2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[stormlover2013]

Lol yep and I will go with Euro and ukmet

[Haris]

[TheStormExpert]

Tropical Tidbits Levi Cowan says to ignore the GFS’s crazy hurricane solution. Euro seems more believable.

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1005854485661577221




 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1005854489390342145




 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1005854495392305158

[Aric Dunn]

Tropical Tidbits Levi Cowan says to ignore the GFS’s crazy hurricane solution. Euro seems more believable.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1005854485661577221[/teet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1005854489390342145[/twet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1005854495392305158[/twet]

I dont think anyone was looking at the GFS for intensity lol.

[Aric Dunn]

THe monsoon trough and vorticity/broad rotation are beginning to come together per the GFS/CMC again right on QUE.




yesterdays 12z CMC captured what is currently happening now pretty well..

[Aric Dunn]

hmmm why did that first GIF stop looping in the previous post ? weird

[stormreader]

THe monsoon trough and vorticity/broad rotation are beginning to come together per the GFS/CMC again right on QUE.

https://image.ibb.co/naTKDT/regrdgvdrtbdtbftyxyb.gif


yesterdays 12z CMC captured what is currently happening now pretty well..

https://image.ibb.co/mna208/gem_z850_vo ... fh0_72.gif

Yep. That chart reflects very short range (next 48 hours). I've been looking down there too, (last couple of days) for signs of a general northward movement or storms building further north of the Costa Rica area in the SW Caribbean. With then storms building off Nicaragua and Honduras. Some waiting on an oncoming tropical wave to help add energy. Don't know about that. But been looking in SW Caribbean for something my eyes can actually see (not just in cyberspace).

[Aric Dunn]

is the First GIF looping for you ?

[TheProfessor]

It is for me.

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: It is for me.

ok thanks. for some reason the TPW loop stopped working on my screen .. lol

[wxman22]

The 18z GFS looks more realistic with the strength of the system.

[Aric Dunn]

The 18z GFS looks more realistic with the strength of the system.

[img]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018061018/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_30.png[/ig]

yeah it spends a lot more time over land. which is likely the case given the set up./

[Haris]

LOTTA rain coming TEXANS!

BENEFICIAL RAIN. 18z gfs really became weaker.

More inland track in CA. Like Euro

[NDG]

Convection and vorticiy have really increased during the day today.
Saved vis loop:

[cycloneye]

We have a thread open for the area of interest in SW Caribbean so model runs can be posted there.

Watching SW Caribbean Thread

[TheStormExpert]

I’d be more interested in what may or not develop at the tail end of the front expected to sweep into north Florida this weekend over Invest 91L.

The 12z Euro Ensembles were hinting at the potential at development of some sort and what do you know, the 00z Euro develops what looks like a TD or very weak mini-TS off the Palm Beach/Martin County border on Monday. 00z Euro Ensembles are even more bullish.

[Clearcloudz]

EURO Model coming out with a homegrown tropical System off the east coast of Florida. Needs to be watched as potential is there for something to form quickly since it is inside the 5 day window on the EURO.

[ronjon]

00z CMC has the same vort max a little further north but buries it into the oeninsula rather than move it offshore of S FL.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=watl&pkg=uv850_vort&runtime=2018061300&fh=96

[ronjon]

Curiously the vort max originates over south-central Georgia in both the CMC and Euro models.

[Clearcloudz]

Over night UL energy from Invest 91L was sheared northeast over Cuba into Florida increasing chances for homegrown development off the Florida east coast as the frontal system drops.