2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
AJC3
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 3065
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: West Melbourne, Florida
Contact:

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#81 Postby AJC3 » Tue May 08, 2018 4:26 am

Well before the week 2 wackiness, all of the global models are forming a weak BI (baroclinically initiated) low near Florida in about a week.
It forms in association with a cutoff 500MB low.
4 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 118604
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#82 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 08, 2018 6:48 am

@BigJoeBastardi
Was laughing before, not laughing any more at GFS longer term MJO forecasted through favorable phases, especially after day 10 ( phase 2) early activity next 10 days Pacific, then perhaps to Gulf, Caribbean or SW ATL day 10 on


 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/993818201858469888


1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 21621
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#83 Postby gatorcane » Tue May 08, 2018 8:53 am

The new FIV3-GFS model is making this quite strong. The FIV3-GFS starts development in 1 week near Nicaragua and sends it north. Hard to believe something like this forms in May, looks more like October. Gets down to 975MB at 246 hours :double:

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue May 08, 2018 8:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6566
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#84 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue May 08, 2018 8:54 am

You gotta be kidding me, right? The new-GFS shows a full-blown hurricane in the Gulf in a week and a half. Talk about an improvement from the current GFS. :lol:

Image
2 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 21621
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#85 Postby gatorcane » Tue May 08, 2018 8:57 am

AJC3 wrote:Well before the week 2 wackiness, all of the global models are forming a weak BI (baroclinically initiated) low near Florida in about a week.
It forms in association with a cutoff 500MB low.


Yeah looks interesting, that should be the catalyst to start the rainy season I would think, good news in that it would start early reducing the length of the "fire season." Looks like the ECMWF has it passing just east of Florida while the GFS is in the Eastern Gulf.

Image
Image
0 likes   

WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4611
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#86 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue May 08, 2018 9:33 am

gatorcane wrote:The new FIV3-GFS model is making this quite strong. The FIV3-GFS starts development in 1 week near Nicaragua and sends it north. Hard to believe something like this forms in May, looks more like October. Gets down to 975MB at 246 hours :double:

[img]https://s18.postimg.cc/kz8xt17h5/fv3p_


I know it is very early in the season to be asking this question...but do you think this could be a major test for the FV3 implementation of the GFS? If this ends up being a phantom storm, then would it make the FV3 look very bad?
1 likes   

User avatar
NotSparta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1211
Age: 18
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#87 Postby NotSparta » Tue May 08, 2018 9:35 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:
gatorcane wrote:The new FIV3-GFS model is making this quite strong. The FIV3-GFS starts development in 1 week near Nicaragua and sends it north. Hard to believe something like this forms in May, looks more like October. Gets down to 975MB at 246 hours :double:

[img]https://s18.postimg.cc/kz8xt17h5/fv3p_


I know it is very early in the season to be asking this question...but do you think this could be a major test for the FV3 implementation of the GFS? If this ends up being a phantom storm, then would it make the FV3 look very bad?


The FV3 has generally the same physics as the GFS operational, which would mean it's little help in the phantom department.
0 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.

My website, tropical wx graphics and blogs: http://cyclonicwx.com

User avatar
NotSparta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1211
Age: 18
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#88 Postby NotSparta » Tue May 08, 2018 9:48 am

FV3 puts a 974mb low over the CV islands :lol:

Image
1 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.

My website, tropical wx graphics and blogs: http://cyclonicwx.com

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3646
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#89 Postby LarryWx » Tue May 08, 2018 9:57 am

NotSparta wrote:FV3 puts a 974mb low over the CV islands :lol:

Image


Actually, this FV3 run and the FV3 runs prior to it initialize a microlow in the 970s at CV and each run keeps it stationary the entire run!

Edit: Looking more closely, it has this right over the highest CV peak, Pico do Fogo, which is over 9,000 feet up:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pico_do_Fogo

This peak seems to be messing with the surface pressure.
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 15060
Age: 56
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#90 Postby tolakram » Tue May 08, 2018 10:25 am

IMO it will put in it the EPAC sooner or later.
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 118604
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#91 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 08, 2018 10:49 am

tolakram wrote:IMO it will put in it the EPAC sooner or later.


In fact,it began with development in EPAC for a few runs. This was on May 4.

Image
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3617
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#92 Postby floridasun78 » Tue May 08, 2018 11:42 am

i think we see epac storm first and our side like we wont see one earliest and late june if happen i think models are going over their head with system next week but i do see fl getting good rain next week with setup i hearing
3 likes   

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3646
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#93 Postby LarryWx » Tue May 08, 2018 11:47 am

floridasun78 wrote:i think we see epac storm first and our side like we wont see one earliest and late june if happen i think models are going over their head with system next week but i do see fl getting good rain next week with setup i hearing


florida,
I agree that the East Pacific is favored but I will caution folks that IF there is El Nino coming (nobody knows), that actually would favor above normal chances for Gulf activity in June.
Of course, just one TC in the GOM in June would be above the normal.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 21621
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#94 Postby gatorcane » Tue May 08, 2018 1:01 pm

FV3-GFS has it again where development starts in the SW Caribbean in about a week or so from now lifting north, 180 image below:

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
NotSparta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1211
Age: 18
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#95 Postby NotSparta » Tue May 08, 2018 1:05 pm

NAVGEM is on board, 1st non-GFS or GEFS model to show it. imo, it's more likely that this disturbance forms in the EPAC, but models like the SW Caribbean

Image
0 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.

My website, tropical wx graphics and blogs: http://cyclonicwx.com

WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4611
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#96 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue May 08, 2018 1:16 pm

FV3 at 240 hours. Just for fun.....

Image


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
1 likes   

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2101
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#97 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue May 08, 2018 1:26 pm

I’m having doubts even with the slight increase in model support, it could be EPAC as well and with possible delays on timeframe with genesis.
2 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 21621
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#98 Postby gatorcane » Tue May 08, 2018 1:30 pm

Wow the FV3 GFS is going bonkers with this system: :double:

Wasn't this model supposed to reduce phantom storms like this?

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6566
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#99 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue May 08, 2018 1:38 pm

gatorcane wrote:Wow the FV3 GFS is going bonkers with this system: :double:

Wasn't this model supposed to reduce phantom storms like this?

Image

If I had to take a guess it looks like a potential convective feedback issues is going to be a MAJOR problem with this new-GFS. Correct me if I’m wrong, Alyono knows more about this.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3646
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#100 Postby LarryWx » Tue May 08, 2018 1:42 pm

:uarrow: Later, the crazy model strengthens it to 970 mb before going onshore and moving to just se of Ocala at 971 mb (hour 300 Sun eve 5/20)!
Last edited by LarryWx on Tue May 08, 2018 1:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: galaxy401, hurricanes1234 and 23 guests