2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
gatorcane wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:12z Euro shows an impressive large wave attempting to develop over the MDR next week
Indeed the EC has woken up. It heard the “Aug 20th bell.” Heading for Caribbean at 216 hours:
The setup on the Euro is similar to many notable Gulf Coast hurricanes such as Charley, Dennis, Ivan, Frederic and Camille so this will have to be watched in future runs
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Just 1 small problem... thankfully record shear awaits anything coming into the caribbean.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
SFLcane wrote:Just 1 small problem... thankfully record shear awaits anything coming into the caribbean.
While shear has been very strong over the Caribbean this summer (3rd strongest on record in fact), shear does change. Most likely it will be strong at the time but you never know for sure, a window could open up.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
EC also has another system SE of Hawaii at the end of the run
The hurricane hunters may be there for a while... barring a direct Oahu hit of course
The hurricane hunters may be there for a while... barring a direct Oahu hit of course
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
SFLcane wrote:Just 1 small problem... thankfully record shear awaits anything coming into the caribbean.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
StruThiO wrote:SFLcane wrote:Just 1 small problem... thankfully record shear awaits anything coming into the caribbean.
Shear does not look too strong at the moment, first time this year I think I have seen all of the Caribbean with shear 20 kt or less. Shear is subject to large changes every day so it is hard to say what shear will be like there in about 10 days.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Animation of the run.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
tolakram wrote:Animation of the run.
[]https://i.imgur.com/wnfEyak.gif[/img]
Need to see if it is still there on the 00z because EPS does not have any members showing this. Instead EPS is showing support for the wave behind this one.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
System on the Euro is moving at about ~20mph by the time it enters the Caribbean. GFS around that time shoes severe wind shear across the eastern Caribbean around that time.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
wxGuy wrote: I see some rotation and t storm activity few hundred mi off east coast of FL.. could be something here
Global models are unanimous in deforming this weak surface trough/low level vortex as it moves NW and N around the western side of the Atlantic ridge tonight-tomorrow, then completely shear it out by tomorrow night.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
blp wrote:tolakram wrote:Animation of the run.
[]https://i.imgur.com/wnfEyak.gif[/img]
Need to see if it is still there on the 00z because EPS does not have any members showing this. Instead EPS is showing support for the wave behind this one.
Either way it seems the Euro has been trending a bit stronger over time with how strong the waves coming off are.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Just aint seeing the money right now. Show me da money.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
slamdaddy wrote:Just aint seeing the money right now. Show me da money.
Hopefully the money is counterfeit since quiet is a great thing, especially after last year's horrible season. We so deserve this reprieve.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Well, we are approaching the supposedly peak time of activity in the deep tropics of the North Atlantic basin and it is as quiet out there as I can ever recall in the MDR. Wow.. It is almost eerily docile.
But , as Larry stated above, I welcome this long period of inactivity after last year's incredulous deadly season. We definitely deserve this break. We shall see how long this inactivity will continue in the MDR. Conventional wisdom obviously would lead us to think that the basin will wake up at some point uh?
But , as Larry stated above, I welcome this long period of inactivity after last year's incredulous deadly season. We definitely deserve this break. We shall see how long this inactivity will continue in the MDR. Conventional wisdom obviously would lead us to think that the basin will wake up at some point uh?
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Such is the problem with “conventional wisdom”. Times they are changing , and it is possible to make it through September without activity. Here’s hoping the models continue to show a blank slate.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
hcane27 wrote:Such is the problem with “conventional wisdom”. Times they are changing , and it is possible to make it through September without activity. Here’s hoping the models continue to show a blank slate.
Yeah, well I hope you are close to being correct with your assessment.
.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
12Z GFS appears to have two weak TCs in the MDR late in the run
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
CyclonicFury wrote:12Z GFS appears to have two weak TCs in the MDR late in the run
Loop.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
CMC is also showing MDR development now in the long-range:
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