2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
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- gatorcane
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
12Z EC with lowering pressure in the Bahamas at 192 hours. Goes on to deepen the low some and sends it north to off the Northeastern US coastline:
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
18z FV3-GFS still develops the system, and the timeframe is moving up:
A mention from the NHC may be in order if it persists on the models for a couple more days.
A mention from the NHC may be in order if it persists on the models for a couple more days.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Models basically are showing ultimately multiple areas of vorticity spinning around one big broad area of low pressure. Nothing organized.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
12z old GFS has it more stronger just north of Bahamas for day 6.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
oh we could get a trop storm/dep out of this......by what models or showing
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
we getting may i do see bit early for tropical system maybe substropical
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
An e-mail from "Hurricane Network"
The Hurricane Network is monitoring the possibility of our first tropical or subtropical cyclone forming south of the Bahamas later this week. The Hurricane Network has issued a Special Tropical Cyclone Outlook outlining this area of interest, giving it a low 20% chance in the next five days for tropical development. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will overspread northern Caribbean.
The Hurricane Network is monitoring the possibility of our first tropical or subtropical cyclone forming south of the Bahamas later this week. The Hurricane Network has issued a Special Tropical Cyclone Outlook outlining this area of interest, giving it a low 20% chance in the next five days for tropical development. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will overspread northern Caribbean.
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- wxman57
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
I was conversing with a friend at the NHC about this feature earlier this morning. Word is that the hurricane specialists are not concerned about it. No special tropical weather outlook is being prepared at this time. I think a brief low center may form, only to be quickly sheared apart. I think I can detect a very weak feature east of the Caribbean along 50W that may be the source.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
I would start watching the Western Caribbean for potential tropical development after mid-May. Already the GFS has been hinting on and off of this potential, the new-GFS had been even more bullish on this.
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- gatorcane
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
12Z GFS long-range but we know the drill:
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Ok I'll start the annual GFS phantom storm discussion for the western caribbean - now two runs in a row, lol.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018050712&fh=360
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018050712&fh=360
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
^ EPAC system, sniffing out the first one. Same thing every year.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
all this tells me though is hurricane season is on its way
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Gfs 18z at it again lol https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Lul
Oh divine GFS, please lend us your infinite wisdom
Oh divine GFS, please lend us your infinite wisdom
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
What’s bad we will be model watching now lol
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Is that a hurricane in May? Kek GFS
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
It's not even June and the GFS is already up to its usual tomfoolery.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Maybe not so laughable JB says.
@BigJoeBastardi
2cnd run in a row GFS day 16 storm. Now its in the Caribbean, MJO heading into favorable phases for mischief after May 15, so perhaps not so laughable
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/993639591495327746
@BigJoeBastardi
2cnd run in a row GFS day 16 storm. Now its in the Caribbean, MJO heading into favorable phases for mischief after May 15, so perhaps not so laughable
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/993639591495327746
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
BYG Jacob wrote:Is that a hurricane in May? Kek GFS
Well, if this were to actually verify........ um yeah. Kind of borderline pressure for a minimal hurricane but not unreasonable. The pressures all around are fairly high so given the difference in relative pressure and gradient, I'd guess that 987mb in the N.W. Caribbean would support 65-70 knots.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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