2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[wxman57]

00Z Euro has what looks like a frontal low east of Delaware Wednesday night. Good chance a weak low may form, but it may not get classified as a TS or STS, which is why the NHC isn't mentioning it.

[CyclonicFury]

Still no mention on 2 PM TWO. 12z UKMET text output indicates a weak TC. CMC appears to start the system tropical before becoming extratropical. ICON looks more extratropical. GFS continues to show nothing other than some disorganized vorticity.

[wxman57]

12Z EC develops what looks like too strong of a low as it exits the Outer Banks Wednesday morning but then quickly weakens it and merges it with a cold front by 12z Thursday. NHC is still not mentioning it, so it's unlikely they will bother with it.

[CyclonicFury]

12Z EC develops what looks like too strong of a low as it exits the Outer Banks Wednesday morning but then quickly weakens it and merges it with a cold front by 12z Thursday. NHC is still not mentioning it, so it's unlikely they will bother with it.

NHC could be waiting until the system exits the U.S. east coast, like they did with Claudette in 2015.

[cycloneye]

Folks,sit back,relax and enjoy the show that EPAC will put on in the next couple of weeks. We will have things in Atlantic to track when the meat of season comes.

[SoupBone]

Folks,sit back,relax and enjoy the show that EPAC will put on in the next couple of weeks. We will have things in Atlantic to track when the meat of season comes.

Or not, fingers crossed. Bring on Old Man Winter!

[cycloneye]

Expect delays in runs tonight.

@TropicalTidbits
Model delays expected tonight due to partial shutdown of NOAA supercomputer. The full extent of the delays is not yet known.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1011402043884560384

[cycloneye]

That was fast.

@TropicalTidbits
NOAA operations are back to normal.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1011428187413282816

[Ntxw]

Thank goodness. Some of us are waiting on more runs of the big EPAC hurricanes to see how low they go.

[CyclonicFury]

00z ICON barely develops the potential east coast system.

[GCANE]

Decent wave rolling past the CV Islands on Wednesday.

[cycloneye]

Note= You can post the model runs for the off North Carolina coast area on the new thread.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119656&p=2682780#p2682780

[gatorcane]

A bit further south and we could be talking TS or maybe more in northern Gulf. The GFS has it hugging coastline heading west:

[Dean4Storms]

A bit further south and we could be talking TS or maybe more in northern Gulf. The GFS has it hugging coastline heading west:

ECM EPS has close to 50% shot at Tropical Depression forming in the same general area of the upper central Gulf Coast from the 2nd thru the 4th.

[Alyono]

0Z high res EC has a TS moving into Texas next week

[TheStormExpert]

0Z high res has a TS moving into Texas next week

What model?

[SoupBone]

0Z high res has a TS moving into Texas next week

Pics? BTW, this site has some strange emoticons.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1011963267114250242

[wxman57]

12Z EC is much weaker with the northern Gulf disturbance next week. Just a bit of rain. No TS development. Closer to what the GFS is predicting. Rainy 4th of July for SE TX, perhaps. Here's a side-by-side comparison:

[wxman57]

Quite a bit less rain for Texas, too. Instead of over a foot of rain near San Antonio, perhaps a quarter inch.