2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#341 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Jun 05, 2018 11:36 am

Hammy wrote:There's been an unusually high amount of troughiness in the southeast, accompanied by below normal temperatures (something the models indicate will continue for the foreseeable future, especially beyond next week)--is there anything that can be read from this as far as the season goes other than a possibly reduced East Coast risk?


The NAO just went negative a few days ago so this could explain the troughiness. I am just curious though. Around when did you notice this throughiness starting? I am just trying to learn more about the trough/NAO relationship. Perhaps it is possible to have strong trough’s even during +NAO events??

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#342 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jun 05, 2018 11:38 am

gatorcane wrote:
Hammy wrote:There's been an unusually high amount of troughiness in the southeast, accompanied by below normal temperatures (something the models indicate will continue for the foreseeable future, especially beyond next week)--is there anything that can be read from this as far as the season goes other than a possibly reduced East Coast risk?


Yes noticed that too here in South Florida. There has just been a complete lack of an "east wind pattern" in the spring and early rainy season this year which features a strong Bermuda High and storms pushed along the west coast of Florida. In fact even recently it is difficult to even get a seabreeze to develop and push inland along coastal SE Florida the past several days which is nothing like we have seen the past few years at this time. The past few years, we have seen quite a stubborn east wind pattern that would hold on for sometimes weeks at a time. This could very well mean the return of the "semi-permanent" east coast trough and a weaker Bermuda High feature come the peak months but as always it is too early to say for sure. That is why at least for Florida, I would say any threats could originate from the south (Caribbean) (or "close by" development) rather than Cape Verde long-trackers like Irma from last year.

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Just posted a similar statement just yesterday evening in the Florida weather thread. You’ve read my mind! :lol:

Btw, I hate bringing back the term “Semi-Permanent” East Coast Trough as just two years ago that term was being overused on here. Some may remember who it was I am referring to.

TheStormExpert wrote:Also compared to the last several summers the Bermuda High is nonexistent so far. Looks like we are back to (dare I say it) that "Semi-Permanent" East Coast Trough that is known to steer hurricanes out to sea away from the U.S. Of course with the nearly record cold MDR I'm even wondering if there will even be anything of significance to have to worry about from the east this hurricane season. Our problems may be from the south and west in the Western Caribbean which in a setup like this wouldn't be good. Just think of Wilma.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#343 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jun 05, 2018 11:47 am

For whoever is interested here’s a look at the first current major June SAL outbreak. It’s stretching all the way well into the Caribbean and very soon will be on the doorstep of Florida.

As we saw last June and July we are now into the peak months for these outbreaks and just like last year they’re likely a poor indicator of what’s to come this season in terms of intensity of the season is concerned.

 https://twitter.com/jimcantore/status/1003935779373113344




 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1003974838640414720


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#344 Postby Kazmit » Tue Jun 05, 2018 1:12 pm

The EPac seems to be ramping up a bit now– I don't think we'll see anything for at least the next few weeks.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#345 Postby Hammy » Tue Jun 05, 2018 4:40 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Hammy wrote:There's been an unusually high amount of troughiness in the southeast, accompanied by below normal temperatures (something the models indicate will continue for the foreseeable future, especially beyond next week)--is there anything that can be read from this as far as the season goes other than a possibly reduced East Coast risk?


The NAO just went negative a few days ago so this could explain the troughiness. I am just curious though. Around when did you notice this throughiness starting? I am just trying to learn more about the trough/NAO relationship. Perhaps it is possible to have strong trough’s even during +NAO events??

Image


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It appears that it's in the beginning stages but is showing up much more prominently in the model runs after a few days, with what appear to be fronts making it all the way down to S FLorida.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#346 Postby NDG » Tue Jun 05, 2018 5:21 pm

Hammy wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
Hammy wrote:There's been an unusually high amount of troughiness in the southeast, accompanied by below normal temperatures (something the models indicate will continue for the foreseeable future, especially beyond next week)--is there anything that can be read from this as far as the season goes other than a possibly reduced East Coast risk?


The NAO just went negative a few days ago so this could explain the troughiness. I am just curious though. Around when did you notice this throughiness starting? I am just trying to learn more about the trough/NAO relationship. Perhaps it is possible to have strong trough’s even during +NAO events??

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201806 ... f31201.gif


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


It appears that it's in the beginning stages but is showing up much more prominently in the model runs after a few days, with what appear to be fronts making it all the way down to S FLorida.


Too bad these "fronts" will not bring us cooler or lower dewpoints.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#347 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:32 pm

June Euro seasonal TC forecasts are in. Euro went about 0.2C to 0.3C warmer for Aug-Oct in Nino 3.4 region. Only 7.7 named storms (July-Nov) with 3.5 hurricanes. ACE 50% of normal. I'm beginning to really like 1985 as an analog. A bit below normal number-wise, but with at least 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls, mostly in the SE U.S.

