2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#21 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:27 pm

ECMWF will have ocean coupling as part of the upgrade this model will go thru soon.

Ocean coupling is implemented by allowing different variables in the ocean, wave and atmospheric models to affect each other.

These include surface roughness from the wave model, sea-surface temperatures and surface currents from the ocean model and winds and heat fluxes from the atmospheric model.

Coupling is already operational for ECMWF’s ensemble forecasts (ENS, horizontal resolution of 18 km) and is due to be extended to high-resolution forecasts (HRES, horizontal resolution of 9 km) in the next upgrade of ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System (IFS).


https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-ce ... -forecasts
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#22 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:04 pm

Umm,Maybe Subtropical Alberto?

@RyanMaue
GFS 12z develops a weak but definite subtropical storm around 30°N latitude. Several days away but the pattern fits & water is plenty warm for type of energetics necessary for a "warm core" transition.


 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/951510624034611200


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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#23 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:50 pm

Lets all hope for a full-blown El Niño this year. The record warm Atlantic SST's and the models picking up on quick phantom spin-ups like this on the 12z GFS along with the low off Florida concern me.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#24 Postby NotSparta » Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:07 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Lets all hope for a full-blown El Niño this year. The record warm Atlantic SST's and the models picking up on quick phantom spin-ups like this on the 12z GFS along with the low off Florida concern me.


Yeah I think a 2006 style El Nino is the best we can get (will take time to come down from a near moderate Nina, leading to an average season (warmer SSTs than 2006)

It's unlikely that we have a repeat of this year, but if another weak Nina or cool neutral sets up, watch out
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#25 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:13 pm

NotSparta wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Lets all hope for a full-blown El Niño this year. The record warm Atlantic SST's and the models picking up on quick phantom spin-ups like this on the 12z GFS along with the low off Florida concern me.


Yeah I think a 2006 style El Nino is the best we can get (will take time to come down from a near moderate Nina, leading to an average season (warmer SSTs than 2006)

It's unlikely that we have a repeat of this year, but if another weak Nina or cool neutral sets up, watch out

2017 was a neutral season the La Niña didn't even get going until just last month I believe. Neutral seasons are the worst, they usually favor higher impacts too, take 2005 for example it was neutral.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#26 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 27, 2018 8:17 pm

Levi Cowan models section for Tropical Cyclone soundings has new tool for shear to look at.Check it out.

@TropicalTidbits
Few updates to TC soundings. Parameter list now includes shear vector & deep-layer steering arrows. A "max shear" metric has been added, defined as max shear vector from any layer of at least 100mb depth between 850mb & 150mb. Hodograph now in hPa for easy shear interpretation.


Image

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/957419214591217664


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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#27 Postby NotSparta » Sun Jan 28, 2018 3:45 pm

GFS keeps making a CATL cyclone into an STC in the near term

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#28 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 29, 2018 8:10 pm

More new tools in the Levi Cowan section of models,this time for HWRF.

@TropicalTidbits
Website update: Soundings are now available for HWRF, both nest and parent, because you know you've always wanted to poke around inside an eyewall!

The new code also means you can measure things like eye diameter using *shift + click & drag*

Enjoy.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... model=hwrf


 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/958136087179878401


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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#29 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:55 am

Looks like the new FV3GFS after the upcomming upgrade will be a very different version from the current one and will be at the top with ECMWF on performance.

http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa- ... er-upgrade

@EricBlake12
The nuts and bolts of the FV3GFS are fascinating- big changes from the current GFS


Image

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/973567252497920000




@EricBlake12
Quite an intensity improvement noted on the FV3 tests- much better than the current GFS but lags HWRF


Image

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/973568870991753216




@EricBlake12
The FV3 did well for Harvey intensification in comparison to the GFS


Image

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/973568099243962368


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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#30 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 15, 2018 11:50 am

Levi Cowan continues to add more tools to the tropical areas in his site.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

@TropicalTidbits
Added a couple new cross section types today. Trying to round out the suite of tools for 3D analysis of the atmosphere. Check 'em out!

Here's a jet core and a tropical cyclone:


Image

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/973718776586932225


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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#31 Postby gatorcane » Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:11 pm

Looks like the past two runs of the ECMWF develop some surface low in the South-Central Gulf at the base of an upper trough swinging through the Southern US that looks to have some subtropical characteristics. Here is how the 12Z run ends at 10 days as it moves NE towards Florida:

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#32 Postby Weather150 » Sun Mar 25, 2018 1:54 pm

gatorcane wrote:Looks like the past two runs of the ECMWF develop some surface low in the South-Central Gulf at the base of an upper trough swinging through the Southern US that looks to have some subtropical characteristics. Here is how the 12Z run ends at 10 days as it moves NE towards Florida:

Image

Models aren't enthusiastic with that anymore.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#33 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 28, 2018 2:03 pm

Those who may be wondering what is going on with ECMWF in the 12z run of March 28 that is delayed,here is an explanation.

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#34 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:51 pm

cycloneye wrote:Those who may be wondering what is going on with ECMWF in the 12z run of March 28 that is delayed,here is an explanation.

Image


12z ECMWF run is up.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#35 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 29, 2018 8:22 am

For those who like to follow the spaghetti,here is a good advice.

@EricBlake12
People love to post spaghetti models on invests - remember those plots are much less accurate than when it is tropical cyclone, and you are only seeing a fraction of the guidance #nhc2018


Image

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/979338636285108225


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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#36 Postby NDG » Thu Mar 29, 2018 12:41 pm

I am sure this will take many by surprise but I thought it did really well in the Atlantic last year in the Atlantic but I am sure conditions favored that usually aggressive model :D

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/979380179968692225




Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#37 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:34 pm

Yeah it did really well with Harvey.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#38 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 10, 2018 3:02 pm

12z April 10.

@TropicalTidbits
The NCEP data server has been having issues today, resulting in delayed or incomplete model runs for the GFS, NAM, HRRR, and all other NCEP models. Apologies for the inconvenience.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#39 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:27 am

Well I dont want to make a new thread .. but someone else can.. but has no one else noticed the tropical low with sheared convection sitting east of the bahamas the last 24 hours.. I have seen worse looking TS.. lol
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#40 Postby NotSparta » Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:38 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Well I dont want to make a new thread .. but someone else can.. but has no one else noticed the tropical low with sheared convection sitting east of the bahamas the last 24 hours.. I have seen worse looking TS.. lol




Image

not half bad, but it gets swept away soon
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