2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Blinhart]

Why hasn't anyone posted in here for so long?

Because we have Beryl and TD 3 in the Atlantic which the models never showed much.

Yeah but I remember when it didn't matter what, people would be posting pics of what the models show in 30 days. Just doesn't seem right.

[Kingarabian]

Why hasn't anyone posted in here for so long?

Because we have Beryl and TD 3 in the Atlantic which the models never showed much.

Yeah but I remember when it didn't matter what, people would be posting pics of what the models show in 30 days. Just doesn't seem right.

Hi Blinhart. The reason why this thread is not that active at the moment is because beyond Beryl and TD3, the models are not showing much. This thread is the most active when there's a system that models are picking up on in the mediam-long range and there's no disturbance or mention by the NHC yet. If there is a disturbance or a mention by the NHC, then they usually have their own separate threads to avoid confusion.

[AJC3]

Why hasn't anyone posted in here for so long? I thought it was stuck at the top of the forum???? Feel free to delete this moderators just couldn't find it.

Well, then, let me start something off here...

For the past couple days both the GFS and ECM have shown a large, robust tropical wave coming off Africa on Tuesday. The feature remains broad and weakly closed (at least in the SLP field), with a rather large vort envelope in the far eastern MDR through late Thursday, until it dampens out between 35-40W.

Voila! Something new to talk about in this thread.

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan has a new tool for HWRF.

@TropicalTidbits
Brand new version of HWRF was implemented today. 1.5 km inner nest. Here's the 12Z run rolling in now for #Chris:

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1016368735748349952

[AJC3]

Well, then, let me start something off here...

For the past couple days both the GFS and ECM have shown a large, robust tropical wave coming off Africa on Tuesday. The feature remains broad and weakly closed (at least in the SLP field), with a rather large vort envelope in the far eastern MDR through late Thursday, until it dampens out between 35-40W.

Voila! Something new to talk about in this thread.

The emergence of this wave from the west coast of Africa will be coincident with another large Saharan dust outbreak. I strongly suspect this will be little more that a large, dusty gyre that will be mostly convectionless save for whatever attachment it may have with the ITCZ along its southern flank. No surprise here...

[Blinhart]

Well, then, let me start something off here...

For the past couple days both the GFS and ECM have shown a large, robust tropical wave coming off Africa on Tuesday. The feature remains broad and weakly closed (at least in the SLP field), with a rather large vort envelope in the far eastern MDR through late Thursday, until it dampens out between 35-40W.

Voila! Something new to talk about in this thread.

The emergence of this wave from the west coast of Africa will be coincident with another large Saharan dust outbreak. I strongly suspect this will be little more that a large, dusty gyre that will be mostly convectionless save for whatever attachment it may have with the ITCZ along its southern flank. No surprise here...

So there is not model support for the system that is over the center of Africa in that satellite pic.

[chaser1]

No, not much model support...... but i'm not so sure that means all too much. Minimal model support for Beryl either. Past couple of years we've seen a degradation of model accuracy. I think if one wants to attempt to
use the various global models to some level of foresight, then I'd suggest looking at the 850mb level to at least see the models present those dynamic waves as they come off the African coastline. Take this link for instance, https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1012&fh=48 . The EURO clearly showing how pronounced this broad 850mb low is after about 48 hours. Sure, thereafter the EURO starts to open the wave up and weaken it. Check this out at 96 hr.s, an even more impressive new wave emerging off the African coast - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1012&fh=96

The whole point being, the moment that one of these waves gains a bit of traction all of a sudden the models will miraculously start carrying that COC further into their longer range. Doesn't mean that nothing will form until the EURO or GFS decide to tell us. Those were the good 'ol days before the models were neutered LOL

[AtlanticWind]

Seems like we went from the old days that models developed everything, to the present when they develop almost nothing.

[Alyono]

Seems like we went from the old days that models developed everything, to the present when they develop almost nothing.

been worse. Models have developed phantoms while, except for Alberto, have failed to indicate development of actual TCs

However, I will say this, the ensembles did correctly pick up on Beryl. Ensembles had a 70% chance of development. Ensembles are the future. Human forecasts will go the way of DC electric current

[GCANE]

A lot of LL Vort and some convection with this CV Wave.

[GCANE]

06Z GFS has it as a surface low thru Sunday
Pretty much keeps the convection going thru mid Carib

[GCANE]

IMHO, models still suck for genesis and intensity forecasting.
However, they did exceptionally well with Beryl track.

[Aric Dunn]

Look out for a possible small sheared quick spin up off the SE coast the next 2 days.

convection and rotation is already there. some weak model support. could come near the coast of SC>

[northjaxpro]

WPC Surface Analysis at 16Z shows that weak surface reflection at 1018 mb off the SC coast.Good amount of north-northeasterly wind shear over the system currently though.

Worth watching for sure.

[TheStormExpert]

It’s beyond 300hrs. and will likely be dropped at some point but I find it interesting that the GFS (recent 00z and 06z runs) tries to develop a wave currently over Nigeria in the Eastern GoM near the west coast of Florida.

[Siker]

As was referenced in that thread that's now locked, potential for a potential coastal hugger in the NE Gulf / off the SE coast late this week. Modest EPS support for this:

[AnnularCane]

I've been hearing talk on the local weather about something coming up from the Gulf and making us rainy by the weekend. I guess this must be it? This is the first time I've heard anything about it outside the local weather.

[Siker]

I've been hearing talk on the local weather about something coming up from the Gulf and making us rainy by the weekend. I guess this must be it? This is the first time I've heard anything about it outside the local weather.

That would be this yes. It's left behind by a trough that passes through on Wednesday, then gets dragged over the coastal Southeast and eventually the Northeast by another trough over the weekend. Just a non-tropical low on the operational Euro, but transition to a tropical system would be possible if it stays far enough away from land.

[wxman57]

Looks like a big dust storm moving off the west coast of Africa on Wednesday. Generally, there is surface convergence west of and south of such SAL outbreaks. Tiny Beryl formed in that region along the leading edge of a SAL outbreak. In this case, it will more likely be a big dust vortex.

[tolakram]

As was referenced in that thread that's now locked, potential for a potential coastal hugger in the NE Gulf / off the SE coast late this week. Modest EPS support for this:

Yep...was my post....i did not break the rules...as there was some model support...but whatever

You don't need model support, you need a system or area of disturbed weather. 'No model storm threads are allowed' is the rule we stick too. You can make a thread about a disturbed area of weather with or without model support, but no thread about a modeled storm until the area of disturbed weather the models are supporting exists. Until then this is the place for model discussions.