2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Alyono]

2 TROPICAL storms by the middle of August and we are still complaining about a lack of activity

We're at 5/2/0. Not exactly the hallmark of an inactive season

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This time last year, Harvey was about to form before being ripped apart in the East Caribbean. Redevelopment was barely advertised in ensemble guidance, and global models showed no other cyclones forming for the next 2 weeks.

How'd that work out for us?

Intraseasonal forcing is about to become much more conducive for the Atlantic, especially after the first week of September. The brunt of our activity will likely come in the second half of September, but we're already at 5-2-0.

[Hammy]

Can you say 2013

Having already had two hurricanes (including a Cat 2) already puts 2018 ahead of 2013.

[gatorcane]

Models are not always good with predicting genesis beyond about 5 days. Just because a 16-day GFS run shows nothing especially the further out in time you go really doesn’t mean much.

[Hammy]

This time last year, Harvey was about to form before being ripped apart in the East Caribbean. Redevelopment was barely advertised in ensemble guidance, and global models showed no other cyclones forming for the next 2 weeks.

How'd that work out for us?

Intraseasonal forcing is about to become much more conducive for the Atlantic, especially after the first week of September. The brunt of our activity will likely come in the second half of September, but we're already at 5-2-0.

It almost seems like the global models are unable to foresee pattern changes in the tropics (especially the Atlantic) for whatever reason and just keep things in whatever the current base state is the entire run. If we're in a suppressed phase, they'll show nothing even if development is days away, and if we're in a more favorable phase, even if that's days away from ending, they'll show endless phantom storms.

[AnnularCane]

IIRC, at some point last year (maybe even around this time, or a bit earlier) everybody was giving up on the season too. Harvey falling apart by the islands probably didn't help matters any.

[CyclonicFury]

IIRC, at some point last year (maybe even around this time, or a bit earlier) everybody was giving up on the season too. Harvey falling apart by the islands probably didn't help matters any.

It was shortly after Harvey struggled and degenerated in the eastern Caribbean. There was a ton of 2013 comparisons because the MDR was dry etc. despite the Atlantic being above average. Initially, it appeared as if Harvey would probably only regenerate into a tropical storm in the BoC. Once Harvey rapidly intensified into a major hurricane, the season cancel posts quickly vanished. Just because the models show nothing in 16 days doesn't mean nothing else will form in 16 days.

[galaxy401]

Adding to those posts above, I looked back at older threads from past seasons and even during active seasons, there were moments in late August or September that had people discussing that the models were showing barely any tropical activity. Then suddenly a few days later, a hurricane begins to brew.

[CyclonicFury]

Adding to those posts above, I looked back at older threads from past seasons and even during active seasons, there were moments in late August or September that had people discussing that the models were showing barely any tropical activity. Then suddenly a few days later, a hurricane begins to brew.

Another factor to consider is models often don't do much with waves until they emerge into the Atlantic. Last year models didn't develop Jose and Lee until they were in the Atlantic. Even Maria (though models had it in the long range) wasn't picked up on models much until it began to show signs of development as a CCKW passed.

[tolakram]

5 day warning, just like numerous previous years IMO. August Angst(tm) happens every year.

[Steve]

Adding to those posts above, I looked back at older threads from past seasons and even during active seasons, there were moments in late August or September that had people discussing that the models were showing barely any tropical activity. Then suddenly a few days later, a hurricane begins to brew.

I’m sure I was on the other side of the arguments when warranted.

GFS wants that pattern repeat off the Eastern Canadian Coast with lows out ahead of fronts maybe with one circling back into the middle of the ocean instead of aiming toward Ireland and the UK. Looks to eject 3 lows in the 12 run with probably a slim chance of 2 of them becoming subtropical. Off the east coast is the early-season hotspot this year.

Edit - 18z so far shows the first low being the source of some energy that doesn’t get picked up (which seems improbable) but the low cuts back and spins around mostly weak so far

[Dylan]

Worth mentioning that the EPS ensembles continue to show the tropical Atlantic heating up towards the end of the month. To say the season is dead nearly a month before the climatological peak is ludicrous.

[hurricaneCW]

We've seen many years where the switch turns on out of nowhere, this usually happens post 8/20.

[MississippiWx]

Yes, we’ve had 5 named storms and two hurricanes. However, it is important to note that 3 of 5 formed from non-tropical processes. While 5 named storms isn’t too shabby, we must remember their origin. The tropics themselves have been a nightmare for even convection. Very few tropical waves can be noticed on satellite moving from Africa to the Caribbean. I believe that will change here shortly, as has been stated by several other posters.

The biggest worry to me is that the conditions near the US mainland have been fairly favorable for tropical development. The problem is getting a disturbance nearby. When (if) that occurs, we could have a problem somewhere. I think it’s fairly obvious that this won’t be a very active year in the MDR, but it doesn’t have to be either. It just takes one, and we have seen that hurricanes like Chris can form, regardless of tropical origin.

[gatorcane]

Another system of subtropical origin in the GFS long-range:

[SFLcane]

lol gatorcane this is getting a bit ridiculous now..

[PSUHiker31]

Another system of subtropical origin in the GFS long-range:

That's been trying to show up in the GFS and Euro for a while. The interesting thing about this one is that in most of the previous models, the ridge builds in and prevents it from moving north as it moves west

[Hammy]

lol gatorcane this is getting a bit ridiculous now..

2002 was mentioned as the closest possible analog to this year, and that's essentially what happened that year--only three storms actually had tropical origin.

[Hurricaneman]

Another system of subtropical origin in the GFS long-range:

The Euro shows this subtropical feature possibly being a threat and unlike the GFS the Euro shows a possible system near the CV islands coming off of Africa in 9 days so which is right the Euro or GFS or neither

[gatorcane]

Widespread lower pressure anomalies across the MDR between Lesser Antilles and Africa if the GFS long-range is correct. Compare to image today (bottom image). Something is bound to develop out there with this lower pressure:

Aug 31st:

Today: