2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#121 Postby wxman57 » Wed Apr 18, 2018 5:32 am

That cold front didn't have much of an impact on SSTs beyond the immediate coastal waters. NCEP SST anomaly graphic has the Gulf a good bit warmer than normal as of a couple days ago:

Image
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#122 Postby LarryWx » Wed Apr 18, 2018 8:25 am

NDG wrote:
weathaguyry wrote:It appears that the MDR is warming up a little, as well as the waters near and east of Greenland. This probably doesn't mean too much for the hurricane season, since it's only April and the SST anomalies could still change a lot, but it would be interesting if the -AMO look would flip to a more +AMO look.

Image


I really don't trust the CDAS SSTs estimates, it shows at least a 2 deg C drop in SSTs in the BOC during the past 7 days but if you look at the buoy 42055 in that area it only shows 1 deg C drop during the past 7 days.


Don't forget that this map is showing changes in anomalies, not changes in actual temperatures. I think that some of the discrepancy could be explained by the idea that normals rose during the 7 day period. So, the anomaly cooling would be larger than the absolute cooling though I don't know about there being a full 1C difference. That seems a bit high for so far south though perhaps it is right. I mean I guess it is possible that normals rose close to 1C during the 7 day period since this is the time of year with the most rapid rises in anomalies though that seems too rapid for that far south. Opinion?
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#123 Postby Ntxw » Wed Apr 18, 2018 9:43 am

I concur with Larry and this is often the fault of too much focus on "anomaly." You also need to look at actual temps because, as Larry stated above, sst averages change alongside the seasonal changes. SST averages are not static. Especially when you are looking at tenths of a degree there can even be discrepencies between datasets as 'normal'

Anomalies at this time of year is best used for spatial purposes. Below 27C isn't going to be much supporting a hurricane. When the averages rise above 28C is when it becomes a better use which isn't for another couple of months.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#124 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Apr 18, 2018 11:22 am

Regardless of ENSO, the +PMM, to me, seems to be a big negative for the Atlantic. The +PMM indicates very warm SSTs over the eastern North Pacific, to the north of the equator. This pattern has been consistent for several months and favours enhanced convection in this region, implying an active EPAC season. This, alone, tends to induce increased westerly vertical wind shear over the Caribbean and MDR, owing to enhanced outflow from EPAC tropical activity. Additionally, even when accounting for the influence of enhanced SAL and periods of +NAO, the AMO definitely seems to have taken a more negative look over the past few months. Overall, the indicators suggest that the MDR and Caribbean may not be very active in 2018, while the Gulf and subtropical Atlantic may be (relatively) favoured. With a near-to-below-average-season becoming more likely, steering currents will take on premium significance. That is where the PDO comes into play. If a –PDO continues to develop and persist, that, combined with the warm subtropical NW Atlantic, might favour enhanced ridging over or near the East Coast. In that case, whatever develops north of the deep tropics might threaten the U.S. Since storm formation may be concentrated farther north (and east?) this year, the greatest threat might be to the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, New England, and NE Gulf Coast, rather than FL, TX, Mexico, and the Antilles. This does not mean that the threat for landfalls will not exist, but that the areas that suffered so much in 2017 may see a break in 2018, while other areas "out of the woods" in 2017 might come into play in 2018. We shall see.

Possible 2018 combination by ASO: Weak (Modoki?) El Niño / +PMM / –AMO / –PDO. An interesting setup, to say the least...
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#125 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Apr 18, 2018 11:34 am

Image
:uarrow: FWIW, the CFS shows the AMO taking on a more neutral/slightly positive look by peak season, so I I do not think it is a guarantee that the current -AMO look will persist. Considering the likely scenario that the active era is still ongoing, we will likely have about 13-15 named storms with this setup and neutral ENSO (2000 had quite a -AMO look at peak, but thanks to a favorable ENSO, activity was above average). Unless we get a rapidly forming El Niño, I do not think we will see a below average season.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#126 Postby NDG » Thu Apr 19, 2018 6:59 am

LarryWx wrote:
NDG wrote:
weathaguyry wrote:It appears that the MDR is warming up a little, as well as the waters near and east of Greenland. This probably doesn't mean too much for the hurricane season, since it's only April and the SST anomalies could still change a lot, but it would be interesting if the -AMO look would flip to a more +AMO look.

Image


I really don't trust the CDAS SSTs estimates, it shows at least a 2 deg C drop in SSTs in the BOC during the past 7 days but if you look at the buoy 42055 in that area it only shows 1 deg C drop during the past 7 days.


Don't forget that this map is showing changes in anomalies, not changes in actual temperatures. I think that some of the discrepancy could be explained by the idea that normals rose during the 7 day period. So, the anomaly cooling would be larger than the absolute cooling though I don't know about there being a full 1C difference. That seems a bit high for so far south though perhaps it is right. I mean I guess it is possible that normals rose close to 1C during the 7 day period since this is the time of year with the most rapid rises in anomalies though that seems too rapid for that far south. Opinion?


I know that, but CDAS showing a 2+ deg C drop from anomaly is still a 2 deg C drop when the average SST for a particular area is not going to change in only 7 days.
Near the outer banks in NC that's a different story, I was just looking at the coastal water buoys where they show some very wild swings in SSTs, as much as 5 deg C in just a couple of days, I am sure it has to do with the northerly colder coastal currents meeting with the gulf stream and battling over territory.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#127 Postby Steve » Thu Apr 19, 2018 10:53 am

There really wasn't a thread for this, so I'll just put it here.

The NHC has announced that they are shrinking the cone of uncertainty this year among other changes they are implementing. The changes:

1) Shrinking the cone of uncertainty (based on improved results)
2) Extending watches and warnings to 72 hours to give everyone an additional day to prepare based on the improved forecast tracks
3) The Weather Prediction Center which tracks systems once they weaken below depression will begin issuing advisories to better warn the public about ongoing issues
4) they are in the midst of a longer-term look at how it issues warnings as part of a 10 year effort to improve intensity forecasts.

http://www.tampabay.com/hurricane-guide ... _167412939
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#128 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Apr 20, 2018 6:48 am

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#129 Postby OuterBanker » Fri Apr 20, 2018 3:39 pm

NDG wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
NDG wrote:
I really don't trust the CDAS SSTs estimates, it shows at least a 2 deg C drop in SSTs in the BOC during the past 7 days but if you look at the buoy 42055 in that area it only shows 1 deg C drop during the past 7 days.


Don't forget that this map is showing changes in anomalies, not changes in actual temperatures. I think that some of the discrepancy could be explained by the idea that normals rose during the 7 day period. So, the anomaly cooling would be larger than the absolute cooling though I don't know about there being a full 1C difference. That seems a bit high for so far south though perhaps it is right. I mean I guess it is possible that normals rose close to 1C during the 7 day period since this is the time of year with the most rapid rises in anomalies though that seems too rapid for that far south. Opinion?


I know that, but CDAS showing a 2+ deg C drop from anomaly is still a 2 deg C drop when the average SST for a particular area is not going to change in only 7 days.
Near the outer banks in NC that's a different story, I was just looking at the coastal water buoys where they show some very wild swings in SSTs, as much as 5 deg C in just a couple of days, I am sure it has to do with the northerly colder coastal currents meeting with the gulf stream and battling over territory.


NDG,
The wild swings off the NC coast are a common occurrence. In fact, we have had many summers here on the Outer Banks in the summer of a 20 degree drop or rise in less than 24 hrs. Many summers we couldn’t swim because the water temps are in the upper 50’s in July. This is because of the upwelling of the Labrador current when we have strong west winds (land breezes). Wind will shift to the east and the water goes to 80 within a day. It blows the warmer gulf stream water in. Also, the northern beaches (north of Oregon inlet) can be cold while Hatteras island will be warm. As much as 15 to 20 degrees in 20 miles. I guess it’s also why our weather can be so wild and unpredictable.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#130 Postby NDG » Sat Apr 21, 2018 7:46 am

OuterBanker wrote:
NDG wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
Don't forget that this map is showing changes in anomalies, not changes in actual temperatures. I think that some of the discrepancy could be explained by the idea that normals rose during the 7 day period. So, the anomaly cooling would be larger than the absolute cooling though I don't know about there being a full 1C difference. That seems a bit high for so far south though perhaps it is right. I mean I guess it is possible that normals rose close to 1C during the 7 day period since this is the time of year with the most rapid rises in anomalies though that seems too rapid for that far south. Opinion?


