2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[TheStormExpert]

18z FV-3 GFS has a strengthening 982mb hurricane heading north just east of Jamaica @ 384hrs.

[TheStormExpert]

Its trying to pull a Wilma on the GFS if you account for truncation. If something that strong happens the Western Caribbean is the place to do it unfortunately

Classic Western Caribbean October monster on simulated IR...thankfully 384 hours out:

But it could be a large storm if it develops, the model expands it as it pulls out of the NW Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/bvkTL36d/gfs_ir_watl_53.png

How do you get that superimposed pic from the GFS model?

On the Tropical Tidbits model page go to the GFS model and under the Upper Dynamics section click Simulated IR Satellite.

[SoupBone]

What general path do the models show the storms taking? Towards Gulf, TX or FL?

Of course this is way too far out to have even the slightest bit of certainty, but generally speaking, the beginning of October, Texas starts getting cool fronts, slowly closing the door to Texas threats. It does and has happened though, but as we creep closer to October, a Texas threat decreases. Factually, Texas has historically only had two hurricanes between 1900 and 2000 in October.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like no development on the 00Z but the EPAC now has a major.

EDIT: Actually timing for development has been pushed back, now has a strengthening TS heading NW towards the Cayman Islands and Cuba.

[AutoPenalti]

Growing consensus on something forming in the W. Caribbean moving North.

[LarryWx]

Though not as active as the very active Happy Hour GEFS (no surprise), the 0Z GEFS still has a decent # of TS+s

[AutoPenalti]

GFS 06z now has something crossing over from the EPAC and intensifying moving N towards the Florida Keys.

[SFLcane]

06z gfs has a sheared mess over SFL this might be the outcome when it’s all said and done. That’s the hope at least we will take a rainy few days

[toad strangler]

06z gfs has a sheared mess over SFL this might be the outcome when it’s all said and done. That’s the hope at least we will take a rainy few days

Way too early. But nothing wrong with a little hope lol.

[TheStormExpert]

06z gfs has a sheared mess over SFL this might be the outcome when it’s all said and done. That’s the hope at least we will take a rainy few days

Yeah I can’t help but think we will either see a repeat performance of Hurricane Nate or short-lived TS Philippe from last October.

[toad strangler]

6z GEFS Ensembles signaling low pressure beginning at 294 hours

[SFLcane]

Could very easily end up in the eastern pacific... i understand the pattern is favorable but i'am just not a big fan of 200+hr models especially the bias the gfs has with the caribbean at this time of the year. We shall see

[HeeBGBz]

Would this be the K storm? It's been woefully hot on the northern gulf coast. Heat index stays at about 106. Could use some rain in Biloxi just to cool down.

[gatorcane]

FV3 GFS with a hurricane into the Southern Lesser Antilles:

[toad strangler]

Just for laughs really, the 6z GFS has a cyclone in the same spot as the 6z FV3-GFS at 384 hours off the SE US coast BUT from completely different origins LOL
GFS brings up a system from the SW Caribbean and the FV-3 brings in a African system from the E

[SouthFLTropics]

That 06z FV3 is eerily reminiscent of Matthew. I think it's becoming very clear that the Caribbean is going to have to be closely monitored beginning midweek next week.

[Emmett_Brown]

Climatologically it would make sense for at least 1-2 more Cape Verde storms to form before it all shuts down. So the FV3 seems reasonable.

[CyclonicFury]

Climatologically it would make sense for at least 1-2 more Cape Verde storms to form before it all shuts down. So the FV3 seems reasonable.

Euro also shows a weak MDR storm at the end of the run. The unreliable CMC shows two but it should not be taken seriously. MDR development in the last 10 days of September is not as rare as one might think, so it's certainly possible we squeeze out one more named storm from the MDR.

[Emmett_Brown]

Climatologically it would make sense for at least 1-2 more Cape Verde storms to form before it all shuts down. So the FV3 seems reasonable.

Euro also shows a weak MDR storm at the end of the run. The unreliable CMC shows two but it should not be taken seriously. MDR development in the last 10 days of September is not as rare as one night think, so it's certainly possible we squeeze out one more named storm from the MDR.

The FV3 shows the wave (that it later develops) moving off of Africa in about 72 hours at a very low latitude, looks below 10N. Plenty of warm water there too.

[LarryWx]

Climatologically it would make sense for at least 1-2 more Cape Verde storms to form before it all shuts down. So the FV3 seems reasonable.

Euro also shows a weak MDR storm at the end of the run. The unreliable CMC shows two but it should not be taken seriously. MDR development in the last 10 days of September is not as rare as one night think, so it's certainly possible we squeeze out one more named storm from the MDR.

The FV3 shows the wave (that it later develops) moving off of Africa in about 72 hours at a very low latitude, looks below 10N. Plenty of warm water there too.

So, this is a much earlier wave than the one the Euro/EPS has been developing just off Africa near 9/25. This run ends on 10/4 with a H recurving NNE near 30N, 75W. Climowise, this FV3 scenario is quite possible.