2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#361 Postby Alyono » Thu May 17, 2018 11:26 am

Canadian now favors a real TC on the EPAC side, leaving just a sheared mess in the Gulf
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#362 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 17, 2018 11:41 am

Not so fast says Levi Cowan.

@TropicalTidbits
Just a reminder that the GFS has remarkable problems in large-scale cyclonic, convective environments. For example, the speed of northward propagation and amplification of the W. Carib low on the 12Z run is mostly a product of errant convection. These are the vorticity paintbombs


 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/997152308495552512


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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#363 Postby chris_fit » Thu May 17, 2018 11:42 am

12Z GFS pretty much takes it up the spine of FL

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#364 Postby Exalt » Thu May 17, 2018 12:00 pm

chris_fit wrote:12Z GFS pretty much takes it up the spine of FL

Image


What I especially don't like is the fact that it looks like it's going to loop back into the Gulf for more trouble..
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#365 Postby chris_fit » Thu May 17, 2018 12:15 pm

Exalt wrote:What I especially don't like is the fact that it looks like it's going to loop back into the Gulf for more trouble..


Naaa - goes right up north
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#366 Postby Exalt » Thu May 17, 2018 12:16 pm

chris_fit wrote:
Exalt wrote:What I especially don't like is the fact that it looks like it's going to loop back into the Gulf for more trouble..


Naaa - goes right up north


Huh weird cause in the last frame the center is over the Gulf
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#367 Postby gatorcane » Thu May 17, 2018 12:32 pm

12Z GFS ensembles show good concentration around big bend area of Florida / NE Gulf and are mostly west of where the GFS operational has the system. What is it about the Big Bend of Florida? Seems early season cyclones love heading that way. That said, being a sheared system, heavy rainfall would extend well east of the center.

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Last edited by gatorcane on Thu May 17, 2018 12:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#368 Postby txwatcher91 » Thu May 17, 2018 12:33 pm

wxman57 wrote:
MGC wrote:
weathaguyry wrote:The FV3-GFS is the new comedy section of tropical tidbits :lol:


It is.....06Z run has a 933mb cane on Louisiana coast on May 31st.....MGC


And it sits on the SE Louisiana coast for 2 days as a major hurricane, putting New Orleans underwater. This "upgraded" GFS is going to be interesting...


My fear is once we get an actual tropical storm to form, these FV3 GFS runs are going to be plastered all over social media for click bait and cause a lot of people to panic. The "new GFS" last year was bad enough, this FV3 "upgraded" version will be even worse.

FWIW the 12z ICON has a decent storm passing through the Yucatan channel.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#369 Postby gatorcane » Thu May 17, 2018 12:41 pm

Time to open a new thread on the Western Caribbean system? Floater currently on NW Caribbean is being moved down to the SW Caribbean blob:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#370 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 17, 2018 12:48 pm

We have a new thread for the SW Caribbean area so go there to post the models runs.Thanks for your cooperation.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119567&p=2674617#p2674617
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#371 Postby NDG » Thu May 17, 2018 12:52 pm

Alyono wrote:Canadian now favors a real TC on the EPAC side, leaving just a sheared mess in the Gulf


The CMC has been forecasting a phantom storm on the EPAC side for days now.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#372 Postby Alyono » Thu May 17, 2018 1:45 pm

the new FV GFS buries it over Central America

Maybe its time NCEP and you know who starts listening to the research community when it comes to model development. This is the second time they went against the suggestions of the research community when choosing the new NCEP global model
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#373 Postby wxman57 » Thu May 17, 2018 3:16 pm

Alyono wrote:Canadian now favors a real TC on the EPAC side, leaving just a sheared mess in the Gulf


That might be more realistic.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#374 Postby PSUHiker31 » Sat May 19, 2018 1:30 am

I'm entertained by how the FV3 is continually developing a micro TC in the far NE Gulf and is actually moving up the development with each run... About 42 hours or less away.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#375 Postby northjaxpro » Sat May 19, 2018 3:18 am

:uarrow: The 0Z CMC run also shows that feature PSU Hiker developing off Tampa Bay 12Z tomorrow morning, and then moving northwest into the Panhandle region.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#376 Postby AJC3 » Sun May 20, 2018 3:47 pm

LarryWx wrote:The 12Z FV3 develops a very tiny 996 mb TS 75 miles offshore in the Apalachee Bay 5/21. That looks like still another phantom. The SSTs up there are not even warm enough for tropical development! I have a feeling this is going to be a looooong season of phantoms. :(


PSUHiker31 wrote:I'm entertained by how the FV3 is continually developing a micro TC in the far NE Gulf and is actually moving up the development with each run... About 42 hours or less away.


There's a pretty apparent (albeit weak) low level vort center just offshore Cedar Key moving northwest toward Apalachicola. So while the model guidance was overdone, it correctly sniffed "something" small out, reasonably close to the correct time frame, a good 5 days in advance. That's pretty impressive to me.

As a fellow met said to me a couple decades ago, "Sometimes it's not about exactly what the model is saying, but what it's trying to say instead".
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#377 Postby LarryWx » Mon May 21, 2018 11:51 am

AJC3 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:The 12Z FV3 develops a very tiny 996 mb TS 75 miles offshore in the Apalachee Bay 5/21. That looks like still another phantom. The SSTs up there are not even warm enough for tropical development! I have a feeling this is going to be a looooong season of phantoms. :(


PSUHiker31 wrote:I'm entertained by how the FV3 is continually developing a micro TC in the far NE Gulf and is actually moving up the development with each run... About 42 hours or less away.


There's a pretty apparent (albeit weak) low level vort center just offshore Cedar Key moving northwest toward Apalachicola. So while the model guidance was overdone, it correctly sniffed "something" small out, reasonably close to the correct time frame, a good 5 days in advance. That's pretty impressive to me.

As a fellow met said to me a couple decades ago, "Sometimes it's not about exactly what the model is saying, but what it's trying to say instead".


I think I see the very weak vortex on radar. Maybe this means the FV3 will be similar to the CMC, which would mean sometimes sniffing out something that other models don't sniff out due to being "genesis happy" but also showing numerous fake geneses as well as correct geneses that are often strengthened too much.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#378 Postby Alyono » Wed May 23, 2018 6:00 pm

GFS keeps the monsoon trough over the Caribbean and cranks out another system around day 10
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#379 Postby gatorcane » Wed May 23, 2018 7:56 pm

Alyono wrote:GFS keeps the monsoon trough over the Caribbean and cranks out another system around day 10


Yep here it is:

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#380 Postby MetroMike » Wed May 23, 2018 8:29 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Alyono wrote:GFS keeps the monsoon trough over the Caribbean and cranks out another system around day 10


Yep here it is:

Image



It meanders it around Central Gulf before slamming the West Central Fl area.
Fantasy range but gives one the idea of the setup taking place then.
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