Shell Mound wrote:If the current Gulf low were to somehow become Alberto (as seems increasingly possible) and Beryl were to follow in its wake, the back-to-back pre-season storms would very likely presage an inactive peak season. While pre-season activity in itself does not necessarily imply a dead heart of the season, El Niño years are almost always associated with an anomalously active pre-season/early season and a correspondingly dead peak season. La Niña is often the opposite: a slow start followed by a hyperactive peak season, with activity continuing well into late season (and sometimes beyond, even after New Year's Eve). So I think that the increasing prospects of both multiple pre-season storms and the increasing likelihood of El Niño by peak season go together nicely. Thus the odds of a very inactive season, with activity weighted toward pre-season/early season rather than peak/late season, are going way up at this time. So the model trends and sensible weather/climate trends both tend to support this outcome. Additionally, the fact that Alberto may very well turn out to be a subtropical system in the Gulf could indicate unfavourable conditions for classic tropical storm structures even in the subtropics, which would imply a season that is even more hostile than I may have thought. I could be wrong, but data are data. Hmm...
El Nino?? It's becoming increasingly likely that it'll be weak and late. Also, that last point doesn't presage an even more inactive season - all it is is May climo. I think you're getting to into this.
