2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2101 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 07, 2018 1:46 pm

12 euro again into CA
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2102 Postby blp » Sun Oct 07, 2018 2:07 pm

SFLcane wrote:12 euro again into CA


Look again. Over the water further north. Dangerous spot with big weakness north of it.

6 runs in row showing development.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2103 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 07, 2018 2:11 pm

SFLcane wrote:12 euro again into CA


Disagree. Look at 500mb. Verbatim this hits a wall and moves N and then NE. Once again, that’s a classic climo setup. But alas, it’s 10 days out.

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2104 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 07, 2018 2:24 pm

Talking about the Eastern Atlantic wave.

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1049013826484690945


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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2105 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 07, 2018 2:27 pm

Indeed quite the dangerous setup as the Canadian shows which wave exactly is this coming from? There is a rather potent one just of the African coast.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2106 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 07, 2018 4:57 pm

Holy 12z eps has a barrage of hurricanes at FL..
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2107 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sun Oct 07, 2018 5:39 pm

SFLcane wrote:Holy 12z eps has a barrage of hurricanes at FL..

Graphic?
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2108 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 07, 2018 6:20 pm

Image

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2109 Postby blp » Sun Oct 07, 2018 7:13 pm

18z FV3 closes the second storm over S.Fla in 240hr. Looks like it's following the same start like Michael it started further North and East and then moved more West. This has my attention because FV3 and the Euro have the highest resolution and the CMC is also onboard and was pretty good with Michael.

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2110 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 07, 2018 9:47 pm

Again were is this wave the models are developing in the caribbean? It certainly is not the eastern most wave near africa that appears will recurve quickly into the open atlantic.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2111 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:48 am

Euro keeps it weak and continues to send whatever developes into Central America. Hopefully after Michael the season is just about over.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2112 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:31 am

SFLcane wrote:Euro keeps it weak and continues to send whatever developes into Central America. Hopefully after Michael the season is just about over.

Even the 00z EPS Ensembles have trended weaker and west through day 10.

Btw, do you happen to have any of those longer range spaghetti plots for the 00z ensembles that you posted the last few days?
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2113 Postby robbielyn » Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:25 am

surely upwelling of GOM from Michael would limit anything from really getting strong?!!
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2114 Postby toad strangler » Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:32 am

robbielyn wrote:surely upwelling of GOM from Michael would limit anything from really getting strong?!!


It won't matter if whatever pops buries itself in CA :lol:
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2115 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:11 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Euro keeps it weak and continues to send whatever developes into Central America. Hopefully after Michael the season is just about over.

Even the 00z EPS Ensembles have trended weaker and west through day 10.

Btw, do you happen to have any of those longer range spaghetti plots for the 00z ensembles that you posted the last few days?


Sure thing.. https://lab.weathermodels.com/
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2116 Postby blp » Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:33 am

NAVGEM has this now but week because it only goes out to 180. So FV3, Euro, CMC and Icon are showing development.

Image
Last edited by blp on Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2117 Postby blp » Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:36 am

FV3 with its strongest run. I am not going past 10 days for now but that is a very dangerous location.

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2118 Postby blp » Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:42 am

SFLcane wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Euro keeps it weak and continues to send whatever developes into Central America. Hopefully after Michael the season is just about over.

Even the 00z EPS Ensembles have trended weaker and west through day 10.

Btw, do you happen to have any of those longer range spaghetti plots for the 00z ensembles that you posted the last few days?


Sure thing.. https://lab.weathermodels.com/


Even though the OPS is over CA. The ensembles are still over the W. Caribbean primarily.

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2119 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:55 am

blp wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Even the 00z EPS Ensembles have trended weaker and west through day 10.

Btw, do you happen to have any of those longer range spaghetti plots for the 00z ensembles that you posted the last few days?


Sure thing.. https://lab.weathermodels.com/


Even though the OPS is over CA. The ensembles are still over the W. Caribbean primarily.

https://image.ibb.co/crJ63p/eps_mslp_rings_carib_252.png

But even they have trended west. Yesterday they were all over Florida or close to it.

Also, that FV-3 GFS location is pretty close to where Michael is now.
:double:
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2120 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:58 am

Could it be that the Euro is being left biased again? I guess we’ll have to wait and find out.
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