2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[wxGuy]

[gatorcane]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018082112/gfs_mslp_uv850_atl_53.png

So obviously take it with a grain of salt but steering as shown by the 16-day GFS, looks ominous with a huge area of high pressure over Southern Canada and northern US with ridging over the subtropical Western Atlantic:

[Ivanhater]

Models coming alive

[Sambucol]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018082112/gfs_mslp_uv850_atl_53.png

So obviously take it with a grain of salt but steering as shown by the 16-day GFS, looks ominous with a huge area of high pressure over Southern Canada and northern US with ridging over the subtropical Western Atlantic:

Where would that cause a hurricane to steer? More to the west?

[stormlover2013]

oh yeah, prob GOM

[Sambucol]

oh yeah, prob GOM

Thank you. I’m on the upper Texas coast.

[stormlover2013]

same here but long range models u can't trust them

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF with a strong area of low pressure near the Cabo Verde islands at 240 hours:

[Hurricane Mike]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018082112/gfs_mslp_uv850_atl_53.png

So obviously take it with a grain of salt but steering as shown by the 16-day GFS, looks ominous with a huge area of high pressure over Southern Canada and northern US with ridging over the subtropical Western Atlantic:

Wow talk about a Miami to Corpus-type track setup should anything occur.

[Hammy]

CFS has a similar setup, developing one system on the 29th and a second on Sep 1-2, and turns the first one north through a weakness in the ridge, and sends the second into the Bahamas by the 10th (before turning out to sea on this run)

[LarryWx]

12Z ECMWF with a strong area of low pressure near the Cabo Verde islands at 240 hours:

Consistent with the 12Z Euro operational, about 20% of the 50 EPS (~10) members have a TC form in the far E MDR ~Sept. 1 moving W to WNW. 4 of those 10 geneses go down to sub 990 mb (i.e., likely hurricanes). By day 15 (9/5), the TCs are mainly between 40W and 50W with some safely recurving N of 20N while others are still between 15N and 20N moving mainly WNW. None of these were on the 0Z EPS.

[SFLcane]

Here we go..

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1032000078414839808

[galaxy401]

Are models still showing that nontropical storm heading to the Bahamas or did they drop that?

[AutoPenalti]

CFS showing a flat ridge but seems to show recurves at day 16. Maybe set up is changing?

[Hammy]

GFS backing off MDR activity through 264 hours (albeit a tad stronger with the wave in the western MDR) but now has a system in the Gulf.

[gatorcane]

Something in the GOM on 18Z GFS in long-range:

[gatorcane]

In the GFS super-long range looks busy:

[wxGuy]

GFS showing 05' like path similar to Katrina, Rita watch the looop

[wxGuy]

either way tropics are waking up and so are the models

[Steve]

Cape Verde season usually starts up around now. The 18z GFS shows 2 lows from origins in that source region. It wouldn’t be a burst per se, but if it was to be right and follow an Eastpac system with a NW Gulf landfall, the 3rd system would likely be east of there. Run goes out to the end of the first week in September which is within a few days of the peak.