2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[LarryWx]

There is now near unanimous agreement that there will be a tropical low forming in the NW Caribbean about 7 days from now or around 5/24. (This compares to those GFS runs on their own around a week ago that were forming it there around 5/18-19 and turning it into an unrealistic for May cat 2 H later hitting FL on many runs.)

From there, the models have it move northward to or near FL around day 10 (near 5/27). Most models bring it to TS strength then though GFS runs have a cat 1 H. I think TS strength would be more realistic in late May. FL is now clearly at risk for a TS around 5/27 with this model agreement.

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS ensembles clustered in the EGOM and west coast of Florida:

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 706&fh=210

NEWGFS if on crack

[cycloneye]

Ventrice is still skeptic.

@MJVentrice
A bit more credibility for a potential tropical threat over the Gulf of Mexico the weekend of Memorial Day. Still a lot left for the models to resolve, but I cannot overlook the fact that the GEM and ECMWF and in agreement with the GFS now. Still room for change as fcst comes in

@MJVentrice
Even though there's agreement now, I'm still skeptical on the idea of this system developing. It clearly has a more credible shot, but there's a lot of things the models have to get right in order to nail this forecast. Call me a skeptic, but we have hard time in the tropics

[weathaguyry]

The FV3-GFS is the new comedy section of tropical tidbits

[gatorcane]

Experimental FIM also shows development in the NW Caribbean, 168 hours below:

[stormlover2013]

EURO on board then I am almost on board still need a Low to form...just so hard to trust models right now this early on in the season but should be fun to watch the next 2 weeks

[MGC]

The FV3-GFS is the new comedy section of tropical tidbits

It is.....06Z run has a 933mb cane on Louisiana coast on May 31st.....MGC

[Ivanhater]

Storm2k getting an early start this season..hopefully not a sign of what's to come for the 2018 season. This would ruin many folks MDW plans depending where it goes

[wxman57]

The FV3-GFS is the new comedy section of tropical tidbits

It is.....06Z run has a 933mb cane on Louisiana coast on May 31st.....MGC

And it sits on the SE Louisiana coast for 2 days as a major hurricane, putting New Orleans underwater. This "upgraded" GFS is going to be interesting...

[chris_fit]

Anyone know what the FSU SE says?

[NotSparta]

New GFS shows the storm managing to use the subtropical jet as an outflow jet

[PSUHiker31]

The FV3 is hot garbage as most meteorologists thought when they chose it for the upgrade over the better option.

Of course on the extremely tiny chance it's sniffing something out the other models aren't (I'll give it that the Euro underdid intensity often last year at this range), then I'll eat my words. But I sincerely doubt that will be the case.

[LarryWx]

How could the FV3 even be doing that with the N GOM
not even all that warm? It doesn't make any sense.

[NotSparta]

How could the FV3 even be doing that with the N GOM
not even all that warm? It doesn't make any sense.

GoM is warming, especially the N GOM. It might be enhanced by that outflow jet it shows (this would require low environmental shear and little dry air too to become so strong. It is extremely unlikely, and is probably tied to too much convective feedback)

it reminds me of the NAM actually. Does quite well with extratropical wx, but consistently overdoes TCs

[Frank2]

Unlike Irma last year, I'm retired now, so I don't have to remain in South Florida, for this stuff...

When will the current area of disturbed weather be considered an Invest - there's enough weather moving north from Cuba at this time.

Frank

[Ntxw]

How could the FV3 even be doing that with the N GOM
not even all that warm? It doesn't make any sense.

It's very unrealistic in the real world for such an outcome that far north with current SSTs. Unless you were looking a bombing system in the Carib that quickly moved north and merged with the jet stream with some deep trof which is nothing like what the FV3 is showing. It's very difficult to bomb something in the Atlantic even during the heart of the season with much warmer SSTss, no less in May..

In general the model consensus we can all agree is increased Carib moisture into the eastern and Ngulf from WWB coming over from the EPAC which has been the case for the past week now, example the last system.

[NDG]

Already a noticeable vortex over the SW Caribbean, looking at the 06z GFS this is the main area of vorticity that it has almost stalled over the next 3-5 days or so before moving over the NW Caribbean mid next week.

[Alyono]

How could the FV3 even be doing that with the N GOM
not even all that warm? It doesn't make any sense.

It's very unrealistic in the real world for such an outcome that far north with current SSTs. Unless you were looking a bombing system in the Carib that quickly moved north and merged with the jet stream with some deep trof which is nothing like what the FV3 is showing. It's very difficult to bomb something in the Atlantic even during the heart of the season with much warmer SSTss, no less in May..

In general the model consensus we can all agree is increased Carib moisture into the eastern and Ngulf from WWB coming over from the EPAC which has been the case for the past week now, example the last system.

looking at the 250mb winds, it seems to be perfectly tapping into the jet stream. Very strong NW outflow jet

[AutoPenalti]

Until there is some sort of center that models can pinpoint, any future track would be pointless to look at in the long range.