2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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toad strangler
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)

#2081 Postby toad strangler » Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:37 pm

18z GFS says LOL NO
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)

#2082 Postby chaser1 » Sat Oct 06, 2018 2:02 am

Of course, just 18 hours ago the GFS didn't know 91L even existed LOL. Now however, it has a borderline T.S. about to from out of it. I don't think i'd put a world of stock in the GFS. It's been off and on. For what it's worth, the GFS DOES show a W. Caribbean deep 850 mb signature in the longer range; It just doesn't do well depicting where exactly genesis may occur. On another note, the 0Z EURO is more bullish with a second system developing in the W. Caribbean starting at about 192 hrs
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2083 Postby SFLcane » Sat Oct 06, 2018 7:22 am

So much for that Caribbean system euro has all but dropped it just shows a weak low heading into CA.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2084 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 06, 2018 7:29 am

Weaker yes but into Central America no looking at that setup with the trough digging:

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2085 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 06, 2018 7:41 am

SFLcane wrote:So much for that Caribbean system euro has all but dropped it just shows a weak low heading into CA.

What are you talking about? It still has it on the 00z run although weaker, but it looks to be gradually getting better organized by day 10.

There is still some EPS support at 00z, although weaker. :darrow:

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2086 Postby toad strangler » Sat Oct 06, 2018 7:56 am

gatorcane wrote:Weaker yes but into Central America no looking at that setup with the trough digging:

https://i.postimg.cc/fyGfrtvz/ecmwf_z500a_Norm_watl_11.png


This. A trough like that can easily scoop it up and fling him or her to the N and NE. That said, it’s 240 hours but that set up is screaming climo.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2087 Postby SFLcane » Sat Oct 06, 2018 9:00 am

Indeed climo track there but this year the Caribbean has been dominated by wind shear from developing El Niño. I don’t put to much stock even in the long range euro.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2088 Postby toad strangler » Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:29 am

JB talking about 10/15 to 10/20 for possible 2nd system

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2089 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:58 am

12z Canadian has a weak TS maybe in the NW Caribbean at 240hrs so mabye the Euro isnt so crazy afterall? What do u guys think?

Image


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2090 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:45 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:12z Canadian has a weak TS maybe in the NW Caribbean at 240hrs so mabye the Euro isnt so crazy afterall? What do u guys think?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181006/7d4a52f92dc9b549115e2a7cc3312bcc.png

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Looks like a moderate-strong T.S. just looking at the 850mb vorticity. Even the 12z GFS was just a little more enthusiastic showing a weak low hanging around Cuba beyond days 6-7.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2091 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:22 pm

Caribbean storm #2 on the EPS:

Image
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Re: RE: Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2092 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:29 pm

gatorcane wrote:Caribbean storm #2 on the EPS:

Image
October is prime time for florida, two hits in october isn't a crazy scenario
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2093 Postby blp » Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:44 pm

The EPS continue be very bullish in the long range on system #2.

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2094 Postby blp » Sun Oct 07, 2018 12:02 am

Looks like GFS starting to bite. Does do much with it but starting to show the vortcity.

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2095 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 07, 2018 4:27 am

This has no place to go but into CA on the 00z Euro
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2096 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Oct 07, 2018 4:39 am

Still 8-10 days out so a lot will change, though hopefully it changes for the better and not worse.

Could be looking at tracks similar to Matthew and Richard of 2010 per the latest 00z Euro.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2097 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 07, 2018 7:59 am

toad strangler wrote:This has no place to go but into CA on the 00z Euro


Yep just not overly concerned about this 00z models drive this into CA.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2098 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 07, 2018 12:11 pm

CMC towards Florida:

Image

00Z EPS with a break in the ridge just like the CMC which would pull a deeper system north:

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2099 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 07, 2018 12:51 pm

IF something developes that break in the ridge would be a problem.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2100 Postby CourierPR » Sun Oct 07, 2018 1:00 pm

[quote="gatorcane"]CMC towards Florida:

00Z EPS with a break in the ridge just like the CMC which would pull a deeper system north:

Gatorcane, I see the date on your graphic is 10/17. When would new development begin in the Caribbean?
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