2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[toad strangler]

Not much to see here GFS all over the place in regards to development. Still not bringing the time in...it's another phantom most likely

So the FV3- GFS brings a strong hurricane right to the doorstep of S FL in super la la land long range
The reg GFS brings a weaker storm to roughly the same spot.

Obviously none of this means much at this range but just like yesterday the FV-3 GFS brings the Lemon that's way out E to that spot and the reg GFS brings it up from the deep S Caribbean.

Also,, agree on the timing. It's not moving up. Strong symptom of a ghost.

[boca]

The GFS has been showing this at 384 hours for 3 days now. Until the other models pick up on this it will qualify as a phantom issue until more model support.

[blp]

I think we need a couple more runs. If you look at the graphic Ben Noll posted on Monday and the GFS graphic below its clear the activity will coincide with the MJO push and begin in the EPAC at the end of September and then migrate to the W. Carribean after Oct 1st and then continue to spread to E. Carribean by Oct 4th. The models are playing this out now but are having difficulty grasping which area will coalesce. I don't think this is a phantom because of the Euro signal which is on par with the GFS but we just don't see it yet on the OPS run because it is stuck with the 10day forecast showing the EPAC. Normally when I see a phantom on the GFS I typically don't see the Euro agreeing this well on the MJO forecast.



 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1041827092025958400

[chaser1]

"Transporter Room, this is Kirk...... beam me down to the surface somewhere in the middle N. Atlantic in approx. 216 hours"

[HurricaneEric]

I’d caution considering this a phantom storm. Although the GFS obviously has its issues with timing, I think the overall consensus in the models that conditions should be favorable for cyclone genesis (in this part of the basin) in late-September/early-October is more important. I’ll be shocked if nothing forms down there from Sept. 24 - Oct. 15.




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[toad strangler]

Looks like 12z GFS moonbat long range is now buying into the FV3 TEST solution with a E based system making all the way into the E Caribbean and beyond.

[SFLcane]

So now the GFS appears to be love with the disturbance east of the Caribbean islands. No way it impacts the southeast this late without feeling a tug and recurving. It appears to have dropped the phantom storm in the western part of the basin. Nhc did mention upper level conditions are quite hostile so not much to be overly concerned at this time

[boca]

I agree the Western Caribbean was a phantom and the east based storm should recurve as well because the westerlies are heading south and the troughs are stronger.

[AutoPenalti]

I don’t know... GFS has been pretty consistent so far about something forming within 10 days. It’s not like it’s been dropping it run after run...

[wxman57]

I'd say that the GFS has been consistently inconsistent as far as the area of origin and track of a storm in the 14-16 day time frame.
The 12Z run develops it from a tropical wave that will move off the coast of Africa in 3-4 days. Previous runs tried to bring something north out of the Pacific into the western Caribbean. I don't think that the folks in the Carolinas would appreciate its latest offering - strong hurricane north of the Bahamas blocked by high pressure to the north.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018091912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_seus_52.png

[Emmett_Brown]

The 6Z FV3 has the same storm, with an African wave that attempts to close off around 96 hours, and tracks WNW all the way to S FL by the fantasy land 300+ range.

Edited to correct the time to 6Z instead of 12Z

[toad strangler]

The 12Z FV3 has the same storm, with an African wave that attempts to close off around 96 hours, and tracks WNW all the way to S FL by the fantasy land 300+ range.

Wasn't that the 6z?

[SFLcane]

Indeed it is the 06z run the 12z FV3 is still stuck at 102 hrs

[Emmett_Brown]

The 12Z FV3 has the same storm, with an African wave that attempts to close off around 96 hours, and tracks WNW all the way to S FL by the fantasy land 300+ range.

Wasn't that the 6z?

Yep, my mistake, I'll edit the post, thanks!

[SFLcane]

Lol...what hurricane 12z FV3 it poofs thankfully near the islands. Conditions are hostile just as the NHC mentions. It would be great if the season was indeed coming to a close atleast that's the hope.

[TheStormExpert]

Well the 12z Euro sends the way wave into the Central Caribbean near Jamaica in 10 days with no development. Unless this goes north of the Caribbean development seems unlikely.

[storm4u]

0z ICON has a tropical storm heading north just east of NC at hr180. Think part of it is the remants of Florence!!!

[storm4u]

0z Canadian looks almost the same

[LarryWx]

The happy Hour GEFS backed off significantly from prior GEFS runs regarding the chances for ~10/1 W. Caribbean genesis. Regardless, even way out on 10/1 is still only near the start of the mot active 3 weeks of the season there genesis-wise.

[EquusStorm]

I like how the ECMWF forecast at 240h calls for fidget spinner