2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[gatorcane]

Dropped by the 12Z CMC, GFS and UKMET have nada...

[USTropics]

Buyer's beware of the ECMWF EC forecasted system. It seems to have a bias towards developing vigorous LLC's off frontal zones that swoop down into the SE CONUS. This is now the third time in the past month that the ECMWF master run and some of the ensembles have shown tropical cyclone genesis, and so far it's 0/2 (see this chart I posted a week ago that forecasted genesis on 6/9 for the most recent example: https://i.imgur.com/62vFiFR.png)

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, this has been a major problem with the EURO. I agree with you USTropics. The EURO has also had its issues with long range genesis past 7 days in other instances recently as well.

[USTropics]

WPC does daily 00z and 12z model diagnostic discussions; they can be quite revealing about model biases (http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... ssions.php). They've essentially discredited the ECMWF and its ensemble suite in a discussion from 2 days ago:

The 00Z ECMWF had the most ensemble support with respect to
details of the mid level height fields and at the surface.
The 12Z run was nearly identical except for a somewhat spurious
looking weakness in the height field and associated vorticity
maximum that develops over the southeast states / Florida on Days
2/3. There is no identifiable grid-scale feedback here, but the
overall ensemble support is toward something more like the 12Z GFS
and GEFS Mean in that region.

[TheStormExpert]

I guarantee that the 12z Euro will drop it, just my thoughts.

[NDG]

Like I have mentioned before I have noticed that the Euro loves forecasting phantom storms to develop off of mid latitude troughs & frontal boundaries that never come to fruition.

[LarryWx]

I guarantee that the 12z Euro will drop it, just my thoughts.

Winner, winner, chicken dinner! The 12Z Euro has nothing even resembling the 0Z Euro's phantom.

[Weather150]

12z Euro has the vort hanging around Alabama longer this run, I doubt it shows any sort of development this run.

[NotSparta]

euro shows tiny llc in CATL in 48 hours, but very sheared and unlikely to be much.

[wxman57]

Euro has 2-4" across much of Harris County (Houston) between Sunday afternoon and late Monday morning. Higher totals (5-7") across western Chambers and SW Liberty County.

Update, EC has 8-12" east of Houston through Liberty County and north of there, mostly from Monday morning to Tuesday morning. Still only 2-4" across Houston. Of course, much will depend on where any band of squalls sets up. That heavier rain could be just about anywhere from the mid TX coast to SW Louisiana.

[floridasun78]

forcast here see chance of Saharan Dust coming over south fl that will kill any chance seen 92l off Florida Dust now east of Bahamas will like be over Florida by weekend

[Dean4Storms]

Nice Vortmax dropping through southern Alabama this morning moving South. Guess this was the feature that the ECM was moving off FL Coast eventually.

[Eric Webb]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1007661460691079174

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the 00z ECMWF showed a borderline hurricane in the BoC by 168 hours. Basically stationary for 4 days straight.

[TheStormExpert]

Probably because it's long-range and the only model to show this making it very suspicious.

[Siker]

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the 00z ECMWF showed a borderline hurricane in the BoC by 168 hours. Basically stationary for 4 days straight.

Been commenting on it in the current disturbance thread because of its muddled origins. Probably better to discuss it here because it is distinct from the blob we’re following now.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

:uarrow: Probably because it's long-range and the only model to show this making it very suspicious.

I thought the Euro was king?

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: Probably because it's long-range and the only model to show this making it very suspicious.

I thought the Euro was king?

Even it has been showing phantom storms recently.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the 00z ECMWF showed a borderline hurricane in the BoC by 168 hours. Basically stationary for 4 days straight.

Been commenting on it in the current disturbance thread because of its muddled origins. Probably better to discuss it here because it is distinct from the blob we’re following now.

Yea, there's really zero commonality with the current system; this one appears to pop off the Mexican coastline.

[Nederlander]

:uarrow: Probably because it's long-range and the only model to show this making it very suspicious.

I thought the Euro was king?

Even it has been showing phantom storms recently.

Yeah, GFS has been outperforming as of late. For as much negativity it gets for being to bullish, it pegged Alberto and the current system we are monitoring.