2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1281 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 10, 2018 4:32 am

GFS spins up a surface low in the ITCZ in 30 hrs at 10N 37W.
Look like it'll move into warm water.

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1282 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:16 am

The ECMWF has something now as well, just 48 hours from now:

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1283 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 10, 2018 2:16 pm

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1284 Postby Twisted-core » Sun Aug 12, 2018 3:16 am

Bit of interest in a fish latter on thinks ec on the run. Note the other small energy that shoots off towards the gom.

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https://imgur.com/aQLRTOE
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1285 Postby Dylan » Sun Aug 12, 2018 5:44 am

Support of the European fish storm is non-existent from both the EPS and GEFS members.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1286 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:49 pm

GEM now has something about but further east of the Euro:

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1287 Postby Dylan » Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:44 pm

A couple of EPS ensemble members are hinting at some Cape Verde action after day 10.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1288 Postby Hammy » Sun Aug 12, 2018 5:14 pm

Dylan wrote:A couple of EPS ensemble members are hinting at some Cape Verde action after day 10.


Is that with the strong flow coming off Africa at the end of the run? Or is that the wave after?
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1289 Postby Nimbus » Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:10 pm

Cape Verde season will be in full swing in 10 days

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1290 Postby Hammy » Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:39 pm

Image

GFS showing a nice moisture surge near the end of the run.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1291 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:12 pm

Hammy wrote:https://i.imgur.com/DbWv8Ak.png

GFS showing a nice moisture surge near the end of the run.


Yep and GEFS surface pressure anomalies in the deep MDR are low as well in the long-range when they have been high all season so far. Things could be starting to align for some Cape Verde activity towards end of this month as climo suggests:

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1292 Postby Twisted-core » Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:11 pm

Image
https://imgur.com/ehExsxE
On the plot it appears sst is still on the anonymously cool side across the EQ mdr region.
Last edited by Twisted-core on Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1293 Postby StrongWind » Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:27 pm

Sep 8th, for example, shows the peak for Majors. Is the graph showing this as the date of storm genisys, the date it became a major, or the # of majors on this particular date?

Nimbus wrote:Cape Verde season will be in full swing in 10 days

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1294 Postby LarryWx » Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:36 pm

StrongWind wrote:Sep 8th, for example, shows the peak for Majors. Is the graph showing this as the date of storm genisys, the date it became a major, or the # of majors on this particular date?

Nimbus wrote:Cape Verde season will be in full swing in 10 days

Image


I’m almost sure it is # of majors in existence on each date.

Edit: Upon further thought, that has to be what it is. It certainly isn’t # of geneses because otherwise this would be saying there’s, for example, about an average of one TS genesis per year on Sept. 11, which is way higher than reality.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1295 Postby Hammy » Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:13 am

GFS showing a potential precursor system at the end of the latest run .

Image
Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1297 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:38 pm

Interesting that UKMET is initializing a wave at 45W/10N but the Euro and GFS don't see anything for now. I wonder if that was the same one that came off Africa a couple of days ago?
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1298 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:34 am

AutoPenalti wrote:Interesting that UKMET is initializing a wave at 45W/10N but the Euro and GFS don't see anything for now. I wonder if that was the same one that came off Africa a couple of days ago?


That wave moved off the coast of Africa on August 9th. It has a close to zero percent chance of developing. Interesting that none of the models develops even a phantom storm over the next week or two (not counting that non-tropical low way up north).

Here's an archived TPW shot of the wave moving off Africa on the 9th:
ftp://ftp.ssec.wisc.edu/pub/mtpw2/images/tpw_nrl_colors/natl/201808/comp20180809.130000_tpw.png
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1299 Postby SoupBone » Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:14 pm

This place and these threads are so eerily quiet. Hard to believe it's the middle of August. :roll:
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1300 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:37 pm

SoupBone wrote:This place and these threads are so eerily quiet. Hard to believe it's the middle of August. :roll:


Could be totally different 15 days from now, a big "could be", if the Euro's H20 velocity forecast is correct.
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