2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Ntxw]

Lets remember the FV3 is experimental and record is unproven since it is at a fairly young stage.

[Alyono]

Wow the FV3 GFS is going bonkers with this system:

Wasn't this model supposed to reduce phantom storms like this?

https://s14.postimg.cc/jywutzde9/fv3p_m ... atl_43.png

If I had to take a guess it looks like a potential convective feedback issues is going to be a MAJOR problem with this new-GFS. Correct me if I’m wrong, Alyono knows more about this.

This looks like it is placing the monsoon trough a bit too far east. I could buy this solution for June

[floridasun78]

FV3 at 240 hours. Just for fun.....

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201805 ... 718190.png


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yes look only for wake us up for hurr season fl don't need early season system w3e have more worry about in aug

[floridasun78]

Lets remember the FV3 is experimental and record is unproven since it is at a fairly young stage.

let say this models have bugs need be fix by aug doing peak of season

[NotSparta]

Wow the FV3 GFS is going bonkers with this system:

Wasn't this model supposed to reduce phantom storms like this?

https://s14.postimg.cc/jywutzde9/fv3p_m ... atl_43.png

If I had to take a guess it looks like a potential convective feedback issues is going to be a MAJOR problem with this new-GFS. Correct me if I’m wrong, Alyono knows more about this.

This looks like it is placing the monsoon trough a bit too far east. I could buy this solution for June

Seems like a common model problem, and end up forming a Caribbean TC when genesis is really in the EPAC

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS going with development again starting around days 8-9 so timeframe. 240 hour frame below:

[gatorcane]

The 18Z FV3 GFS is coming in even stronger:

[TheStormExpert]

I'm pretty sure there is a 99.9% chance of that not happening! Climatology wouldn't favor it.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

:uarrow: I'm pretty sure there is a 99.9% chance of that not happening! Climatology wouldn't favor it.

Closest analogy would be Hurricane Alma, a major hurricane in early-June.

[gatorcane]

Down to 968mb on the 18Z F3V GFS and crawling NNW near the Western tip of Cuba. Really?

[TheStormExpert]

Down to 968mb on the 18Z F3V GFS and crawling NNW near the Western tip of Cuba. Really?

Feels like we're model watching a real potential tropical cyclone you'd see in the peak months of August, September, or October. Staying up for 00z?

[djones65]

Alma was in 1966. In 1982 Alberto was 985 mb just northwest of Cuba on June 3rd. Before shear decapitated it.
I am not saying it will happen, but there is precedence.

[djones65]

Alma's lowest pressure recorded by land station was 970.2 mb at the Dry Tortugas in the Keys.
Also, in 1995 hurricane Allison occurred in early June over the central Gulf of Mexico.
All I am saying is that although unlikely there have been several occurrences of extremely early hurricanes in this portion of the world.
So I am willing to watch and see.

[Cpv17]

This would be epic

[StruThiO]

This is egregious even for an experimental model

[storm4u]

The new GFS gets it down to the 940s in the gom...

[NotSparta]

Seems to love overstrengthening things, and it doesn't have the resolution drop, so, pressure remains low in the long range.

940s are extremely unlikely.

[TheStormExpert]

The current-GFS and the new-GFS are the only two models that even show development in the Western Caribbean. The others show either weak development in the East Pacific off the west coast of Mexico or Central America or no development at all. I would totally ignore the full blown major in the Gulf that the GFS is showing.

[weathaguyry]

All this tells me is to look for lowering pressures in the ~240 hr range around Central America.

[Steve H.]

If development were to occur this would be a good area for it to happen certainly not at the pressures the model is showing. So development here in early June is certainly not out of the question.