2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability

#21 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:15 am

I personally think warm-neutral is the most likely ENSO for this season. There are some warm anomalies in the subsurface, but they are not that strong. The ECMWF ENSO model also has a high bias. I am not entirely sold on the idea of El Niño yet. Another La Niña year seems unlikely though.

The cooler than normal MDR SSTs is not surprising to me, as it has happened in nearly every winter since 2014. Last year we went from cooler than normal MDR SSTs in April to near record MDR SSTs in June. We will need to watch the evolution of MDR SSTs over the next few months, as I think the very warm MDR SSTs were mainly responsible for 2017's three MDR major hurricanes.

Looks like the 2018 season will be another tricky forecast.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability

#22 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Feb 10, 2018 6:43 pm

Anyone still have last years January ASO MSLP Euro Outlook? The ones NDG posted early on in the 2017 indicators thread aren’t showing anymore.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability

#23 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:27 pm

The +NAO has been dominating the Atlantic for almost 2 months and that is why the MDR has cooled a bit but a negative index will come soon to warm things again.

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability

#24 Postby HurricaneFan » Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:02 pm

Well,I was looking at the NAO chart on the first page and it seems like it is forecasted to go negative,if I'm reading it right, about a 50% chance around the 24th of February?
If so, will the seas for the NE Caribbean calm down from being so rough recently?
How long is the negative NAO expected to last,if it does happen?
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability

#25 Postby NotSparta » Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:17 pm

HurricaneFan wrote:Well,I was looking at the NAO chart on the first page and it seems like it is forecasted to go negative,if I'm reading it right, about a 50% chance around the 24th of February?
If so, will the seas for the NE Caribbean calm down from being so rough recently?
How long is the negative NAO expected to last,if it does happen?


Yes, it will slow the trades and reduce the negative anomalies. With the slower wind, the seas should calm. It looks like a long term one, but I'm not 100% sure there.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#26 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 17, 2018 3:20 pm

NAO Is going to go down fast to negative by the end of Febuary going into March.

Image

Kingarabian,I realized that MSLP ECMWF graphic was for 2017,my bad. :( No new update yet for 2018 MJJ but will come in the next few days.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#27 Postby Alyono » Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:13 am

EC shows even higher pressures than last year for MJJ, but not as low for the EPAC
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#28 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:15 am

Alyono wrote:EC shows even higher pressures than last year for MJJ, but not as low for the EPAC

Has there ever been a year when ECMWF did NOT show high pressures in the Atlantic? Seems to have a high bias with Atlantic SLP as well as ENSO.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#29 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:52 am

CyclonicFury wrote:
Alyono wrote:EC shows even higher pressures than last year for MJJ, but not as low for the EPAC

Has there ever been a year when ECMWF did NOT show high pressures in the Atlantic? Seems to have a high bias with Atlantic SLP as well as ENSO.


From what I seen in the past few years, higher pressures over the Atlantic and El Nino forecast go hand in hand in the seasonal outlook for the Euro. The Euro will show higher pressures (unfavorable conditions) in the Atlantic if it's forecasting a robust El Nino. So as the months progress, if an El Nino is not likely, it starts to drop the pressures and show favorable conditions in the Altantic.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#30 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:34 am

@RyanMaue
A strongly negative NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation is now consistently showing in ECMWF 7-10 day forecasts
My chart shows evolution of NAO index in successive forecasts.


 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/965131042804981760


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#31 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:16 am

This -NAO should warm up the MDR quite a bit, possibly to above average levels. Question is, will it persist, or could we see a +NAO phase before hurricane season that cools the MDR back off? I'm skeptical we'll see a cold MDR for hurricane season, that has been very rare since 1995 (with some notable exceptions being 2000, 2007, and 2014). As long as El Nino doesn't form the Atlantic should be at least active in terms of storm numbers. ENSO is the wild card here. I'm not thinking we will see anything like 1997 or 2015, but a third La Nina is also unlikely with the current setup and climatology. I'd say warm-neutral ENSO with a warmer than normal (but slightly cooler than last year) MDR is the most probable scenario.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#32 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 18, 2018 4:34 pm

@TropicalTidbits
Been a while since I've seen a -NAO pattern like this on the ensemble forecasts. Fun winter implications, but would also impact Atlantic SST profile depending on duration.


 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/965327140572028928




Look how the MDR is on Febuary 18th.

Image

Image

But the Central SubTropical Atlantic is very warm.

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#33 Postby SFLcane » Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:35 pm

Hey Luis, its highly likely the tropical Atl will warm up once again in the coming months but that look you just posted above spells inactive season.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#34 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:34 pm

SFLcane wrote:Hey Luis, its highly likely the tropical Atl will warm up once again in the coming months but that look you just posted above spells inactive season.


Is still early to say for sure how the sst's and anomalies will be when June 1 comes as the ups and downs swings occur.We will have to wait and see how it evolves in the next 3 of months to have a more clear picture.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#35 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 19, 2018 5:58 pm

Does anyone has a daily graphic chart of the important Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index? I would like to have it on the first post with the other graphics.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#36 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:37 am

@MJVentrice
According to our definition of the NAO, models are calling for the all-time strongest -NAO value observed since our archive (beginning in 1980). The record low value since 1980 is from February 2006 (-2.77sigma). We are seeing models call for -3sigma during late February 2018.


 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/966316156071051264


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#37 Postby wxman57 » Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:31 am

Comparing current SSTs throughout the Atlantic and the East Pacific, the best analog I can come up with is 2014, with 1994 as a secondary analog. Both were quiet seasons, with 8 named storms in 2014 and only 7 in 1994. Of course, SSTs are not the only factor to consider.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#38 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:26 pm

I know it’s only late February but it seems that as we progress closer and closer to the 2018 season that it may becoming increasingly likely that this season won’t be hyperactive. I’m not ready to buy into the 2014 analog just yet as that season was only aided by the MJO and that’s why we saw such a weird ratio of hurricanes to named storms. 2007 anyone?
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#39 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:36 pm

With the upcoming strong -NAO, the cold MDR anomalies could flip completely. It has been typical in recent winters to have a spring -NAO flip the Atlantic SST profile and 2018 may be similar.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#40 Postby StruThiO » Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:55 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:With the upcoming strong -NAO, the cold MDR anomalies could flip completely. It has been typical in recent winters to have a spring -NAO flip the Atlantic SST profile and 2018 may be similar.


is the -NAO expected to persist for very long?
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