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#348 Postby Hurricane Mike » Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:08 pm

wxman57 wrote:June Euro seasonal TC forecasts are in. Euro went about 0.2C to 0.3C warmer for Aug-Oct in Nino 3.4 region. Only 7.7 named storms (July-Nov) with 3.5 hurricanes. ACE 50% of normal. I'm beginning to really like 1985 as an analog. A bit below normal number-wise, but with at least 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls, mostly in the SE U.S.


Hurricane Elena, Hurricane Gloria, and Hurricane Kate were all significant storms. To say nothing of Hurricane Bob, Hurricane Danny and Hurricane Juan. I always think of 1985 as the most active of the 80s. Perhaps it wasn't that favorable in hindsight but I always thought it was active.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#349 Postby LarryWx » Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:39 pm

Hurricane Mike wrote:
wxman57 wrote:June Euro seasonal TC forecasts are in. Euro went about 0.2C to 0.3C warmer for Aug-Oct in Nino 3.4 region. Only 7.7 named storms (July-Nov) with 3.5 hurricanes. ACE 50% of normal. I'm beginning to really like 1985 as an analog. A bit below normal number-wise, but with at least 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls, mostly in the SE U.S.


Hurricane Elena, Hurricane Gloria, and Hurricane Kate were all significant storms. To say nothing of Hurricane Bob, Hurricane Danny and Hurricane Juan. I always think of 1985 as the most active of the 80s. Perhaps it wasn't that favorable in hindsight but I always thought it was active.


Its ACE was 88, which was right on the median ACE for 1951-2000 and slightly below the mean of 93. The # of NS/H/MH were a fairly average 11/7/3. So, for the overall Atlantic basin, it was a pretty average year.

However, the # of different Hs that hit the CONUS was remarkably high with 6! Only 1886 had more with its 7 and 2004 is the only other with 6. So, at the time, it had the most Hs hit the CONUS since way back in 1886! So, 1985 is tied with 2004 for the 2nd highest # of Hs that hit the CONUS. Only 2005, 1933, 1909, and 1893 had 5 different Hs that hit the CONUS. So, for the CONUS, alone, it was one of the most active years on record.
Last edited by LarryWx on Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:16 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#350 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jun 06, 2018 3:43 pm

Hurricane Mike wrote:
wxman57 wrote:June Euro seasonal TC forecasts are in. Euro went about 0.2C to 0.3C warmer for Aug-Oct in Nino 3.4 region. Only 7.7 named storms (July-Nov) with 3.5 hurricanes. ACE 50% of normal. I'm beginning to really like 1985 as an analog. A bit below normal number-wise, but with at least 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls, mostly in the SE U.S.


Hurricane Elena, Hurricane Gloria, and Hurricane Kate were all significant storms. To say nothing of Hurricane Bob, Hurricane Danny and Hurricane Juan. I always think of 1985 as the most active of the 80s. Perhaps it wasn't that favorable in hindsight but I always thought it was active.


As I often say, the determination of "active" vs. "non-active" usually depends on whether or not you were impacted. ACE was only 88 in 1985, which is relatively "quiet". My mother's home on the Mississippi coast was without power for 2 weeks after Elena. I remember when Elena was developing and I suggested that my mother purchase the generator she'd been debating. When Elena turned toward the Florida Peninsula she complained that she had bought the generator for nothing. The moral of that story is never complain when it looks like you won't get hit.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#351 Postby NDG » Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:41 pm

wxman57 wrote:June Euro seasonal TC forecasts are in. Euro went about 0.2C to 0.3C warmer for Aug-Oct in Nino 3.4 region. Only 7.7 named storms (July-Nov) with 3.5 hurricanes. ACE 50% of normal. I'm beginning to really like 1985 as an analog. A bit below normal number-wise, but with at least 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls, mostly in the SE U.S.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/tra ... 5_base.gif


Actually 6 hurricanes made US landfall: Bob, Danny, Elena, Gloria, Juan & Kate.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#352 Postby psyclone » Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:47 pm

Elena was such a fascinating storm...from it's development and intensification over Cuba to that insane track in the Gulf. Some people had to evacuate twice. There is some great footage of the storm on YouTube and someone uploaded about 8 minutes of Tampa weather radio broadcasts when the storm was on approach to Cedar Key...in it they emphasized the storm's uncertain track. Thank goodness track forecasts have improved since then. And it emphasizes that we can have a very impactful season even with modest ACE with close in development. With the MDR looking hostile we could well see a year of homebrew action in the Gulf, west Caribbean and off the southeast coast...all the more reason to be ready for quick action. We don't always get a week's leadtime.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#353 Postby NDG » Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:00 pm

psyclone wrote:Elena was such a fascinating storm...from it's development and intensification over Cuba to that insane track in the Gulf. Some people had to evacuate twice. There is some great footage of the storm on YouTube and someone uploaded about 8 minutes of Tampa weather radio broadcasts when the storm was on approach to Cedar Key...in it they emphasized the storm's uncertain track. Thank goodness track forecasts have improved since then. And it emphasizes that we can have a very impactful season even with modest ACE with close in development. With the MDR looking hostile we could well see a year of homebrew action in the Gulf, west Caribbean and off the southeast coast...all the more reason to be ready for quick action. We don't always get a week's leadtime.

