2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[gatorcane]

How the EC run ends:

[Hurricaneman]

12z Euro shows an impressive large wave attempting to develop over the MDR next week

Indeed the EC has woken up. It heard the “Aug 20th bell.” Heading for Caribbean at 216 hours:

The setup on the Euro is similar to many notable Gulf Coast hurricanes such as Charley, Dennis, Ivan, Frederic and Camille so this will have to be watched in future runs

[SFLcane]

Just 1 small problem... thankfully record shear awaits anything coming into the caribbean.

[CyclonicFury]

Just 1 small problem... thankfully record shear awaits anything coming into the caribbean.

While shear has been very strong over the Caribbean this summer (3rd strongest on record in fact), shear does change. Most likely it will be strong at the time but you never know for sure, a window could open up.

[Alyono]

EC also has another system SE of Hawaii at the end of the run

The hurricane hunters may be there for a while... barring a direct Oahu hit of course

[StruThiO]

Just 1 small problem... thankfully record shear awaits anything coming into the caribbean.

[CyclonicFury]

Just 1 small problem... thankfully record shear awaits anything coming into the caribbean.

Shear does not look too strong at the moment, first time this year I think I have seen all of the Caribbean with shear 20 kt or less. Shear is subject to large changes every day so it is hard to say what shear will be like there in about 10 days.

[tolakram]

Animation of the run.

[blp]

Animation of the run.

[]https://i.imgur.com/wnfEyak.gif[/img]

Need to see if it is still there on the 00z because EPS does not have any members showing this. Instead EPS is showing support for the wave behind this one.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

System on the Euro is moving at about ~20mph by the time it enters the Caribbean. GFS around that time shoes severe wind shear across the eastern Caribbean around that time.

[AJC3]

I see some rotation and t storm activity few hundred mi off east coast of FL.. could be something here

Global models are unanimous in deforming this weak surface trough/low level vortex as it moves NW and N around the western side of the Atlantic ridge tonight-tomorrow, then completely shear it out by tomorrow night.

[Hammy]

Animation of the run.

[]https://i.imgur.com/wnfEyak.gif[/img]

Need to see if it is still there on the 00z because EPS does not have any members showing this. Instead EPS is showing support for the wave behind this one.

Either way it seems the Euro has been trending a bit stronger over time with how strong the waves coming off are.

[slamdaddy]

Just aint seeing the money right now. Show me da money.

[LarryWx]

Just aint seeing the money right now. Show me da money.

Hopefully the money is counterfeit since quiet is a great thing, especially after last year's horrible season. We so deserve this reprieve.

[northjaxpro]

Well, we are approaching the supposedly peak time of activity in the deep tropics of the North Atlantic basin and it is as quiet out there as I can ever recall in the MDR. Wow.. It is almost eerily docile.

But , as Larry stated above, I welcome this long period of inactivity after last year's incredulous deadly season. We definitely deserve this break. We shall see how long this inactivity will continue in the MDR. Conventional wisdom obviously would lead us to think that the basin will wake up at some point uh?

[hcane27]

Such is the problem with “conventional wisdom”. Times they are changing , and it is possible to make it through September without activity. Here’s hoping the models continue to show a blank slate.

[northjaxpro]

Such is the problem with “conventional wisdom”. Times they are changing , and it is possible to make it through September without activity. Here’s hoping the models continue to show a blank slate.

Yeah, well I hope you are close to being correct with your assessment.
.

[CyclonicFury]

12Z GFS appears to have two weak TCs in the MDR late in the run

[cycloneye]

12Z GFS appears to have two weak TCs in the MDR late in the run

Loop.

[gatorcane]

CMC is also showing MDR development now in the long-range: