2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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toad strangler
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2161 Postby toad strangler » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:58 am

otowntiger wrote:Yeah not seeing anything that would amount to much or much of anything. Beginning to think Michael will be the last big hurrah of the season.


What are you talking about? All kinds of signals are there. That doesn't mean it's coming to FL obviously but can you explain what you are NOT seeing?
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2162 Postby otowntiger » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:19 am

toad strangler wrote:
otowntiger wrote:Yeah not seeing anything that would amount to much or much of anything. Beginning to think Michael will be the last big hurrah of the season.


What are you talking about? All kinds of signals are there. That doesn't mean it's coming to FL obviously but can you explain what you are NOT seeing?
Well as of last night, I saw only little development in WCAB and what was being portrayed was getting buried in CA. This morning, trends have changed, obviously.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2163 Postby toad strangler » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:45 am

otowntiger wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
otowntiger wrote:Yeah not seeing anything that would amount to much or much of anything. Beginning to think Michael will be the last big hurrah of the season.


What are you talking about? All kinds of signals are there. That doesn't mean it's coming to FL obviously but can you explain what you are NOT seeing?
Well as of last night, I saw only little development in WCAB and what was being portrayed was getting buried in CA. This morning, trends have changed, obviously.


Yes, Euro has been burying it. The GFS not as robust but burying also. Late yesterday even the Euro ensembles were burying it across the board. So we wait and see. But the season isn't over at this second in time.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2164 Postby otowntiger » Tue Oct 09, 2018 10:15 am

toad strangler wrote:
otowntiger wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
What are you talking about? All kinds of signals are there. That doesn't mean it's coming to FL obviously but can you explain what you are NOT seeing?
Well as of last night, I saw only little development in WCAB and what was being portrayed was getting buried in CA. This morning, trends have changed, obviously.


Yes, Euro has been burying it. The GFS not as robust but burying also. Late yesterday even the Euro ensembles were burying it across the board. So we wait and see. But the season isn't over at this second in time.
Yep, the season isn't over, and long range models can have wide swings in development as we all know. :wink:
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2165 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:40 pm

Note to the peeps= There is a new thread for the Caribbean area that the models are showing with some development so you can go there to post the model runs.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120050&p=2720580#p2720580
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2166 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:22 pm

The GFS both FV3 and old have yet a third cyclone in the SW Caribbean: :double:

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2167 Postby blp » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:38 pm

Navgem says what Ridge? I can't laugh too much it did well with Michael show the Panhandle early on when the GFS and Euro were lost.

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2168 Postby Ken711 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:40 pm

blp wrote:Navgem says what Ridge? I can't laugh too much it did well with Michael show the Panhandle early on when the GFS and Euro were lost.

https://image.ibb.co/dsn5ip/nvg10_sfc10m_180_go_mex.gif


That's true the NAVGEM was onto something early at least with Michael.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2169 Postby cjrciadt » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:41 pm

Trami sized eye cane off SFL in under ten days? Yeah sure why not? :roll: :spam: :x
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2170 Postby toad strangler » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:42 pm

Yes the NAVGEM gets props with Michael. Unquestionably. I don’t care if you think Blind Squirrel / Nut. Props.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2171 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:24 pm

gatorcane wrote:The GFS both FV3 and old have yet a third cyclone in the SW Caribbean: :double:

https://i.postimg.cc/j2mzVGgN/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_watl_41.png


Take long range with a hefty grain of salt. As we get into late October, I believe the models are likely to have a spooky ghost. :cheesy:
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2172 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:31 pm

FV3 GFS with a strong hurricane into Central America in the long-range:

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2173 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:59 pm

gatorcane wrote:FV3 GFS with a strong hurricane into Central America in the long-range:

https://i.postimg.cc/G38VY0W1/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_watl_47.png

Looks like this develops an area from the monsoon trough combined with the tropical wave currently SE of Nadine just off the coast of Africa
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2174 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:53 am

gatorcane wrote:FV3 GFS with a strong hurricane into Central America in the long-range:

https://i.postimg.cc/G38VY0W1/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_watl_47.png
look at that high sitting over the carolinas, are we in august, lol...lets see if this solution holds up
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2175 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Oct 14, 2018 11:48 am

12z Canadian has a strong TS in the NW Caribbean

Image


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2176 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Oct 14, 2018 12:34 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:12z Canadian has a strong TS in the NW Caribbean

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181014/8f8357f606bfa0d6094988bb981fd70c.png


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The 12z GFS has an area too at day 10 deep in the SW Caribbean but then moves it directly NW into CA before shooting it off NE into a approaching deep trough. Worth watching!
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2177 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Oct 14, 2018 1:59 pm

:uarrow: 12z Euro buries the same area into Panama in 8-10 days.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2178 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 14, 2018 3:45 pm

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: 12z Euro buries the same area into Panama in 8-10 days.


Some vorticity in the SW Caribbean:

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2179 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Oct 14, 2018 7:37 pm

gatorcane wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: 12z Euro buries the same area into Panama in 8-10 days.


Some vorticity in the SW Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/6qMY6LSR/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-11.png

The 18zGFS shows this feature heading to Florida at 324 but as we all know it’s fantasyland beyond 120 hrs
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2180 Postby lovingseason2013 » Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:06 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: 12z Euro buries the same area into Panama in 8-10 days.


Some vorticity in the SW Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/6qMY6LSR/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-11.png

The 18zGFS shows this feature heading to Florida at 324 but as we all know it’s fantasyland beyond 120 hrs


I would love to be able to see these model runs, everyone talks about the runs, but never shows the animation of them, where can I go to see them, or maybe even better, post them here. Thanks!
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