2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

[Hurricaneman]

Based on what many are seeing and the tracks of storms that have developed I have narrowed down the highest risk areas based on long term patterns and here are the areas

Hamilton Bermuda: 30%
Halifax Nova Scotia: 40%
Portland Maine: 20%
Boston Massachusetts: 30%
Plymouth Massachusetts: 35%
Providence Rhode Island: 40%
Montauk New York: 40%
New York New York: 30%
Atlantic City New Jersey 30%
Wilmington Delaware: 20%
Norfolk Virginia: 40%
North Carolina outer banks: 60%
Wilmington North Carolina: 55%
Myrtle Beach South Carolina: 45%
Charleston South Carolina: 40%
Savannah Georgia: 20%
Jacksonville Florida 20%
Daytona Beach Florida 20%
Melbourne Florida: 20%
Palm Beach Florida: 25%
Miami Beach Florida: 40%
Key West Florida: 35%
Naples Florida 25%
Ft Myers Florida 20%
Tampa Florida 20%
Panama City Florida: 15%
Pensacola Florida 15%
Mobile Alabama 20%
Biloxi Mississippi: 30%
New Orleans Louisiana: 25%
Beaumont Texas: 10%
Houston Texas: 10%
Corpus Christi Texas: 10%
Brownsville Texas: 10%
Nassau Bahamas: 75%
Freeport Bahamas: 75%
Turks and Caicos: 60%
Port Au Prince Haiti: 40%
San Juan Puerto Rico 30%
St Croix: 25%
St Martin 25%
Antigua: 25%
Guadeloupe: 20%
Dominica: 20%
Barbados: 25%
Tobago: 15%
Trinidad: 10%
Havana Cuba: 20%
Cancun Mexico: 30%
Cozumel Mexico: 30%
Belize city Belize: 15%
CV islands: 25%
Cape Race New Foundland: 20%

My scale is this
0 to 10%. Low risk
10 to 20% slight risk
20 to 30% enhanced risk
30 to 40% moderate risk
40% and up high risk

Just because you’re in a low risk zone doesn’t mean no risk and you should have your supplies ready just in case

[Ian2401]

Based on what many are seeing and the tracks of storms that have developed I have narrowed down the highest risk areas based on long term patterns and here are the areas

Hamilton Bermuda: 30%
Halifax Nova Scotia: 40%
Portland Maine: 20%
Boston Massachusetts: 30%
Plymouth Massachusetts: 35%
Providence Rhode Island: 40%
Montauk New York: 40%
New York New York: 30%
Atlantic City New Jersey 30%
Wilmington Delaware: 20%
Norfolk Virginia: 40%
North Carolina outer banks: 60%
Wilmington North Carolina: 55%
Myrtle Beach South Carolina: 45%
Charleston South Carolina: 40%
Savannah Georgia: 20%
Jacksonville Florida 20%
Daytona Beach Florida 20%
Melbourne Florida: 20%
Palm Beach Florida: 25%
Miami Beach Florida: 40%
Key West Florida: 35%
Naples Florida 25%
Ft Myers Florida 20%
Tampa Florida 20%
Panama City Florida: 15%
Pensacola Florida 15%
Mobile Alabama 20%
Biloxi Mississippi: 30%
New Orleans Louisiana: 25%
Beaumont Texas: 10%
Houston Texas: 10%
Corpus Christi Texas: 10%
Brownsville Texas: 10%
Nassau Bahamas: 75%
Freeport Bahamas: 75%
Turks and Caicos: 60%
Port Au Prince Haiti: 40%
San Juan Puerto Rico 30%
St Croix: 25%
St Martin 25%
Antigua: 25%
Guadeloupe: 20%
Dominica: 20%
Barbados: 25%
Tobago: 15%
Trinidad: 10%
Havana Cuba: 20%
Cancun Mexico: 30%
Cozumel Mexico: 30%
Belize city Belize: 15%
CV islands: 25%
Cape Race New Foundland: 20%

My scale is this
0 to 10%. Low risk
10 to 20% slight risk
20 to 30% enhanced risk
30 to 40% moderate risk
40% and up high risk

Just because you’re in a low risk zone doesn’t mean no risk and you should have your supplies ready just in case

Really interesting discussion! Curious as to what your methodology was in deciding the percentages for each region, i.e. what were factors taken into consideration that made one region more susceptible than another?

[SFLcane]

Trying to post link from twitter from mobile device it has not worked for a while. I will leave it here.

We are going to have to start watching those tropical disturbances early this year for the Greater Antilles, South East Coastline, and East Coast Riders. High dominating. Trofs from west dominating. Disturbances gaining latitude with time. Blog entry soon.

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/ ... 20544?s=21

[Haris]

Hmm

[Ntxw]

MDR has cooled again now that the MJO has left the maritime continent. As caution to not extrapolate weekly changes as seasonal trends.

[NotSparta]

MDR has cooled again now that the MJO has left the maritime continent. As caution to not extrapolate weekly changes as seasonal trends.

Based on how it's cooling, looks like SAL is the main culprit

[Ntxw]

MDR has cooled again now that the MJO has left the maritime continent. As caution to not extrapolate weekly changes as seasonal trends.

Based on how it's cooling, looks like SAL is the main culprit

There was significant SAL earlier in the month when it was warming. Beryl was in a good spot when this occured.

[OuterBanker]

Based on what many are seeing and the tracks of storms that have developed I have narrowed down the highest risk areas based on long term patterns and here are the areas

SNIP

Kim

60% Really, thanks a lot. I guess it could be worse, I could live in the Turks and Caicos which I consider this side of heaven.

