2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2141 Postby toad strangler » Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:27 pm

SFLcane wrote:Check that----> All EPS members head into CA.


That's a pretty strong CA signal :lol:
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2142 Postby ballred » Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:49 pm

SFLcane wrote:Check that----> All EPS members head into CA.


I could work with that! :D
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2143 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:05 pm

The Euro and it’s ensembles are locking in on a CA landfall with this future area next week. With a +NAO this will likely allow a pretty decent ridge to park itself over the Eastern U.S. preventing a threat to Florida or the Gulf Coast.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2144 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:47 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:The Euro and it’s ensembles are locking in on a CA landfall with this future area next week. With a +NAO this will likely allow a pretty decent ridge to park itself over the Eastern U.S. preventing a threat to Florida or the Gulf Coast.


But the models also show a trough that could pick this up, and the current ridge didn't stop Michael from doing just that. Remember, this is still far out and could definitely change.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2145 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:18 pm

It’s easy to forget how bad these models can be in the medium to long-range. For example here is what the 00Z Friday Oct 5 GFS showed for Michael...not too bad on track and horrific on intensity:

Image

Oh and here is the Euro for Oct 2nd. Just a whee bit off wouldn’t you say?

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2146 Postby WeatherHoon » Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:14 am

Seems to me that this will be dependent upon trough timing.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2147 Postby Ritzcraker » Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:34 am

GFS showing a possible area of low pressure at hour 312 coming in from the SW portion of the Gulf of Mexico heading NE... Although it is wayyy out in fantasy land so take with a grain of salt.

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2148 Postby otowntiger » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:41 am

Yeah not seeing anything that would amount to much or much of anything. Beginning to think Michael will be the last big hurrah of the season.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2149 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:15 am

Some decent model consensus this morning on something else developing in the caribbean but models are still driving it into central america. Thankfully
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2150 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:33 am

I do not see any models taking this into the GOM infact all drive it straight into Central America. Overnight 00z EPS shows just that. A few members swing it back towards FL after moving over the BOC.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1049631828917846017


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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2151 Postby blp » Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:54 am

SFLcane wrote:I do not see any models taking this into the GOM infact all drive it straight into Central America. Overnight 00z EPS shows just that. A few members swing it back towards FL after moving over the BOC.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1049631828917846017


The models have swung more North overnight through 180hrs which is what I suspected would happen considering how far we are out in the range. Now most keep it over water longer into the W. Carribean and then approaching the Yucatan. Then most hint at a scenario where it could fester in the BOC to be picked up by the next trough. I think this is real possibility.

So far the Navgem, Euro, CMC, FV3, Icon all show development. GFS hints at the vorticity but keeps it weak. This looks like a rerun of Michael in the early runs with those group of models showing development versus the GFS and we know how that played out.

FV3 has really ramped this up per the 06z.

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2152 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:04 am

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2153 Postby blp » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:04 am

The Ukmet looks to be onboard as well with a 1008 Low in the same area as the rest of the models in 144hrs.

Image

Another view:
Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2154 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:05 am

I for one still don't understand what exactly the models are developing in the caribbean.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2155 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:06 am

Actually the EPS consensus did nudge a bit north in the overnight run. You also have a few now swing it near the Cayman Islands, through western Cuba on its way to South Florida.

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2156 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:07 am

SFLcane wrote:I for one still don't understand what exactly the models are developing in the caribbean.

I believe it was a wave that was at 30-35W last week. I don’t know where it is now, but it must be one of those sleeper waves.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2157 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:14 am

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2158 Postby otowntiger » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:45 am

So is this a significant change from what we've seen previously with these models? It would appear that there is more support for something potentially a little more threatening than what we've beenb seeing so far, if I'm reading this right?
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2159 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:46 am

otowntiger wrote:
So is this a significant change from what we've seen previously with these models? It would appear that there is more support for something threatening than what we've beenb seeing so far, if I'm reading this right?


There is a pretty strong signal from the models BUT were it ends up going who knows.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2160 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:57 am

There is a trough creating a weakness over the Gulf and Florida but the system is not strong enough on this run to get pulled into it:

Image
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