2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[WeatherEmperor]

The 12z Canadian develops a storm in the Epac but leaves a developing 1008mb low spinning in the extreme SW Caribbean right at the end of the run at 240hrs. Is this what the GFS tries to develop in the super long range?




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[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS ensembles in the super long-range continue to be bullish and centered over the Western Caribbean. How the run ends below with a majority of ensembles members moving a hurricane slowly north:

[CourierPR]

The 12Z GFS ensembles in the super long-range continue to be bullish and centered over the Western Caribbean. How the run ends below with a majority of ensembles members moving a hurricane slowly north:

Met. Joe Bastardi tweeted about it this morning. He is eyeing the period from now through October 15 for more development.

[TheStormExpert]

The 12z Canadian develops a storm in the Epac but leaves a developing 1008mb low spinning in the extreme SW Caribbean right at the end of the run at 240hrs. Is this what the GFS tries to develop in the super long range?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180917/797dc28dc5313895043864aaef8cd1f1.png


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Usually when you have a tropical cyclone in the East Pacific so close to Central America or Mexico you don’t get anything in the Caribbean and vice versa.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the 12zeuro has come aboard with the Western Caribbean so the time to watch is the last few days of the month into early October

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like the 12zeuro has come aboard with the Western Caribbean so the time to watch is the last few days of the month into early October

I'm not seeing anything on the Euro as of yet. Since it doesn't go out past 240 hours it is a bit early for it to be showing something that would match what both GFS models are putting out. Need to wait until this weekend to see if the Euro follows suit.

[CyclonicFury]

The 12z Euro also develops a MDR storm, can't rule out another storm in this region yet.

[SFLcane]

Looks like the 12zeuro has come aboard with the Western Caribbean so the time to watch is the last few days of the month into early October

Onboard? There’s nothing to see on the euro.

[Abdullah]

I don't see any type of spin up there. What I do see, though, is some MDR Development... Thought that was dead.

[gatorcane]

GFS with a major hurricane in the Western Caribbean in the long-range:

[Hurricaneman]

GFS with a major hurricane in the Western Caribbean in the long-range:

https://i.postimg.cc/Kvyj6Qvt/gfs_pres_wind_watl_52.png

Its trying to pull a Wilma on the GFS if you account for truncation. If something that strong happens the Western Caribbean is the place to do it unfortunately

[blp]

18z GefS very bullish still. Need to keep an eye on this one.

[Hurricaneman]

18z GefS very bullish still. Need to keep an eye on this one.

The thing I noticed on this run is that the beginnings of cyclogenesis is before truncation as opposed to after the runs before, might have to watch the Western Caribbean around mid week next week

[blp]

Interesting EPS seems to be favoring C. Carribean and W. Carribean today even a few members reaching Florida. Yesterday it was in the Epac primarily.

[Hurricaneman]

Interesting EPS seems to be favoring C. Carribean and W. Carribean today even a few members reaching Florida. Yesterday it was in the Epac primarily.

https://image.ibb.co/jmXr6e/eps_mslp_rings_carib_348.png

Yep, looks like the Euro is coming aboard and I’m thinking that might mean it’s go time mid week next week onwards

[gatorcane]

GFS ensembles look quite bullish:

[gatorcane]

GFS with a major hurricane in the Western Caribbean in the long-range:

https://i.postimg.cc/Kvyj6Qvt/gfs_pres_wind_watl_52.png

Its trying to pull a Wilma on the GFS if you account for truncation. If something that strong happens the Western Caribbean is the place to do it unfortunately

Classic Western Caribbean October monster on simulated IR...thankfully 384 hours out:

But it could be a large storm if it develops, the model expands it as it pulls out of the NW Caribbean:

[Abdullah]

Is this to-be West Caribbean Storm going to be related to Ex-Isaac in any way?

[HurricaneEric]

Is this to-be West Caribbean Storm going to be related to Ex-Isaac in any way?

No not at all. Models are seeing this in the long range (300+ hours out).


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[boca]

GFS with a major hurricane in the Western Caribbean in the long-range:

https://i.postimg.cc/Kvyj6Qvt/gfs_pres_wind_watl_52.png

Its trying to pull a Wilma on the GFS if you account for truncation. If something that strong happens the Western Caribbean is the place to do it unfortunately

Classic Western Caribbean October monster on simulated IR...thankfully 384 hours out:

But it could be a large storm if it develops, the model expands it as it pulls out of the NW Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/bvkTL36d/gfs_ir_watl_53.png

How do you get that superimposed pic from the GFS model?