2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#61 Postby gatorcane » Sun Apr 29, 2018 4:01 pm

12Z EC with lowering pressure in the Bahamas at 192 hours. Goes on to deepen the low some and sends it north to off the Northeastern US coastline:

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#62 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:39 pm

18z FV3-GFS still develops the system, and the timeframe is moving up:
Image
A mention from the NHC may be in order if it persists on the models for a couple more days.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#63 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:28 pm

Models basically are showing ultimately multiple areas of vorticity spinning around one big broad area of low pressure. Nothing organized.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#64 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 30, 2018 12:42 pm

12z old GFS has it more stronger just north of Bahamas for day 6.

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#65 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Apr 30, 2018 1:11 pm

oh we could get a trop storm/dep out of this......by what models or showing
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#66 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:34 pm

we getting may i do see bit early for tropical system maybe substropical
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#67 Postby fci » Tue May 01, 2018 2:14 pm

An e-mail from "Hurricane Network"

The Hurricane Network is monitoring the possibility of our first tropical or subtropical cyclone forming south of the Bahamas later this week. The Hurricane Network has issued a Special Tropical Cyclone Outlook outlining this area of interest, giving it a low 20% chance in the next five days for tropical development. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will overspread northern Caribbean.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#68 Postby wxman57 » Tue May 01, 2018 2:43 pm

I was conversing with a friend at the NHC about this feature earlier this morning. Word is that the hurricane specialists are not concerned about it. No special tropical weather outlook is being prepared at this time. I think a brief low center may form, only to be quickly sheared apart. I think I can detect a very weak feature east of the Caribbean along 50W that may be the source.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#69 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat May 05, 2018 9:51 pm

I would start watching the Western Caribbean for potential tropical development after mid-May. Already the GFS has been hinting on and off of this potential, the new-GFS had been even more bullish on this.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#70 Postby gatorcane » Mon May 07, 2018 12:08 pm

12Z GFS long-range but we know the drill:

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#71 Postby ronjon » Mon May 07, 2018 12:09 pm

Ok I'll start the annual GFS phantom storm discussion for the western caribbean - now two runs in a row, lol.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018050712&fh=360
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#72 Postby tolakram » Mon May 07, 2018 12:47 pm

^ EPAC system, sniffing out the first one. Same thing every year. :)
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#73 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon May 07, 2018 12:59 pm

all this tells me though is hurricane season is on its way :)
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#74 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon May 07, 2018 6:01 pm

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#75 Postby StruThiO » Mon May 07, 2018 6:13 pm

:uarrow: Lul

Oh divine GFS, please lend us your infinite wisdom
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#76 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon May 07, 2018 6:19 pm

What’s bad we will be model watching now lol
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#77 Postby BYG Jacob » Mon May 07, 2018 7:11 pm

Is that a hurricane in May? Kek GFS
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#78 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon May 07, 2018 7:13 pm

It's not even June and the GFS is already up to its usual tomfoolery.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#79 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 07, 2018 7:54 pm

Maybe not so laughable JB says.

@BigJoeBastardi
2cnd run in a row GFS day 16 storm. Now its in the Caribbean, MJO heading into favorable phases for mischief after May 15, so perhaps not so laughable




 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/993639591495327746


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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#80 Postby chaser1 » Mon May 07, 2018 9:46 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:Is that a hurricane in May? Kek GFS


Well, if this were to actually verify........ um yeah. Kind of borderline pressure for a minimal hurricane but not unreasonable. The pressures all around are fairly high so given the difference in relative pressure and gradient, I'd guess that 987mb in the N.W. Caribbean would support 65-70 knots.
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