Yes Elena's track was fascinating, I remember going to City Park in Nola when I was a kid on a Sunday beautiful afternoon when we all thought it was going to make landfall in FL when the word started spreading around in the park that it was heading back towards the central Gulf Coast, we were all in shocked.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#354 Postby crownweather » Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:58 pm

1985 was the year that really got me interested in not only meteorology, but more specifically tropical storms and hurricanes. Gloria was my first (and only) hurricane that I experienced. In hindsight, winds probably barely reached hurricane force where I grew up on the New Hampshire seacoast, but as a 11 year old kid experiencing that was unreal. The interesting part about Gloria is that it almost didn't make it east of 45W Longitude and really didn't start catching steam until it passed north of the Lesser Antilles.

As a side note, you can relive the 1985 Hurricane Season on YouTube. There is a 11 part series (about 10-12 minutes for each individual video) that covered each landfalling or near landfalling storm that year using clips from The Weather Channel, local news media and national news media. Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZturdeRpUg
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#355 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jun 07, 2018 3:44 am

1985 was actually being mentioned yesterday in closest reference to the current state of the Tropical Atlantic SST's by CSU's Phil K.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1004399748688707585




Even former NHC director Dr. Rick Knabb mentioned how just because the Tropical Atlantic will likely be nearly completely dead doesn't mean a quiet season.

 https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1004519724498202629


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#356 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:05 am

NDG wrote:
wxman57 wrote:June Euro seasonal TC forecasts are in. Euro went about 0.2C to 0.3C warmer for Aug-Oct in Nino 3.4 region. Only 7.7 named storms (July-Nov) with 3.5 hurricanes. ACE 50% of normal. I'm beginning to really like 1985 as an analog. A bit below normal number-wise, but with at least 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls, mostly in the SE U.S.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/tra ... 5_base.gif


Actually 6 hurricanes made US landfall: Bob, Danny, Elena, Gloria, Juan & Kate.


I wasn't so sure about Juan being classified as a hurricane at landfall (not saying it wasn't, just don't remember). I do remember briefing a client in south Louisiana as Juan's center was about over Lafayette. The client asked where Juan's strongest winds were at the time and I told him that they were hundreds of miles away over the Florida Peninsula. There was no wind of significance across south Louisiana. It wasn't much of a tropical system after landfall.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#357 Postby cajungal » Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:34 am

I barely remember Juan because I was only 9. It wasn't a wind event. But I lived in Terrebonne parish and there was tremendous flooding through the parish. Someone said Halloween was even cancelled but don't remember that.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#358 Postby Steve » Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:33 pm

wxman57 wrote:
NDG wrote:
wxman57 wrote:June Euro seasonal TC forecasts are in. Euro went about 0.2C to 0.3C warmer for Aug-Oct in Nino 3.4 region. Only 7.7 named storms (July-Nov) with 3.5 hurricanes. ACE 50% of normal. I'm beginning to really like 1985 as an analog. A bit below normal number-wise, but with at least 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls, mostly in the SE U.S.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/tra ... 5_base.gif


Actually 6 hurricanes made US landfall: Bob, Danny, Elena, Gloria, Juan & Kate.


I wasn't so sure about Juan being classified as a hurricane at landfall (not saying it wasn't, just don't remember). I do remember briefing a client in south Louisiana as Juan's center was about over Lafayette. The client asked where Juan's strongest winds were at the time and I told him that they were hundreds of miles away over the Florida Peninsula. There was no wind of significance across south Louisiana. It wasn't much of a tropical system after landfall.


We got 3 or so days of rainfall. The streets would flood every time a band would come through because it had rained enough to saturate the ground prior. It was a pretty cool system, and we did get some winds in New Orleans though nothing major. It was also kind of a Subtropical Hurricane/Storm in that it had a lot of similarities with Gulf winter storms which we don't get that often. The old timers in South Lafourche still talk about that one as numerous coffins floated up out of the ground. It was worst around Galliano, Cut Off, Golden Meadow where they got well over 15" of rain, and over 50,000 homes flooded in Louisiana.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#359 Postby Hurricane Mike » Thu Jun 07, 2018 2:19 pm

It will be interesting to see what Juan is eventually re-analyzed at. I know operationally Hurricane Gloria was said to have 140 mph winds while passing by Cape Hatteras. This was later greatly decreased in the final report. I am kinda surprised how hyped Gloria was. She was a powerful hurricane at sea, no doubt, but was a weakening mess. Bad hurricane, for sure...but apparently the media hype was insane.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#360 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Jun 09, 2018 10:32 am

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