2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

[toad strangler]

Ventrice not buying either aside from N Atlantic sub tropical slop.

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1043105249479806976

[blp]

Let's see if this turns out to be true. Still not buying it yet.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1042871402762665990

Why no buy?

I think just having upward motion may not be enough. Looks like shear and the general background state don't appear to be favorable in the Carribean basin. Issac showed us a lot of this. It never took off even it in pockets of favorable shear. Not all the dynamics were there. I also think the active sub tropics are playing a roll in the suppressing the MDR.

[Ntxw]

What happens the rest of the way will likely be dictated in the Caribbean. Late season activity tends to rely on this region (this year the subtropics seems to be it) for ACE count. If the Caribbean remains uninviting for hurricanes then 2018 will be remembered for a heavy 2 week period in early September. If things can change in the Caribbean, then the next bout of CCKW/rising motion in early October could yield a storm or two. Heat content is not the issue in the Carib, rather it is the atmosphere that has been a lid there.

Almost half of the season's ACE to date came with one storm, Florence in the 2 week period.

[tolakram]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1042401458619080704

For the life of me I can't figure out why the twitter links are not working when pasting from mobile but have no issue on a PC.

Because the mobile version links to mobile.twitter.com instead of twitter.com If you take off the mobile. it should work.

[cycloneye]

Look at the reply to Eric Blake by Avila.

 https://twitter.com/canedancerlix/status/1043494515477233674

[toad strangler]

Look at the reply to Eric Blake by Avila.

Look at what Josh Morgerman says about N of 30 degrees

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1043285829047791616

[hurricaneCW]

If the background state were a little more favorable then this season could have easily been an active one and possibly a very dangerous one. Isaac might have become a big deal, 98L could've redeveloped, the next couple of invests would have been huge threats.

Still it's too early to say that it's over, early October may indeed bring out another flurry of significant systems.

[Ntxw]

Look at the reply to Eric Blake by Avila.

Look at what Josh Morgerman says about N of 30 degrees

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1043285829047791616

Josh could probably chase Icelandic/Aleutian lows that go sub 950mb in winter for same results that far north .

That's rough opinion from Avila though I'm surprised. Slops, yes but got to wait and see if they actually do anything.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1043537420850028545

[Steve]

I’ll listen to Blake all day over Dr. Avila. I liked maybe 3% of his discussions. He was a constant downcaster and often underplayed scenarios. He was probably my least favorite and the least interesting to read in the decades I’ve followed the NHC.

[toad strangler]

Looking at the 12Z GFS long range shear forecast, heavy sheer relaxing over the SW Caribbean N into the GOM

Days 10-14


Days 11-15


Days 12-16

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/Cyclonebiskit/status/1043561891929325568



 https://twitter.com/Cyclonebiskit/status/1043561900313796608

[Visioen]

Look at the reply to Eric Blake by Avila.
https://twitter.com/canedancerlix/statu ... 5477233674

Apparently he changed his mind:

 https://twitter.com/canedancerlix/status/1043502820547330048

[chaser1]

[quote="toad strangler"][/quote]

So perhaps equally surprisingly I'm guessing Webb is already predicting the next CCKW that's hot on it's heals in the E. Pacific, will pop a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean in the next few days as well??? #CCKWhindsight

[toad strangler]

Ventrice is tepid about the next few weeks.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1043841811855421441

[SFLcane]

Ventrice has been back an forth all year in terms of development basin wide if he were even half right the Cape Verde season would have been a no show. Now I do agree the Caribbean has been very hostile all year

[Hammy]

Something interesting with all these subtropical systems is it seems we're seeing them during the suppressive MJO/Kelvin phases.

[SFLcane]

We shall see...

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1045262488835567616

[Shell Mound]

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2018/09/26/science.aat6711
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01377-8
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/research_highlight/the-role-of-atlantic-overturning-circulation-in-the-recent-decline-of-atlantic-major-hurricane-frequency/

Weakening AMOC due to climate change -> fewer MH overall and in deep tropics (Atlantic) / more RI cases close to land (subtropics, N America) — former study underestimates link between MH activity and AMOC state vs. that between MH activity and ATL MDR minus global tropical SSTA — latter better indicator on a seasonal scale, former over longer (climate) scales — note that while ATL MH activity may decrease due to climate change via AMOC, MH that do form may be slightly stronger in a warming climate — maybe more opportunities for 1935-type events over the Gulf, FL Straits, and Gulf Stream

[NDG]

No denial that the MJO is in our side of the world.