2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[chaser1]

I like how the ECMWF forecast at 240h calls for fidget spinner

https://i2.wp.com/horsesnhurricanes.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/ecmwf240h.png

I saw that LOL! I was thinking something akin to a "tropical cyclone solar system"

[NDG]

0z Euro shows the strong TW emerging out of Africa today to track across the Atlantic into early next week at a fairly low latitude with some ensemble support for development but it gets shredded to pieces as it reaches the Lesser Antilles like 97L.

[boca]

The 06 GFS is back at the phantom storm at 384 hours hitting South Florida from the Western Caribbean.

[blp]

The 06 GFS is back at the phantom storm at 384 hours hitting South Florida from the Western Caribbean.

Looks to originate this from the tropical wave the will emerge in the next 24hrs. It looks like the models are hinting that the early October development may come from an MDR based wave. I think the hostile conditions in the Carribean that is forecasted in the late term will is a little overdone considering that the MJO will be primed in that area causing upward motion. Hard to see a wave make it into the W. Carribean in October with an MJO pulse and No El Nino and not develop.

[TheStormExpert]

06z GEFS Ensembles are not enthusiastic whatsoever on anything within the next two weeks.

[chaser1]

Forget 6 - 10 day; 12Z GFS is out and it's having a hard time seeing 97L right now??! I'm not even talking about as a surface feature, but hardly recognizes any level of closed system at 750mb or 500 mb.

[toad strangler]

The 06 GFS is back at the phantom storm at 384 hours hitting South Florida from the Western Caribbean.

Has to be baked in climo bias way out at that range. Exact same thing as last year in this part of the basin.

[toad strangler]

lol 12z GFS has a storm in the mid N Atlantic meandering around in a small circle for 8 days

[toad strangler]

lol 12z GFS has a storm in the mid N Atlantic meandering around in a small circle for 8 days

Check that, 18z GFS has that storm milling around in circles for 14 and a quarter days

[TheStormExpert]

Not to mention the western Caribbean phantom storm is gone once again!

[Hurricaneman]

Not to mention the western Caribbean phantom storm is gone once again!

I don’t think the models have a good handle on the MJO and it’s influence yet, we might have to wait a few more days to know for sure

[Hurricaneman]

Not to mention the western Caribbean phantom storm is gone once again!

Oh and by the way I think the western Caribbean thing whether phantom or not is the wave over Africa being discussed in that thread

[mitchell]

lol 12z GFS has a storm in the mid N Atlantic meandering around in a small circle for 8 days

Check that, 18z GFS has that storm milling around in circles for 14 and a quarter days

yep....Moves from SE of Newfoundland on Sept 22 to ...well...SE of Newfoundland on October 3

[LarryWx]

The Happy Hour GEFS has nothing like GEFS runs of recent days in the W Caribbean end of month to start of Oct. If even the 18Z has very little, I think we can rest a bit easier than we were for the time being. But keep in mind that the peak of W Caribbean genesis doesn’t even start petering out til the last week or so of October.

[EquusStorm]

I'm intrigued by that scary EPac bomb-out on the last few runs too; October is the month those things hit Mexico and create nasty issues.

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS seems to have a monsoon low form in the Western Caribbean, the question is is it a separate system or is it Kirk

[Frank2]

Per the GFS STRONG westerlies are forecast to drop southward in the next 10 days with a rapid progression of strong high pressure systems from Canada - just a guess but with snow already just north of the border (snowing in Alberta yesterday), the season is almost at an end:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 506&fh=360

[boca]

Way to much shear in the Caribbean for anything to form and Frank 2 said the westerlies are coming down so I think the US is pretty much safe.

[toad strangler]

Way to much shear in the Caribbean for anything to form and Frank 2 said the westerlies are coming down so I think the US is pretty much safe.

Well if you put any stock in longer range GFS shear forecasts (Next 16 days) the SW Caribbean will be on the low end anonymously but the N Caribbean and S GOM look to be wicked.

[MetroMike]

Pattern forecast bust by many expert Mets for next month.