2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[txwatcher91]

Of note is that the GFS did a great job in the long range, days 10-16, picking up on the system that is now 90L and likely will become a TS in a few days (even though it took longer to get going than indicated). The fact it's been showing something else forming in the Caribbean about 10-15 days out is concerning.

[gatorcane]

The GFS is still showing some development out of the monsoon trough in the long-range:

[cycloneye]

@TropicalTidbits
The NCEP model server has been offline since Sunday evening, so new model runs from the GFS and other NCEP models will not be plotted until the server comes back online.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1001086398651420672

[USTropics]

The main NOMADS server is down that supplies the GFS data to the public. However, the backup server looks fully functional and data can still be found here - http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/. Levi is attempting to switch his server requests to the backup server.

[cycloneye]

From Levi:

Update 11am EDT: The NCEP model server is back up, but some products may continue to be delayed today.

[gatorcane]

The GFS is still showing off and on development in the long-range (<10 days):

[northjaxpro]

By the way, 18Z GFS continues to show potential development in the NW Caribbean (1008 mb broad Low) moving north into the Southern GOM in 240 hours.

[underthwx]

By the way, 18Z GFS continues to show potential development in the NW Caribbean (1008 mb broad Low) moving north into the Southern GOM in 240 hours.

What is the GFS showing currently as far as potential development in the long range?

[NDG]

Latest 06z GFS drops the idea of more development in the W Caribbean/SE GOM, jumps on board with the Euro of development in the EPAC instead.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1001456809440407552

[Weather150]

Latest 06z GFS drops the idea of more development in the W Caribbean/SE GOM, jumps on board with the Euro of development in the EPAC instead.

It didn't really drop it, it shows something trying to get going, but doesn't manage to.

[Taffy]

Following

[N2FSU]

[Weather150]

GWO is predicting Beryl will form sometime from June 6th-12th somewhere in the Gulf. They got Alberto spot on.

[StruThiO]

GWO, the same company that is anticipating a season similar to if not worse than last year, with the coldest MDR since 1994?

[Javlin]

GWO, the same company that is anticipating a season similar to if not worse than last year, with the coldest MDR since 1994?

Just remember the MDR is way in the Atlantic while the GOM is another body of water all to itself.The speculation from what I have read thus far over the winter was a possible more active area's closer to home like the GOm and WCARB.

[StruThiO]

Yeah I know and it wasn't a personal attack at all, I just have strong opinions about their "methodology" lol

[Javlin]

Yeah I know and it wasn't a personal attack at all, I just have strong opinions about their "methodology" lol

That's OK but the MDR could warm just enough come August/September to come into play and as the story is is told "it only takes one"

[Twisted-core]

cutoff low devolops off the se thinks the 00z met.

[La Breeze]

Will be down in the Keys and Key West the week of June 11-15 - starting to get a bit concerned with statements saying there is a possibility of something brewing in the GOM or SW Carib. around that time frame. How reliable are these models and statements?