2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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SFLcane
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#301 Postby SFLcane » Wed May 16, 2018 11:54 am

12z GFS has a moderate sheared TS into SFL..
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#302 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed May 16, 2018 12:02 pm

12z GFS is more what one would expect for late-May. Major hurricane was beyond laughable.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#303 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 16, 2018 12:56 pm

@ToddKimberlain
Possible tropical cyclone development in the global models in 7-10 days appears related to a CCKW propagating out of east/central Pacific. Whatever forms, if anything, is likely to encounter considerable westerly shear. To be expected in late May. #tropics #heavyrain #hurricane




https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/996806691927846912
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#304 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed May 16, 2018 1:51 pm

12z Euro bullish, has a 1005 mb closed low over the NW Caribbean at hour 216.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_10.png
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#305 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 16, 2018 1:52 pm

12z ECMWF has a sheared Tropical Storm near Cozumel on day 9.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#306 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 16, 2018 1:58 pm

If this pans out,it will be a big coup for GFS that has been with this for many days regardless if it has shown cat 1-2 hurricane in some of it's runs.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#307 Postby gatorcane » Wed May 16, 2018 1:59 pm

ECMWF like the GFS show this heading towards the SE GOM area in the long-range. How about this agreement between the two best models at hour 240?!?

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#308 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed May 16, 2018 2:07 pm

gatorcane wrote:ECMWF like the GFS show this heading towards the SE GOM area in the long-range. How about this agreement between the two best models at hour 240?!?

[img]https://s9.]


Gator,

It looks like the ECMWF has the system moving NE towards Florida. It also has it as a 1000mb TS which looks like a moderate strength TS. Need to watch future runs if this continues.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#309 Postby boca » Wed May 16, 2018 2:17 pm

Looks like convection is forming down in the NW Caribbean but I’m not sure if it’s part of the GOM system or a separate system.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#310 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed May 16, 2018 2:32 pm

12z Canadian joins the GFS and ECMWF with a TS.

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#311 Postby wxman57 » Wed May 16, 2018 2:41 pm

cycloneye wrote:If this pans out,it will be a big coup for GFS that has been with this for many days regardless if it has shown cat 1-2 hurricane in some of it's runs.


Actually, the GFS had been predicting this storm to develop beyond the range of the Euro until very recently (13-15 days out). A week ago, the GFS was predicting the storm to develop this Friday/Saturday. With time, the development shifted to late next week. About the time development fell to within 10 days, the EC and CMC picked up on it.

I'd say development chances are very high, given that it's a holiday weekend and my team is short-staffed that weekend (and we all have plans). Yep, it's a certainty that something will develop...
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#312 Postby wxman57 » Wed May 16, 2018 2:43 pm

boca wrote:Looks like convection is forming down in the NW Caribbean but I’m not sure if it’s part of the GOM system or a separate system.


A week too early. That blob is something else.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#313 Postby NotSparta » Wed May 16, 2018 3:03 pm

:uarrow: just some convection caused by convergence, not the CAG like the future disturbance comes out of
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#314 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed May 16, 2018 3:17 pm

Classic late-May/early-June development. TS Beryl 2007 and TS Alberto 2006 ring a bell?
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#315 Postby psyclone » Wed May 16, 2018 3:20 pm

The June East Gulf slop storm, which used to be an every other year affair is morphing into an annual tradition.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#316 Postby floridasun78 » Wed May 16, 2018 3:28 pm

hope don't pan out mean kiss long weekend bye bye in fl
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#317 Postby AdamFirst » Wed May 16, 2018 3:35 pm

It'd be kind of wild to have a two week long rainy deluge here that is topped off with a tropical storm at the end.

For what it's worth: NAVGEM is on board showing a weak low pressure in the Yucatan Channel at 180 hours. The experimental FV3 has a potent hurricane in the Yucatan Channel at 240 hours, slightly to the southwest of the EURO's position (EURO being considerably weaker)
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#318 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 16, 2018 5:39 pm

GFS has the timeframe considerably closer now compared to previous runs.

Image

Shows development is assisted by the WWB in the EPAC that has spread into the western Caribbean.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#319 Postby northjaxpro » Wed May 16, 2018 5:49 pm

18Z GFS has a sheared 1001 mb TS moving over South Florida at 234 hours, then strengthens it to 990 mb off the coast of Naples at 240 hours.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#320 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 16, 2018 5:55 pm

18z GFS makes sure none of the southern states get left behind:

Image
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