Euro for the same time:



And here is actual satellite from 00:05Z:



Sim IR has never seemed particularly reliable, but verbatim the GFS is too far north with the complex entering the Gulf (it's the one it models to still be over Tennessee) while the Euro doesn't depict the complex over Iowa / Missouri. The Euro has consistently been a little further south (more over the Gulf) than the GFS with the low it forms from the remnants of these complexes.

[Steve]

Yeah. Looks like at least something retrograding across the gulf south. Possibly an eddy from the front. ICON looks like it’s depictimg a depression around Corpus. At worst, some instability for the coast. Ima try to get to Pcola this weekend and be back here on Tuesday. Maybe indications are that the low will be on or near the LA coast Monday and maybe into Texas later, maybe Wednesday? It’s the first surge in this pattern and possibly something else does come up toward the 7-10 period in the SE. CMC was first on it and euro had that Caribbean surge maybe interacting with a piece of the low moving off the NC coast. Let’s see what theCMC, ECMWF and JMA do a bit later. I have almost no confidence in the GFS at this point though it has occasionally been useful in certain time intervals this season. And Alberto.

[Steve]

First In is the CMC. Not much in the gulf but Lmao there is a 9-10 day second system hitting Daytona. Rare feat.

[GCANE]

GFS initializes a borderline cold core Saturday at 40N 60W
Spins off a low-level vort Monday.
Moves across FL Friday 7/6 and then west bound across northern GOM over the 7/7 weekend.

[Siker]

Made a thread for the disturbance over the Northeastern Gulf:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119661

[cycloneye]

Folks,sit back,relax and enjoy the show that EPAC will put on in the next couple of weeks. We will have things in Atlantic to track when the meat of season comes.

Nothing in the Atlantic to follow in the models so dont hesitate and follow Fabio for the next 3 days and see a great show.

[Blinhart]

Why hasn't anyone posted in here for so long? I thought it was stuck at the top of the forum???? Feel free to delete this moderators just couldn't find it.

[CyclonicFury]

Why hasn't anyone posted in here for so long?

Because we have Beryl and TD 3 in the Atlantic which the models never showed much.