2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2181 Postby toad strangler » Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:30 am

I see the models finally break this ridge down around the 8 to 10 day mark.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2182 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:43 am

lovingseason2013 wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
Some vorticity in the SW Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/6qMY6LSR/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-11.png

The 18zGFS shows this feature heading to Florida at 324 but as we all know it’s fantasyland beyond 120 hrs


I would love to be able to see these model runs, everyone talks about the runs, but never shows the animation of them, where can I go to see them, or maybe even better, post them here. Thanks!


You can see the GFS and other model animations at www.tropicaltidbits.com


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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2183 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:26 am

lovingseason2013 wrote:I would love to be able to see these model runs, everyone talks about the runs, but never shows the animation of them, where can I go to see them, or maybe even better, post them here. Thanks!



You can see them ove ron Tropical Tidbits.

GFS latest run is here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z850_vort

You can use that page to select the various models. Model watching is interesting to those of us who enjoy it but not something you should ever make plans around or be overly concerned about. :)
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2184 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:29 am

toad strangler wrote:I see the models finally break this ridge down around the 8 to 10 day mark.


Yeah I noticed this too. I hope and pray that we are FINALLY seeing an end to the seemingly ever present +NAO and FINALLY get Autumn started in this part of the world. Sick of the heat!
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2185 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:43 am

Gfs several runs in a row shows a low forming in the gulf and moving into the Florida Peninsula At 200 hours to 216 hours. I’m not sure if it is baroclinic or tropical.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/6HKERAmgfoiw8Vfy7
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2186 Postby toad strangler » Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:49 am

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Gfs several runs in a row shows a low forming in the gulf and moving into the Florida Peninsula At 200 hours to 216 hours. I’m not sure if it is baroclinic or tropical.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/6HKERAmgfoiw8Vfy7


Pretty sure that the GFS doesn't know either :P
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2187 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:11 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Gfs several runs in a row shows a low forming in the gulf and moving into the Florida Peninsula At 200 hours to 216 hours. I’m not sure if it is baroclinic or tropical.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/6HKERAmgfoiw8Vfy7


Gfs seems to have it hanging over Florida for 4 days as a possible slow moving td.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2188 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:12 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
toad strangler wrote:I see the models finally break this ridge down around the 8 to 10 day mark.


Yeah I noticed this too. I hope and pray that we are FINALLY seeing an end to the seemingly ever present +NAO and FINALLY get Autumn started in this part of the world. Sick of the heat!


Is it still hot up that way? Our forecast os 90 everyday this week in palm beach county.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2189 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:04 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
toad strangler wrote:I see the models finally break this ridge down around the 8 to 10 day mark.


Yeah I noticed this too. I hope and pray that we are FINALLY seeing an end to the seemingly ever present +NAO and FINALLY get Autumn started in this part of the world. Sick of the heat!


Is it still hot up that way? Our forecast os 90 everyday this week in palm beach county.


Yes. Still hot up here in Jax..90 degrees currently and it is forecasted to get to 93 degrees tomorrow. We are approaching record levels.
.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2190 Postby Abdullah » Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:35 pm

lovingseason2013 wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
Some vorticity in the SW Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/6qMY6LSR/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-11.png

The 18zGFS shows this feature heading to Florida at 324 but as we all know it’s fantasyland beyond 120 hrs


I would love to be able to see these model runs, everyone talks about the runs, but never shows the animation of them, where can I go to see them, or maybe even better, post them here. Thanks!

The site for most of them is
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models
The rest, simply search up the model name. Or ask here.


When do you all think that cold front will be coming through? I'm down in Extreme South Broward County. If, right now, the current one(that could easily die,) has barely scraped Alabama, imagine how long until it gets here! Look at the NAM.
Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2191 Postby SootyTern » Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:28 pm

Where did you get that graphic of the NAM? I like it but I don't like what it is showing. That cool air.....so close but so far......
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2192 Postby Steve » Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:45 pm

SootyTern wrote:Where did you get that graphic of the NAM? I like it but I don't like what it is showing. That cool air.....so close but so far......


Click on mesoscale models and pick 32km, 12km or 3km
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2193 Postby Abdullah » Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:19 pm

SootyTern wrote:Where did you get that graphic of the NAM? I like it but I don't like what it is showing. That cool air.....so close but so far......

At first, it looks like its getting closer, then the day comes and pushes back about 90% of what has been achieved throughout the night.(exaggeration)


It took a while to get that. First, I downloaded the gif from tropicaltidbits.com (NAM 3 KM)
I then realized it was 5 megabytes too bigfor tinypic.com, and not wanting to have to make an account, I went to ezgif to compress it. It brought me 1 megabyte over the limit, which is 5 megabytes.) So I cropped it. Problem solved!It actually took like 20 minutes to do.
The NAM isn't the best but it's pretty good with temperatures, right?
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2194 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:44 pm

18z GFS is up to something?

Image

Image


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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2195 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:20 pm

GFS up to not much just brings another low into Central America the season is all but over for the United States. It’s been enough please
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2196 Postby toad strangler » Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:54 pm

SFLcane wrote:GFS up to not much just brings another low into Central America the season is all but over for the United States. It’s been enough please


I totally understand the get on your knees and pray for season end posts but IMO they really don’t have much room in a scientific 1st forum. If that is what this is? I don’t know.... I certainly wouldn’t mind this outcome if your roll of the dice turns up double sixes but it just doesn’t do much for sharing of real info when it’s only 10/15.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2197 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:58 am

toad strangler wrote:
SFLcane wrote:GFS up to not much just brings another low into Central America the season is all but over for the United States. It’s been enough please


I totally understand the get on your knees and pray for season end posts but IMO they really don’t have much room in a scientific 1st forum. If that is what this is? I don’t know.... I certainly wouldn’t mind this outcome if your roll of the dice turns up double sixes but it just doesn’t do much for sharing of real info when it’s only 10/15.


Ok we can always watch that baroclinic low pressure system the gfs keeps developing in the gom. Bring me some cooler wx down into FL and I’ll be happy. :wink:
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2198 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:37 am

SFLcane wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
SFLcane wrote:GFS up to not much just brings another low into Central America the season is all but over for the United States. It’s been enough please


I totally understand the get on your knees and pray for season end posts but IMO they really don’t have much room in a scientific 1st forum. If that is what this is? I don’t know.... I certainly wouldn’t mind this outcome if your roll of the dice turns up double sixes but it just doesn’t do much for sharing of real info when it’s only 10/15.


Ok we can always watch that baroclinic low pressure system the gfs keeps developing in the gom. Bring me some cooler wx down into FL and I’ll be happy. :wink:

There are some hints of changes in the weather pattern for Florida, maybe some cooler weather in time for Halloween?
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2199 Postby N2FSU » Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:59 am

GFS and Euro both continue to show some type of development starting in about 9 days off the Texas Coast, moving towards the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend.

Image

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2200 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:51 am

N2FSU wrote:GFS and Euro both continue to show some type of development starting in about 9 days off the Texas Coast, moving towards the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend.

https://imageshack.com/a/img924/4379/LhH6LL.jpg

https://imageshack.com/a/img922/2663/BYofbw.jpg

Looks more like a very sheared frontal low to me. Gulf of Mexico definitely closed for business you’d think and hope after that.
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