2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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SFLcane
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2061 Postby SFLcane » Sun Sep 30, 2018 2:43 pm

Shear, shear and more shear

The Caribbean as a whole has been extremely hostile all season long.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2062 Postby AJC3 » Sun Sep 30, 2018 2:50 pm

LarryWx wrote:I think there is enough of a threat now to consider starting a new thread addressing early Oct Caribbean potential TC so it doesn’t clutter up this thread. I mean we don’t even have a discussion thread for this yet as the remnants of Kirk thread may not be the best place to discuss it. Opinions?


Done!

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120008
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2063 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:50 am

06Z GFS
MDR spin up +66 hrs

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will suplant old GFS by late January}

#2064 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 02, 2018 12:00 pm

Here is the news of FV3 taking over from the old GFS by the 24th of January.See details at link below.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/Alic ... ey/fv3gfs/
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January}

#2065 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 02, 2018 12:12 pm

A good question by Levi Cowan about the Ensembles.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1047159956879953926


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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)

#2066 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:53 pm

Seems as though some of the models are developing another system in the Western Caribbean late between 8 to 10 days the models are the Euro, FV3 GFS and Canadian
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)

#2067 Postby toad strangler » Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:10 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Seems as though some of the models are developing another system in the Western Caribbean late between 8 to 10 days the models are the Euro, FV3 GFS and Canadian


This could turn out to be that classic October track.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)

#2068 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:36 pm

Yep the 12z Euro has a slowly organizing 1009mb area of low pressure just south of Jamaica in 10 days.

Just looking at the 500mb pattern though it would likely take a similar track across eastern Cuba as earlier thoughts on track for the current Caribbean area.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)

#2069 Postby blp » Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:45 pm

CMC has it as well. So FV3, Euro and CMC so far.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)

#2070 Postby toad strangler » Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:53 pm

12z Euro still showing another system from the S Caribbean late in the run
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)

#2071 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:58 pm

Third Euro run in a row so it maybe worth watching. Ends with a quickly organizing 999mb low drifting slowly west. The TW at 30W, 10N maybe the catalyst.

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)

#2072 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:12 pm

Looks like a shortwave heading through the Central US to breakdown the ridge and possibly allow it to move north:

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)

#2073 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:20 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Third Euro run in a row so it maybe worth watching. Ends with a quickly organizing 999mb low drifting slowly west. The TW at 30W, 10N maybe the catalyst.

https://preview.ibb.co/cx4TRz/ecmwf_mslpa_watl_11.png


The GFS FV3 has this feature make landfall near Ft Myers at 294 but much weaker so it seems like we’re coming to some kind of model support for development again in the western Caribbean around day 8
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)

#2074 Postby ballred » Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:01 pm

Can we start a discussion regarding this possible storm to keep it clear from the models thread?
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)

#2075 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:12 pm

Good Euro ensembles' support for a possible second Caribbean system in the 7-14 day range.

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)

#2076 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:15 pm

Just one problem thankfully it’s extremely hostile from Africa throughout the entire Caribbean. I don’t buy the euro
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)

#2077 Postby toad strangler » Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:18 pm

SFLcane wrote:Just one problem thankfully it’s extremely hostile from Africa throughout the entire Caribbean. I don’t buy the euro


Not that I trust shear forecasts 10 days out but it don't look too shabby on the GFS at least. Which does not have the system ATM.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)

#2078 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:19 pm

Shear had been ripping all year especially eastern Caribbean no reason why that would change.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)

#2079 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:51 pm

SFLcane wrote:Shear had been ripping all year especially eastern Caribbean no reason why that would change.


But I don’t recall the models showing anything in the Caribbean either until now. Seems the conditions might improve and October is prime time for Caribbean.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)

#2080 Postby AJC3 » Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:35 pm

ballred wrote:Can we start a discussion regarding this possible storm to keep it clear from the models thread?



No. This is exactly the place to discuss model-advertised systems in the extended range. Starting "modelstorm" threads is expressly forbidden when there isn't even an incipient disturbance yet. Read the pinned thread above if you have any questions about this.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109634
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