[cycloneye]

@MJVentrice
After a couple weeks of warming, the Atlantic's Main Development Region has started to cool again. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are still net cooler than average across most of the MDR. SSTs will trend warmer/cooler pending the sign of the zonal wind anomaly at the surface.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1021361404400545793

[NDG]

Hopefully this sypnotic set up over the next few days will not stick around through the rest of the hurricane season

[cycloneye]

@ToddKimberlain
@MJVentrice How often does a Kelvin wave this strong not produce any TCs after its passage? Not when the centroid of large-scale rising motion is in the EH. Models show no uptick in activity. #tropics

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1021463580955348994




@MJVentrice
You know, I was looking at this. The one thing that suggests activity may not enhance over the Atlantic is the persistence of anomalous upper-level westerlies across the eq. Atlantic, even during the passage of the active Kelvin wave. The deep easterlies develop o/Africa only

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1021478191528075266

[TheStormExpert]

The weather pattern currently across the U.S. definitely shouts springtime not summer. Not writing off the remainder of the season but what does this mean (if anything) for the prime season of August 20th-October 20th which is just a few weeks away.

[CyclonicFury]

The weather pattern currently across the U.S. definitely shouts springtime not summer. Not writing off the remainder of the season but what does this mean (if anything) for the prime season of August 20th-October 20th which is just a few weeks away.

The pattern over the US being springlike is not necessarily an indicator of a weak/quiet season. This time last year, I remember there was a nor'easter and some were saying it was a sign of a weak season because we "never left the winter pattern." The indicators that actually matter are MDR SSTAs and ENSO.

[Siker]

The weather pattern currently across the U.S. definitely shouts springtime not summer. Not writing off the remainder of the season but what does this mean (if anything) for the prime season of August 20th-October 20th which is just a few weeks away.

The pattern over the US being springlike is not necessarily an indicator of a weak/quiet season. This time last year, I remember there was a nor'easter and some were saying it was a sign of a weak season because we "never left the winter pattern." The indicators that actually matter are MDR SSTAs and ENSO.

Yep, was reading the indicators thread from last year and there was a discussion in late July of “big trough this must mean 2013 all over again”. People pointed out that these happen sometimes (e.g. 2004) and are a good predictor of nothing.

[NDG]

The weather pattern currently across the U.S. definitely shouts springtime not summer. Not writing off the remainder of the season but what does this mean (if anything) for the prime season of August 20th-October 20th which is just a few weeks away.

The pattern over the US being springlike is not necessarily an indicator of a weak/quiet season. This time last year, I remember there was a nor'easter and some were saying it was a sign of a weak season because we "never left the winter pattern." The indicators that actually matter are MDR SSTAs and ENSO.

Yep, was reading the indicators thread from last year and there was a discussion in late July of “big trough this must mean 2013 all over again”. People pointed out that these happen sometimes (e.g. 2004) and are a good predictor of nothing.

Like I mentioned earlier this morning, I do not like to see a trough pattern over the interior US and a big strong Bermuda ridge, this would spell big trouble for at least the eastern US later on the season.

[TheStormExpert]

The pattern over the US being springlike is not necessarily an indicator of a weak/quiet season. This time last year, I remember there was a nor'easter and some were saying it was a sign of a weak season because we "never left the winter pattern." The indicators that actually matter are MDR SSTAs and ENSO.

Yep, was reading the indicators thread from last year and there was a discussion in late July of “big trough this must mean 2013 all over again”. People pointed out that these happen sometimes (e.g. 2004) and are a good predictor of nothing.

Like I mentioned earlier this morning, I do not like to see a trough pattern over the interior US and a big strong Bermuda ridge, this would spell big trouble for at least the eastern US later on the season.

Geez, that Bermuda High just popped out of nowhere after being nearly completely absent for several months. Hope this is short-lived.

[TheStormExpert]

@ToddKimberlain
@MJVentrice How often does a Kelvin wave this strong not produce any TCs after its passage? Not when the centroid of large-scale rising motion is in the EH. Models show no uptick in activity. #tropics

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1021463580955348994




@MJVentrice
You know, I was looking at this. The one thing that suggests activity may not enhance over the Atlantic is the persistence of anomalous upper-level westerlies across the eq. Atlantic, even during the passage of the active Kelvin wave. The deep easterlies develop o/Africa only

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1021478191528075266

Last time a Kelvin wave passed we were surprised with two early season hurricanes (Beryl, and Chris). I wouldn’t be looking too much into the models for storms as they’ve been quite horrible this season, especially the Euro.

[Kingarabian]

@ToddKimberlain
@MJVentrice How often does a Kelvin wave this strong not produce any TCs after its passage? Not when the centroid of large-scale rising motion is in the EH. Models show no uptick in activity. #tropics

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1021463580955348994[tweet]

@MJVentrice
You know, I was looking at this. The one thing that suggests activity may not enhance over the Atlantic is the persistence of anomalous upper-level westerlies across the eq. Atlantic, even during the passage of the active Kelvin wave. The deep easterlies develop o/Africa only

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1021478191528075266[tweet]

Yep, we were just talking about this on the EPAC thread.

Based on the latest CFS, by mid-August, we could see systems develop in the MDR, but shear conditions don't look favorable in the E-Caribbean. W-Caribbean looks favorable as well as the GOM. Sub tropics look really favorable this year.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Yea, this is a really, really bad steering pattern for the US if this holds into August/September. Massive ridge off the NE CONUS. Doesn't need to be a hyperactive season with this type of setup to bring severe impacts to the US.

[meriland29]

Yea, this is a really, really bad steering pattern for the US if this holds into August/September. Massive ridge off the NE CONUS. Doesn't need to be a hyperactive season with this type of setup to bring severe impacts to the US.

That is an extremely large ridge. If that ends up being the reality, then ti would be worth noting sheer and the water temperature, especially seeing as the ATL is on a slight cooling trend atm and the sheer has been relatively high.