2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#181 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 09, 2018 9:12 am

@TropicalTidbits
Models trending stronger with -AMO Atlantic config for summer, which would tend to suppress hurricane activity.

This is the least favorable Atlantic forecast since 2015.

However, seasonal forecasts do not tell you if a hurricane will hit. Remember Joaquin in 2015? Be prepared!


 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/994217771591401472


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#182 Postby StruThiO » Wed May 09, 2018 9:17 am

Image

MDR anomalously warming up quite quickly right now.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#183 Postby StruThiO » Wed May 09, 2018 10:55 am

now levi is dropping the dreaded m word

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/994243823520841728


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#184 Postby AtlanticWind » Wed May 09, 2018 11:36 am

Climate change skeptics feel free to ignore this post.

Just a question , if we are indeed seeing changes to our climate as the arctic is warming at
steady rate ,and are oceans absorbing much more heat is it fair to think that maybe
a lot of assumptions on what determines the activity level in the tropics will and maybe are
already changing.

Just a thought .
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#185 Postby LarryWx » Wed May 09, 2018 12:07 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:Climate change skeptics feel free to ignore this post.

Just a question , if we are indeed seeing changes to our climate as the arctic is warming at
steady rate ,and are oceans absorbing much more heat is it fair to think that maybe
a lot of assumptions on what determines the activity level in the tropics will and maybe are
already changing.

Just a thought .


Well, supposedly a TC is there to bring up heat from the tropics to the higher latitudes. If the higher latitudes are warming more quickly, is there as much of a need for TCs to bring up heat to higher latitudes? I don't know. This is just food for thought.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#186 Postby chaser1 » Wed May 09, 2018 12:48 pm

LarryWx wrote:
AtlanticWind wrote:Climate change skeptics feel free to ignore this post.

Just a question , if we are indeed seeing changes to our climate as the arctic is warming at
steady rate ,and are oceans absorbing much more heat is it fair to think that maybe
a lot of assumptions on what determines the activity level in the tropics will and maybe are
already changing.

Just a thought .


Well, supposedly a TC is there to bring up heat from the tropics to the higher latitudes. If the higher latitudes are warming more quickly, is there as much of a need for TCs to bring up heat to higher latitudes? I don't know. This is just food for thought.


Healthy and intriguing discussion. Both points are good. What happens if/when the whole "heat transfer" system simply begins to run-amok? Might this simply "shut down" the tropics from transferring energy pole-ward? Perhaps in spite of any potential arctic warming, a net result might be an even increased rapidity of arctic warming due to a continued or even increased heat transfer flow from the tropics, pole-ward? If the latter were plausible, then i'd suppose an argument would have to be made that world-wide tropical regions (not just the Atlantic) are either producing distinctly more tropical cyclones, more intense tropical cyclones, or longer duration tropical cyclone seasons.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#187 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Wed May 09, 2018 4:30 pm

Africa looked very similar to this last year around this same time. Waves look mightily strong. Just something to consider. I am still thinking things like this play a large role in how a season pans out.

Image
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#188 Postby NotSparta » Wed May 09, 2018 6:12 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:Africa looked very similar to this last year around this same time. Waves look mightily strong. Just something to consider. I am still thinking things like this play a large role in how a season pans out.

[img]https://s9.postimg.cc/6v5pgu6rj/ghfghfghgfh.png[img]


I have noticed this too. With a -AMO signature, this would mean the difference between true -AMO era inactivity and an average-above average season (not if the MDR warms at all)
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#189 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 09, 2018 6:32 pm

From one of those who works at NHC.

@ToddKimberlain
Strength of Atlantic subtropical ridge (& trades) winter/spring often a harbinger of #hurricane activity (explains up to 30% of the variance). + NAO this winter/spring = enhanced trades = oceanic upwelling/cool tropical Atlantic SSTs & possibly an inactive #hurricaneSeason2018


 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/994351836005126144


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#190 Postby Alyono » Wed May 09, 2018 9:07 pm

cycloneye wrote:From one of those who works at NHC.

@ToddKimberlain
Strength of Atlantic subtropical ridge (& trades) winter/spring often a harbinger of #hurricane activity (explains up to 30% of the variance). + NAO this winter/spring = enhanced trades = oceanic upwelling/cool tropical Atlantic SSTs & possibly an inactive #hurricaneSeason2018


 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/994351836005126144




no longer at NHC
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#191 Postby LarryWx » Thu May 10, 2018 1:24 am

Here's some trivia or maybe even minutia:

TC origins east of 80 W 1851-2015
5/1-10: 1
5/11-20: 8
5/21-31: 3
6/1-10: 3
6/11-20: 5
6/21-30: 8

So, there were as many or more geneses east of 80W during 5/11-20 than during any other 10-11 day period in all of May and June! There were twice as many during 5/11-20 as during 5/1-10 and 5/21-31, combined, and as many as during 6/1-20!
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#192 Postby Shell Mound » Thu May 10, 2018 4:03 pm

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#193 Postby SFLcane » Thu May 10, 2018 5:46 pm

sst’s Have returned to near normal across the mdr region.

