2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#361 Postby antimatter78 » Sat Jun 09, 2018 10:17 pm

Where did you get the vertical instability graphs from? Thanks!
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#362 Postby NotSparta » Sun Jun 10, 2018 5:30 am

antimatter78 wrote:Where did you get the vertical instability graphs from? Thanks!


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#363 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jun 10, 2018 12:20 pm

One area to keep an eye on is the area south of Central America in the Eastern EPAC. Those waters are running above normal and look to be trending even more above normal the past couple of months. That could induce higher than normal shear across the Western Caribbean and Gulf.

Image
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#364 Postby NDG » Sun Jun 10, 2018 6:41 pm

gatorcane wrote:One area to keep an eye on is the area south of Central America in the Eastern EPAC. Those waters are running above normal and look to be trending even more above normal the past couple of months. That could induce higher than normal shear across the Western Caribbean and Gulf.

Image


I don't agree, at thought the same until I went back, that same area was very warm during '04 & '05, '08...among a few, it sure didn't affect the shear over the Caribbean in those years. Nino 1+2 has more impact over the Caribbean, IMO.

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#365 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:34 am

Big saharan air layer outbreak that covers all the Tropical Atlantic.

Image
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#366 Postby chaser1 » Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:15 am

:uarrow: WOW :crazyeyes: Those of you kiddies there in the Islands, don't forget to leave your beach pails and shovels outside when you go to bed at night. In the morning, you might be rewarded with your pail suddenly half full with sand!
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#367 Postby NotSparta » Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:51 am

cycloneye wrote:Big saharan air layer outbreak that covers all the Tropical Atlantic.

Image


SAL season is beginning.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#368 Postby chaser1 » Mon Jun 11, 2018 9:03 am

I didnt think Uncle SAL's flight was due in for a least a couple weeks :ggreen: Guess he's early :sled:
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#369 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jun 11, 2018 9:36 am

NDG wrote:
gatorcane wrote:One area to keep an eye on is the area south of Central America in the Eastern EPAC. Those waters are running above normal and look to be trending even more above normal the past couple of months. That could induce higher than normal shear across the Western Caribbean and Gulf.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anoma ... 7.2018.gif


I don't agree, at thought the same until I went back, that same area was very warm during '04 & '05, '08...among a few, it sure didn't affect the shear over the Caribbean in those years. Nino 1+2 has more impact over the Caribbean, IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/ZLo8RXI.gif


That's a good point, I had thought there was a discussion on this board in a prior season about the waters south of Central America contributing to enhanced shear across the Western Caribbean but you do bring up some supporting evidence those waters don't matter really. Perhaps the only impact could be enhanced EPAC cyclone activity in that region which would inherently decrease Western Caribbean activity during those times the EPAC was active?
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#370 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:18 am

NotSparta wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Big saharan air layer outbreak that covers all the Tropical Atlantic.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/Umk8zBx.jpg


SAL season is beginning.


@MJVentrice
Saharan Air Layer Outbreaks over the tropical Atlantic are commonly generated as the convectively suppressed phase of a strong CC Kelvin wave (or it's low-level easterly wind phase) pushes across West Africa during boreal Summer - see Fig. 6 in Ventrice et al. 2012b

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1006161485469507585


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#371 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:09 pm

Of course the long-wave pattern come peak months of the hurricane season is impossible to predict but one thing is for sure, so far there has been a weak to little Bermuda High and in fact 10-day Euro animation of 500MB Height anomalies shows a lot of troughiness over the Western Atlantic and lack of Bermuda High as we roll into late June:

Image
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#372 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:55 pm

gatorcane wrote:Of course the long-wave pattern come peak months of the hurricane season is impossible to predict but one thing is for sure, so far there has been a weak to little Bermuda High and in fact 10-day Euro animation of 500MB Height anomalies shows a lot of troughiness over the Western Atlantic and lack of Bermuda High as we roll into late June:

[://s22.postimg.cc/hboq17c0h/ecmwf_z500a_Norm_atl_fh0-240.gif[/img]


That is interesting considering the NAO has been extremely positive for months with the occassional dip into negative territory. Forecast for next week is positive again. Perhaps there is more to the strength of the Bermuda High than just positive/negative NAO.

Image


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#373 Postby StruThiO » Mon Jun 11, 2018 4:39 pm

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#374 Postby hurricanetrack » Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:01 pm

Guess it matters which method you use/look at. While SSTs are most certainly below avg., the NOAA/NESDIS is not nearly as "dramatic looking" in terms of the cool. And - MDR has warmed considerably in recent days to weeks, still has a long way to go but it's not like water temps are in the 50s lol.

Let's see what it all looks like on August 20 when the real season commences....

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#375 Postby NotSparta » Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:24 pm

double post
Last edited by NotSparta on Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#376 Postby NotSparta » Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:26 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Of course the long-wave pattern come peak months of the hurricane season is impossible to predict but one thing is for sure, so far there has been a weak to little Bermuda High and in fact 10-day Euro animation of 500MB Height anomalies shows a lot of troughiness over the Western Atlantic and lack of Bermuda High as we roll into late June:

[://s22.postimg.cc/hboq17c0h/ecmwf_z500a_Norm_atl_fh0-240.gif[/img]


That is interesting considering the NAO has been extremely positive for months with the occassional dip into negative territory. Forecast for next week is positive again. Perhaps there is more to the strength of the Bermuda High than just positive/negative NAO.

[img]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180611/0f3fc4b817eff66eed51f71e50d460b1.gif[img]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Bermuda High is quite strong. It is further to the east, meaning a trough can survive west.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#377 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:31 pm

NotSparta wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Of course the long-wave pattern come peak months of the hurricane season is impossible to predict but one thing is for sure, so far there has been a weak to little Bermuda High and in fact 10-day Euro animation of 500MB Height anomalies shows a lot of troughiness over the Western Atlantic and lack of Bermuda High as we roll into late June:

[://s22.postimg.cc/hboq17c0h/ecmwf_z500a_Norm_atl_fh0-240.gif[/img]


That is interesting considering the NAO has been extremely positive for months with the occassional dip into negative territory. Forecast for next week is positive again. Perhaps there is more to the strength of the Bermuda High than just positive/negative NAO.

[img]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180611/0f3fc4b817eff66eed51f71e50d460b1.gif[img]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Bermuda High is quite strong. It is further to the east, meaning a trough can survive west.

That’s the Azores High. The Bermuda High is just an westward extension of it which you see from time to time. The last 2-3 summers it was a semi-permanent feature.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#378 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:28 am

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#379 Postby Siker » Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:16 pm

Euro has anomalously weak trade winds in much of the MDR over the next 10 days. May help SST's rise out of their record breaking slump.

Image
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#380 Postby NotSparta » Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:11 pm

Siker wrote:Euro has anomalously weak trade winds in much of the MDR over the next 10 days. May help SST's rise out of their record breaking slump.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/8cp50br.png[img]


Looks like another case of +NAO that would usually cause enhanced trades, but with a high so north shifted that the effects of the stronger high do not materialize in the MDR. I think that's what happened when it warmed early last month
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