2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1221 Postby AdamFirst » Sun Jul 29, 2018 6:52 pm

Since the Atlantic basin is dead as a doornail, how about the (rapidly weakening) tropical storm that's off the coast of Southern California in 300 hours?

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1222 Postby CaliforniaResident » Sun Jul 29, 2018 7:53 pm

AdamFirst wrote:Since the Atlantic basin is dead as a doornail, how about the (rapidly weakening) tropical storm that's off the coast of Southern California in 300 hours?

https://i.imgur.com/KluZtF5.png


SST off the San Diego coast hit 79F this afternoon. Ever since the PDO flipped to warm, mid to upper 70s SST occur several times each summer. When we were in a cold PDO, the SST had a hard time breaking 70F and would only do so for a few days at a time each summer. Could "Hector" or "Illeana" possibly sustain itself as a weak tropical storm making landfall?
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1223 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Jul 29, 2018 7:57 pm

CaliforniaResident wrote:
AdamFirst wrote:Since the Atlantic basin is dead as a doornail, how about the (rapidly weakening) tropical storm that's off the coast of Southern California in 300 hours?

https://i.imgur.com/KluZtF5.png


SST off the San Diego coast hit 79F this afternoon. Ever since the PDO flipped to warm, mid to upper 70s SST occur several times each summer. When we were in a cold PDO, the SST had a hard time breaking 70F and would only do so for a few days at a time each summer. Could "Hector" or "Illeana" possibly sustain itself as a weak tropical storm making landfall?

I don't think so. SSTs drop quickly north of 20N, and it seems unlikely that any TC would be able to maintain deep convection north of about 25N. The EPAC isn't like the Atlantic, where with the right thermodynamic conditions a TC/STC can survive with SSTs below 25C.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1224 Postby NDG » Sun Jul 29, 2018 8:51 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
CaliforniaResident wrote:
AdamFirst wrote:Since the Atlantic basin is dead as a doornail, how about the (rapidly weakening) tropical storm that's off the coast of Southern California in 300 hours?

https://i.imgur.com/KluZtF5.png


SST off the San Diego coast hit 79F this afternoon. Ever since the PDO flipped to warm, mid to upper 70s SST occur several times each summer. When we were in a cold PDO, the SST had a hard time breaking 70F and would only do so for a few days at a time each summer. Could "Hector" or "Illeana" possibly sustain itself as a weak tropical storm making landfall?

I don't think so. SSTs drop quickly north of 20N, and it seems unlikely that any TC would be able to maintain deep convection north of about 25N. The EPAC isn't like the Atlantic, where with the right thermodynamic conditions a TC/STC can survive with SSTs below 25C.


I agree, there's is no way a possible system to the west of Baja can survive its track towards California as a tropical system, in southern California surf temps might be in the mid to uppers 70s but offshore SSTs in the 60s go all the way down to the 26th latitude, way too cold for tropical systems.

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1225 Postby Alyono » Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:03 am

0Z GFS actually has a TD/weak TS in the NW Gulf at day 15/16
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1226 Postby ava_ati » Mon Jul 30, 2018 7:51 am

Not seeing the TD/TS in the Gulf but there is a pretty healthy looking wave that comes off Africa Aug 14
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1227 Postby Alyono » Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:00 am

ava_ati wrote:Not seeing the TD/TS in the Gulf but there is a pretty healthy looking wave that comes off Africa Aug 14


that's because 6Z quickly dropped it
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1228 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 31, 2018 12:29 pm

Yikes,GFS down to #4 behind Euro,UKMET and CMC.

@RyanMaue
Whoa -- after a slight dip, ECMWF uncorked even higher skill levels.

GFS remains the 4th place model -- out of top 4.


 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1024341993957277696


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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1229 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Tue Jul 31, 2018 2:09 pm

Not a click nor a tick.

I like it. :sun:

Lets hope it stays this way till november
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1230 Postby Visioen » Wed Aug 01, 2018 1:47 pm

I can't believe it. It is actually showing something.

'Enjoy' it while you can, next run it will probably be gone.

Image

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1231 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Aug 01, 2018 1:53 pm

Visioen wrote:I can't believe it. It is actually showing something.

'Enjoy' it while you can, next run it will probably be gone.

https://i.imgur.com/02Qxjwe.gif

https://i.imgur.com/LsDVdFS.gif


Yeah you’re right, 16 days from now.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1232 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:02 pm

Visioen wrote:I can't believe it. It is actually showing something.

'Enjoy' it while you can, next run it will probably be gone.


Could be an indicator of the true beginning of peak season though. I guess we'll see in about 2 weeks.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1233 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 02, 2018 2:02 pm

12z ECMWF has a strong Tropical Wave emerging West Africa on August 12th. Let's see if next runs still has it or not.

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1234 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 02, 2018 3:11 pm

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1235 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:57 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z ECMWF has a strong Tropical Wave emerging West Africa on August 12th. Let's see if next runs still has it or not.

Image


It agrees with the 12zgfs but this may be something to watch if it’s still on the models a few days from now and may bear watching around 50w if still there
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1236 Postby Visioen » Fri Aug 03, 2018 1:10 am

In the meantime, this is the GFS for the E-Pac. Just look at it going. :double:

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1237 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 03, 2018 6:46 am

@MJVentrice
ECMWF model seeing a chance for our first Cape Verde storm of 2018 to take place sometime between 8/13-8/20. This track is a bit far north for a typical system. Suggests if a storm tries to spin up, it could be quick off
Africa, tho may also be quick to spin down.


 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1025342237906010114


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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1238 Postby blp » Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:36 am

00z Euro continues to show the wave and stronger. That's three runs in a row. The CMC is now also onboard but much more broad. So GFS, Euro and CMC have this now. The GFS predicts a short life in the extra long range due to a hostile environment of strong dry air. If it slips further south and stays away from dryer air could become a sleeper.

I am surprised the Euro has picked up on it so quickly and is stronger than the GFS and CMC. Let's see what it does once it gets into the more hostile area.

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1239 Postby Dylan » Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:47 am

blp wrote:00z Euro continues to show the wave and stronger. That's three runs in a row. The CMC is now also onboard but much more broad. So GFS, Euro and CMC have this now. The GFS predicts a short life in the extra long range due to a hostile environment of strong dry air. If it slips further south and stays away from dryer air could become a sleeper.

I am surprised the Euro has picked up on it so quickly and is stronger than the GFS and CMC. Let's see what it does once it gets into the more hostile area.



Nearly void of convection by the time it reaches the Cape Verde Islands. Very likely due to SST's are in the 23-25C range, which is well below normal for August in the eastern MDR.

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1240 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Aug 03, 2018 10:18 am

The only way it’ll survive is if it comes off Africa at 10N or south and stays at that low latitude until 50W. That’s asking for a lot though since these waves have seem to be coming off Africa above 10N.
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