I know that, but CDAS showing a 2+ deg C drop from anomaly is still a 2 deg C drop when the average SST for a particular area is not going to change in only 7 days.
Near the outer banks in NC that's a different story, I was just looking at the coastal water buoys where they show some very wild swings in SSTs, as much as 5 deg C in just a couple of days, I am sure it has to do with the northerly colder coastal currents meeting with the gulf stream and battling over territory.


NDG,
The wild swings off the NC coast are a common occurrence. In fact, we have had many summers here on the Outer Banks in the summer of a 20 degree drop or rise in less than 24 hrs. Many summers we couldn’t swim because the water temps are in the upper 50’s in July. This is because of the upwelling of the Labrador current when we have strong west winds (land breezes). Wind will shift to the east and the water goes to 80 within a day. It blows the warmer gulf stream water in. Also, the northern beaches (north of Oregon inlet) can be cold while Hatteras island will be warm. As much as 15 to 20 degrees in 20 miles. I guess it’s also why our weather can be so wild and unpredictable.


That makes sense about the coastal cold Labrador current in your area.
Similar thing happens here in eastern FL from Vero Beach north towards St Augustine just to the west of the gulf stream. Prolonged westerly winds during the summer gets upwelling going, sometimes coastal waters cool all the way down into the low 70s, the water gets very murky and fishy smelling, while the rest of the FL coast have surf temps in the upper 80s.
Tourists get shocked when they visit Daytona Beach of how cool the surf temp is when there's upwelling during the middle of the summer.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#131 Postby NotSparta » Sat Apr 21, 2018 9:06 pm

Of course it's a bit out, but GFS develops a -NAO around hour 162 and keeps it until the end of the run, becoming east based.

Image
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#132 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 22, 2018 7:13 am

The update from ECMWF on MSLP for July,August and September shows the bias towards very high pressures in the Atlantic basin. It had the same for the same period in 2017 and we know what happened.

JAS of 2017:

Image

JAS of 2018:

Image
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#133 Postby LarryWx » Sun Apr 22, 2018 7:50 am

^That's ok, Luis. I'd rather the Euro show the same thing again and take the chance that it won't be wrong again. Fingers crossed that we'll have a much quieter season. It sure would be nice if we can actually get El Niño to form unlike last year's fake out.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#134 Postby NotSparta » Sun Apr 22, 2018 11:03 am

Shear forecasts this far out are usually garbage, especially this time of year, but CFS showing easterly shear in MDR

Image
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#135 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Apr 22, 2018 11:20 am

NotSparta wrote:Shear forecasts this far out are usually garbage, especially this time of year, but CFS showing easterly shear in MDR

Image

Wouldn’t be as bad as westerly shear.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#136 Postby NotSparta » Sun Apr 22, 2018 11:39 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
NotSparta wrote:Shear forecasts this far out are usually garbage, especially this time of year, but CFS showing easterly shear in MDR

[img removed][/img]

Wouldn’t be as bad as westerly shear.


Apparently this is from the AEJ and would portend a strong wave train
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#137 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 30, 2018 12:27 pm

Interesting about MDR not warming fast according to this.

@pppapin
It's pretty unusual to see AWB occurrence in late April/early May on the 350-K sfc.

The net result is llvl anti-cyclogenesis, enhanced NErly trade winds & limited MDR SST recovery. Something to watch as we near the start of the NATL hurricane season.


 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/991001711287422977


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#138 Postby SFLcane » Mon Apr 30, 2018 1:49 pm

Based on outlooks and predictions we should just skip this season? :roll:

Just takes 1 storm folks
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#139 Postby Alyono » Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:03 pm

highly likely there will be a decent number of named storms and canes. Remember, for as hostile as 2014 and 2015 were, there were still 6 hurricanes in 2014 and 11 named storms, plus a near cat 5 in 2015

This year does not look to be anywhere near as hostile as those two years
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#140 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:06 pm

lol I love how yall are writing off this year
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