2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
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- toad strangler
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)
18z GFS says LOL NO
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)
Of course, just 18 hours ago the GFS didn't know 91L even existed LOL. Now however, it has a borderline T.S. about to from out of it. I don't think i'd put a world of stock in the GFS. It's been off and on. For what it's worth, the GFS DOES show a W. Caribbean deep 850 mb signature in the longer range; It just doesn't do well depicting where exactly genesis may occur. On another note, the 0Z EURO is more bullish with a second system developing in the W. Caribbean starting at about 192 hrs
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
So much for that Caribbean system euro has all but dropped it just shows a weak low heading into CA.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Weaker yes but into Central America no looking at that setup with the trough digging:
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
SFLcane wrote:So much for that Caribbean system euro has all but dropped it just shows a weak low heading into CA.
What are you talking about? It still has it on the 00z run although weaker, but it looks to be gradually getting better organized by day 10.
There is still some EPS support at 00z, although weaker.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
gatorcane wrote:Weaker yes but into Central America no looking at that setup with the trough digging:
https://i.postimg.cc/fyGfrtvz/ecmwf_z500a_Norm_watl_11.png
This. A trough like that can easily scoop it up and fling him or her to the N and NE. That said, it’s 240 hours but that set up is screaming climo.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Indeed climo track there but this year the Caribbean has been dominated by wind shear from developing El Niño. I don’t put to much stock even in the long range euro.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
JB talking about 10/15 to 10/20 for possible 2nd system
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
12z Canadian has a weak TS maybe in the NW Caribbean at 240hrs so mabye the Euro isnt so crazy afterall? What do u guys think?
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
WeatherEmperor wrote:12z Canadian has a weak TS maybe in the NW Caribbean at 240hrs so mabye the Euro isnt so crazy afterall? What do u guys think?
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181006/7d4a52f92dc9b549115e2a7cc3312bcc.png
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Looks like a moderate-strong T.S. just looking at the 850mb vorticity. Even the 12z GFS was just a little more enthusiastic showing a weak low hanging around Cuba beyond days 6-7.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Caribbean storm #2 on the EPS:
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Re: RE: Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
October is prime time for florida, two hits in october isn't a crazy scenariogatorcane wrote:Caribbean storm #2 on the EPS:
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The EPS continue be very bullish in the long range on system #2.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Looks like GFS starting to bite. Does do much with it but starting to show the vortcity.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
This has no place to go but into CA on the 00z Euro
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Still 8-10 days out so a lot will change, though hopefully it changes for the better and not worse.
Could be looking at tracks similar to Matthew and Richard of 2010 per the latest 00z Euro.
Could be looking at tracks similar to Matthew and Richard of 2010 per the latest 00z Euro.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
toad strangler wrote:This has no place to go but into CA on the 00z Euro
Yep just not overly concerned about this 00z models drive this into CA.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
CMC towards Florida:
00Z EPS with a break in the ridge just like the CMC which would pull a deeper system north:
00Z EPS with a break in the ridge just like the CMC which would pull a deeper system north:
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
IF something developes that break in the ridge would be a problem.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
[quote="gatorcane"]CMC towards Florida:
00Z EPS with a break in the ridge just like the CMC which would pull a deeper system north:
Gatorcane, I see the date on your graphic is 10/17. When would new development begin in the Caribbean?
00Z EPS with a break in the ridge just like the CMC which would pull a deeper system north:
Gatorcane, I see the date on your graphic is 10/17. When would new development begin in the Caribbean?
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