2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1341 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Aug 17, 2018 7:38 pm

:uarrow: Also there is good ridging across the Eastern U.S. with a weakness around 55W. So assuming things wait to develop further west where SST’s are warmer which is closer to 60W than the only way they’ll go is west towards Florida or the SE U.S. or the Gulf of Mexico.

Image
2 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7280
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1342 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Aug 18, 2018 12:24 am

The models show another system in the Subtropical Atlantic and may need to be watched as the Euro seems to send that feature close to the Bahamas while the GFS sends it to Bermuda so let’s hope this system isn’t being underestimated as systems like this tend to be and let’s hope this doesn’t end up an east coast threat
2 likes   

User avatar
AJC3
Admin
Admin
Posts: 3866
Age: 60
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: West Melbourne, Florida
Contact:

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1343 Postby AJC3 » Sat Aug 18, 2018 7:41 pm

Gang,

Several of the posts in here were more suited for the seasonal thread, and as such have been moved over there...
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=&start=860

Let's try to keep the discussion here more specific to the latest global model guidance runs, and carry on the more general discussions about conditions and longer range outlooks over there.
Carry on... and thanks.
8 likes   

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1970
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1344 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:01 am

00z GFS has a strong TS in the MDR in the super long range.
1 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7280
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1345 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:19 am

CyclonicFury wrote:00z GFS has a strong TS in the MDR in the super long range.


Yep and that setup is not what you want to see but as we all know it could be different in a few days
0 likes   

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1970
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1346 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:21 am

FWIW, the 12z ECMWF EPS was also showing some MDR activity at hour 300+. Quite far out but climatology would normally suggest that the MDR should come to life during this time period.
0 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1347 Postby GCANE » Sun Aug 19, 2018 4:38 am

GFS spins up a CV surface low Thursday

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Dylan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 337
Age: 29
Joined: Mon May 31, 2010 9:50 am
Location: New Orleans, LA

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1348 Postby Dylan » Sun Aug 19, 2018 5:30 am

Anyone that has been looking at the GEFS/EPS should be surprised that the 0z GFS shows a Cape Verde system. Also, climatology plays a factor. The Atlantic is eventually going to wake up, even if its for only a very brief period of time.
3 likes   
Georges('98), Allison('01), Isidore('02), Lili('02), Frances('04) Ivan('04), Cindy('05), Katrina('05), Rita('05), Gustav('08), Isaac('12), Matthew('16), Harvey('17), Irma('17), Nate ('17), Ida ('21).

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9594
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1349 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 19, 2018 6:50 am

Yep and it’s also gone on the 06z gfs run... :roll:
0 likes   

HURRICANELONNY
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1381
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 6:48 am
Location: HOLLYWOOD.FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1350 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:15 am

Models are hinting by end of the month a strong wave coming off Africa. That usually is the time for more conducive factors in the tropics. The SAL should lessen as well as SST at least normal in most parts atlantic. El Nino not here yet :roll:
0 likes   
hurricanelonny

User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3339
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1351 Postby tailgater » Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:28 am

Hurricaneman wrote:The models show another system in the Subtropical Atlantic and may need to be watched as the Euro seems to send that feature close to the Bahamas while the GFS sends it to Bermuda so let’s hope this system isn’t being underestimated as systems like this tend to be and let’s hope this doesn’t end up an east coast threat


Looks like this may pan out.Image
Last edited by tailgater on Sun Aug 19, 2018 1:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1970
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1352 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:05 pm

The ECMWF and GFS models both indicate the potential for a non-tropical low to form west of the Azores. It's unclear whether it will be able to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics, but we are getting into late August so we will have to watch. Both the ECMWF and GFS models meander the low over warm waters for several days, so it will be interesting to see what happens.
0 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1353 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 19, 2018 2:26 pm

tailgater wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:The models show another system in the Subtropical Atlantic and may need to be watched as the Euro seems to send that feature close to the Bahamas while the GFS sends it to Bermuda so let’s hope this system isn’t being underestimated as systems like this tend to be and let’s hope this doesn’t end up an east coast threat


Looks like this may pan out.Image


This disturbance/weak vorticity is under some westerly shear and high pressure environment, very little if any development out this, IMO.

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
KatDaddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2815
Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2002 6:23 pm
Location: League City, Texas

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1354 Postby KatDaddy » Sun Aug 19, 2018 2:35 pm

Lets keep that shear strong over the GOM. Many people still recovering from Harvey in the Houston-Galveston areas as we approaching the 1 year anniversary next weekend.
2 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4928
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1355 Postby Nimbus » Sun Aug 19, 2018 3:17 pm

The dry wave/remnants in the Caribbean would need a long stretch of low shear environment to develop into a named storm. Shear is a constantly evolving feature but the Pacific is more interesting even if that is only high surf advisories.
0 likes   

User avatar
Dylan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 337
Age: 29
Joined: Mon May 31, 2010 9:50 am
Location: New Orleans, LA

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1356 Postby Dylan » Sun Aug 19, 2018 4:24 pm

12z EPS members continue to show a burst of activity after Day 7 in the Atlantic Basin.
2 likes   
Georges('98), Allison('01), Isidore('02), Lili('02), Frances('04) Ivan('04), Cindy('05), Katrina('05), Rita('05), Gustav('08), Isaac('12), Matthew('16), Harvey('17), Irma('17), Nate ('17), Ida ('21).

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2800
Age: 45
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1357 Postby blp » Sun Aug 19, 2018 4:44 pm

Dylan wrote:12z EPS members continue to show a burst of activity after Day 7 in the Atlantic Basin.


Yep, should start showing up on the operational runs this coming week.

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
wxGuy
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 104
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:50 pm

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1358 Postby wxGuy » Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:06 am

Image
I see some rotation and t storm activity few hundred mi off east coast of FL.. could be something here
0 likes   

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1970
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1359 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Aug 20, 2018 1:44 pm

12z Euro shows an impressive large wave attempting to develop over the MDR next week
0 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1360 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 20, 2018 1:50 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:12z Euro shows an impressive large wave attempting to develop over the MDR next week


Indeed the EC has woken up. It heard the “Aug 20th bell.” Heading for Caribbean at 216 hours:

Image
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cycloneye, Google [Bot], pepeavilenho, Teban54 and 62 guests