2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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SouthFLTropics
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1841 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Sep 18, 2018 12:13 pm

12z GFS has a tropical cyclone heading NNW over the Cayman Islands at the end of the run. Long range still showing good support for Caribbean development late next week.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1842 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 18, 2018 12:38 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:12z GFS has a tropical cyclone heading NNW over the Cayman Islands at the end of the run. Long range still showing good support for Caribbean development late next week.


So far it's not bringing the time in its probably one of the many phantom tc's the gfs creates on a daily basis.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1843 Postby caneman » Tue Sep 18, 2018 12:44 pm

SFLcane wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:12z GFS has a tropical cyclone heading NNW over the Cayman Islands at the end of the run. Long range still showing good support for Caribbean development late next week.


So far it's not bringing the time in its probably one of the many phantom tc's the gfs creates on a daily basis.


GFS has got much better this year in not ramping up phantom storms
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1844 Postby toad strangler » Tue Sep 18, 2018 12:45 pm

SFLcane wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:12z GFS has a tropical cyclone heading NNW over the Cayman Islands at the end of the run. Long range still showing good support for Caribbean development late next week.


So far it's not bringing the time in its probably one of the many phantom tc's the gfs creates on a daily basis.



Could be but it does have a bunch of human met support on Twitter :lol:

FWIW the Test GFS has that low runner African origin storm again as in the 6z run. I can find it out to 180 only right now.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1845 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Sep 18, 2018 1:59 pm

toad strangler wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:12z GFS has a tropical cyclone heading NNW over the Cayman Islands at the end of the run. Long range still showing good support for Caribbean development late next week.


So far it's not bringing the time in its probably one of the many phantom tc's the gfs creates on a daily basis.



Could be but it does have a bunch of human met support on Twitter :lol:

FWIW the Test GFS has that low runner African origin storm again as in the 6z run. I can find it out to 180 only right now.


The funny thing is that is the same system/energy the both the GFS Operational model and test model show but the difference is that the Operational waits until the Western Caribbean while the test GFS shows it popping in the MDR, we may not know anything until the weekend
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1846 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:02 pm

The 12zEuro is showing low pressure forming in the western Caribbean in 10 days, based on this I believe the GFS tropical system in the western Caribbean may not be a phantom
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1847 Postby toad strangler » Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:32 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:The 12zEuro is showing low pressure forming in the western Caribbean in 10 days, based on this I believe the GFS tropical system in the western Caribbean may not be a phantom


If it's the same system the Euro is much more progressive as the GFS does not consider it until 290 plus hours.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1848 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 18, 2018 3:11 pm

The new 12Z EPS suggests little chance for a CONUS hit or hit just about anywhere over the next 2 weeks. OTOH, the GEFS keep showing something in the W Caribbean though this could be due to a GFS bias there.

Maybe we'll get a long much deserved break as so many want. Who knows?

Up next Happy Hour GFS/GEFS fwiw.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1849 Postby Abdullah » Tue Sep 18, 2018 3:52 pm

So far, it seems like only the GFS is onboard with this Western Caribbean System.

HurricaneEric wrote:
Abdullah wrote:Is this to-be West Caribbean Storm going to be related to Ex-Isaac in any way?


No not at all. Models are seeing this in the long range (300+ hours out).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Thanks!

By any chance, does anyone know where I can find the UKMET Model Graphics?
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1850 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:32 pm

Abdullah wrote:So far, it seems like only the GFS is onboard with this Western Caribbean System.

HurricaneEric wrote:
Abdullah wrote:Is this to-be West Caribbean Storm going to be related to Ex-Isaac in any way?


No not at all. Models are seeing this in the long range (300+ hours out).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Thanks!

By any chance, does anyone know where I can find the UKMET Model Graphics?



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/index.html
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1851 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:45 pm

LarryWx wrote:The new 12Z EPS suggests little chance for a CONUS hit or hit just about anywhere over the next 2 weeks. OTOH, the GEFS keep showing something in the W Caribbean though this could be due to a GFS bias there.

Maybe we'll get a long much deserved break as so many want. Who knows?

Up next Happy Hour GFS/GEFS fwiw.

The Euro and it’s ensembles don’t go beyond 10 days which is why it shows nothing as this isn’t supposed to start until after 10 days but what the Euro does show is lowering pressures at 10 days which could mean cyclogenesis at day 11 if the Euro went that far
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1852 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:08 pm

18z GFS closes a low pressure area just east of the Lesser Antilles from 12 to 84hrs.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1853 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:09 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
LarryWx wrote:The new 12Z EPS suggests little chance for a CONUS hit or hit just about anywhere over the next 2 weeks. OTOH, the GEFS keep showing something in the W Caribbean though this could be due to a GFS bias there.

Maybe we'll get a long much deserved break as so many want. Who knows?

Up next Happy Hour GFS/GEFS fwiw.

The Euro and it’s ensembles don’t go beyond 10 days which is why it shows nothing as this isn’t supposed to start until after 10 days but what the Euro does show is lowering pressures at 10 days which could mean cyclogenesis at day 11 if the Euro went that far

If you pay for them, yes they do.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1854 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:16 pm

18Z GFS goes crazy with the remnants (or some derivative energy) of Florence, and stalls it in the middle of the Atlantic. Would be some extra ACE if that happened.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1855 Postby Ken711 » Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:40 pm

Emmett_Brown wrote:18Z GFS goes crazy with the remnants (or some derivative energy) of Florence, and stalls it in the middle of the Atlantic. Would be some extra ACE if that happened.


I hope it doesn't take a NC track ala Florence. :cry:
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1856 Postby storm4u » Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:27 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
LarryWx wrote:The new 12Z EPS suggests little chance for a CONUS hit or hit just about anywhere over the next 2 weeks. OTOH, the GEFS keep showing something in the W Caribbean though this could be due to a GFS bias there.

Maybe we'll get a long much deserved break as so many want. Who knows?

Up next Happy Hour GFS/GEFS fwiw.

The Euro and it’s ensembles don’t go beyond 10 days which is why it shows nothing as this isn’t supposed to start until after 10 days but what the Euro does show is lowering pressures at 10 days which could mean cyclogenesis at day 11 if the Euro went that far

If you pay for them, yes they do.



Don't even have to pay for them.. weather.us. has them for FREE!!!!!
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1857 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:16 am

CMC is the most definitive of backing off a piece of Florence around to South and North Carolina with a final remember me shot. While it’s not like it could do that much more damage as a repeat TS after the rivers crest, it could certainly hamper people’s cleanup and recovery.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91900&fh=6
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1858 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:18 am

Steve wrote:CMC is the most definitive of backing off a piece of Florence around to South and North Carolina with a final remember me shot. While it’s not like it could do that much more damage as a repeat TS after the rivers crest, it could certainly hamper people’s cleanup and recovery.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91900&fh=6

I call it Florence’s baby
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1859 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:22 am

Not much to see here GFS all over the place in regards to development. Still not bringing the time in...it's another phantom most likely

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1860 Postby boca » Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:46 am

SFLcane wrote:Not much to see here GFS all over the place in regards to development. Still not bringing the time in...it's another phantom most likely

https://www.imageupload.co.uk/images/2018/09/19/ensembles.png


How do you find that map of the pressures on the tropical titbits map?
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