Image
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#194 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu May 10, 2018 5:48 pm

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#195 Postby NotSparta » Thu May 10, 2018 5:52 pm

Shell Mound wrote: https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/994240253409021953



--rest of tweets removed--


Well, yeah, we're behind 2017. 2017 was a near record warm year, if you compare to it, it'll probably be cooler.

Also, MJO is not the only driver. If it were, it would mean that 2017's warm up was a result of the MJO getting stuck in the ATL for a month.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#196 Postby Shell Mound » Fri May 11, 2018 6:50 am

The sharp decrease in the AMO since January roughly mirrors what happened in 2013, albeit at an earlier date. In early 2013, the AMO was strongly positive, leading to forecasts for an active season. However, the AMO later declined sharply and never fully recovered by peak season, although it did warm up a bit. Additionally, while neutral ENSO officially prevailed, the actual forcing and convective pattern over the Pacific was El Niño-like, hence above-average westerly vertical shear over the tropical Atlantic by ASO. Additionally, this pattern helped contribute to an enhanced TUTT and above-average sea-level pressure (enhanced low-level trades) over the MDR, leading to a very inactive season. In 2013 and 2015, most of the activity that did form was either homegrown, especially in the Gulf and near the Bahamas, or formed close to West Africa. Joaquin (2015) was an example of the former; Humberto (2013), Danny (2015), and Fred (2015), the latter. Storms that formed near West Africa tended to rapidly strengthen before encountering sinking air (subsidence) and shear over the MDR, which then caused them to weaken quickly and dissipate. I think 2013 and 2015 are good analogs for the type of season we may see this year, with a very low level of overall activity and storm formation near the continental U.S. and West Africa. If a significant storm is to hit the mainland U.S. in 2018, it will almost certainly be a redux of Carol (1954), Diana (1984), Bob (1991), or some similar type of homegrown major (outside the deep tropics), not a storm that forms in the MDR or Caribbean.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#197 Postby NotSparta » Fri May 11, 2018 6:58 am

Sounds like the season is already over. :lol:

:uarrow: also, 2013 is an analog? Was there a THC crash I missed? Besides, TC activity was down globally that year
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#198 Postby StruThiO » Fri May 11, 2018 7:10 am

I think Shell Mound could be onto something and I respect their analysis. Indeed, the MDR is much different than last year, so far. However, 2013 was as anomalous as 2005 was, as has said on here previously, you cannot loosely compare a year with mediocre (but not cold) MDR temperatures, an unknown ENSO state, etc, to the least active season in decades. As for 2015, same thing because it featured a record-breakingly strong El Nino. Other than that, I have to agree. Interestingly, (I know these change but for the sake of it) the current TC frequency anomaly for the top five analogs on TropicalTidbits demonstrates EXACTLY what he discusses: Homegrown systems with a dash of West African coast.

Image
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#199 Postby NotSparta » Fri May 11, 2018 7:14 am

Shell Mound wrote:The sharp decrease in the AMO since January roughly mirrors what happened in 2013, albeit at an earlier date. In early 2013, the AMO was strongly positive, leading to forecasts for an active season. However, the AMO later declined sharply and never fully recovered by peak season, although it did warm up a bit. Additionally, while neutral ENSO officially prevailed, the actual forcing and convective pattern over the Pacific was El Niño-like, hence above-average westerly vertical shear over the tropical Atlantic by ASO. Additionally, this pattern helped contribute to an enhanced TUTT and above-average sea-level pressure (enhanced low-level trades) over the MDR, leading to a very inactive season. In 2013 and 2015, most of the activity that did form was either homegrown, especially in the Gulf and near the Bahamas, or formed close to West Africa. Joaquin (2015) was an example of the former; Humberto (2013), Danny (2015), and Fred (2015), the latter. Storms that formed near West Africa tended to rapidly strengthen before encountering sinking air (subsidence) and shear over the MDR, which then caused them to weaken quickly and dissipate. I think 2013 and 2015 are good analogs for the type of season we may see this year, with a very low level of overall activity and storm formation near the continental U.S. and West Africa. If a significant storm is to hit the mainland U.S. in 2018, it will almost certainly be a redux of Carol (1954), Diana (1984), Bob (1991), or some similar type of homegrown major (outside the deep tropics), not a storm that forms in the MDR or Caribbean.


Imo, these are pretty bad analogs. The EPAC in 2013 was below average, and spring-like conditions ruled during peak. That is extremely unlikely this year.

In 2015, not only was the AMO more negative than this year, but there was a Super Niño during peak. That is not happening this year, and a super Niño Walker cell configuration isn't likely this year. Even ignoring these factors, the PDO was much higher than now, at nearly record positive levels. The PDO is slightly negative currently.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#200 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri May 11, 2018 7:52 am

I think the western half of the MDR and eastern Caribbean will be the least favorable parts of the basin this season. The rest of the basin will likely have near or above average activity IMO. I do not think we are headed for a year as quiet as 2013/15. Remember, a cooler than normal MDR does not necessarily equal a dead season! 1996 and 2000 are examples - both seasons had a cooler than normal MDR at peak season and ended up with above average activity. A significant El Niño is unlikely this year, looking at other models besides the Euro, which has a high bias with ENSO. Overall, I think it’s almost certainly 2018 will be less active than 2017, but I do not think 2018 will be historically quiet - a season about average seems more likely IMO.
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